NFL 2018 Draft Thread

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Yes, it's that time of the year, where all of us pretend we pay as much attention to this crap as Legion and become experts on all the college players we really never bothered to watch. It's draft time, a time when every pick not made by the Jets looks good in retrospect, where mock drafts are spawned dozens of times a day, and the Jacksonville Jaguars pick in the top fiv . . .

IMAGE(http://u.cubeupload.com/MilkmanDanimal/WhoWhat.gif)

Good God, what has happened to the world I once knew.

I do like mock drafts. I generally enjoy how pundits have to change them up to get more page views, so wind up doing increasingly silly things as time goes by. The year Winston and Mariota went 1-2, NFL Village Idiot Bucky Brooks (NOT A FAN) decided to do a mock draft where no QBs were drafted. This is the sort of thing that happens as the draft approaches; as every logical pick has been made, it starts getting silly.

Two I enjoyed recently, both from CBS Sports:

First, somebody named R.J. White did a full mock draft. Like, every single pick of every single round. It's ludicrous. It's got a couple dozen trades, even. It's hilariously silly.

Second, a bunch of writers got together to play GM and start drafting. Why is this one fun? Because it has the Patriots trading up to the #4 slot to take Sam Darnold. Sure, what the hell.

I have broken down lots of film, and by that I mean I once dropped a VHS tape and the plastic case cracked. Based on that level of expertise (which, realistically speaking, is about what Mel Kiper had when he started being an "expert"), here is my mock draft.

1. Cleveland Browns: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming. I think this is a terrible idea. One of Football Outsiders' mantras on QBs can be simply broken down to "accurate in college, accurate in the pros". It's a stat where players don't tend to improve, and they point out Matt Ryan is a rare case in that he got notably better in the pros. Josh Allen is not an accurate QB, but has so much potential. And big hands. So, basically, he won't fumble the ball, he just won't throw it notably near his WR.

2. New York Giants: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State. Fourth year RBs go in the top 10, right? I think logically the Giants should get a QB of the future, or, barring that, replace JPP with Chubb or grab Quentin Nelson to shore up the line so Eli has more than 0.7 seconds to throw the ball. Hey, who's the Giants GM? Oh, it's Dave Gettleman, who never, ever, ever showed a predilection for collecting RBs.

3. New York Jets: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. I honestly think Mayfield even looks like Johnny Manziel. He's brash and has attitude and is probably the third or fourth-best QB in this class. Darnold and Rosen look like more solid prospects as traditional QB, but GMs and coaches love players like Allen and Mayfield because they have POTENTIAL, and it allows them to show their utter genius by drafting them and turning them into superstars.

4. Buffalo Bills: Sam Darnold, QB, USC, Tiny little hands and all. Cleveland gets both the later picks plus a few incidental later picks switch hands.

5. Denver Broncos: Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State. Thought about Rosen, but, really, Elway's apparently enough of an arrogant dickball as a GM that I think he thinks he can keep Case Keenum rolling. Vonn Miller gets a buddy.

6. Indianapolis Colts: Quintin Nelson, G, Notre Dame. At some point, having Andrew Luck repeatedly murdered means offensive line might potentially have to become a priority. Nelson's a good one. I mean, or so I'm told. I don't actually watch college football, so, you know, grain of salt and all.

7. Miami Dolphins: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA. Bucs trade back, getting next year's first rounder as well. Miami finally gives up on Ryan Tannehill being eternally ready to finally turn the corner and become something other than a decent QB. Also, it's my mock draft, so if anybody gets bonus picks, it's Tampa.

8. Chicago Bears: Tremaine Edwards, LB, Virginia Tech. Roquan Smith is another viable option. I mean, the Bears could draft pretty much anybody at this point and it would help.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Derwin James, S, Florida State. Two years ago, the Bucs moved down and grabbed an extra pick, which they then used to trade up for one of the worst kickers we've seen in years. So that was great. In this case, they jump up to get ahead of Oakland so they can get James, whose first act in Tampa will hopefully be loading Chris Conte into one of those cannons and firing him into the bay. SF gets even more picks, which realistically speaking they'll probably spend on beauty products for Jimmy.

10. Oakland Raiders: Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB, Alabama. Versatile defender who could succeed in any number of schemes, none of which are in Oakland because Jon Gruden is going to burn that team to the ground.

11. San Francisco 49ers: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia. Hey, didn't the 49ers draft some linebacker last year?

IMAGE(http://u.cubeupload.com/MilkmanDanimal/aeAwkward.gif)

I've never actually done a mock draft before, so 11 picks is enough. Lamar Jackson gets to a spot short of Jacksonville, and somebody else drafts him for great humor. The Ravens draft somebody boring. The Saints good draft luck from last year balances out and they draft syphilis.

Milkman wrote:

1. Cleveland Browns: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming. I think this is a terrible idea. One of Football Outsiders' mantras on QBs can be simply broken down to "accurate in college, accurate in the pros". It's a stat where players don't tend to improve, and they point out Matt Ryan is a rare case in that he got notably better in the pros. Josh Allen is not an accurate QB, but has so much potential. And big hands. So, basically, he won't fumble the ball, he just won't throw it notably near his WR.

It's important to point out that Matt Ryan threw for just shy of 60% completion in college while Josh Allen has managed 56%. That's way, way lower though not quite Kyle Boller low.

The other player worth mentioning is Matthew Stafford as he three for 57% in college. Now we're talking! Josh Allen does have a future.

Well, wait, take a gander at Josh Allen's college career:

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/9TYynSS.png)

Now compare that to Stafford:

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/X51W5wa.png)

Number end up kind of the same, but we get there by two vastly different ways. One improved all through college while the other looks more like someone the Jets would take.

Josh Allen is a turd. A physically gifted turd, but a turd nonetheless. Can a turd ever turn out to contain gold? Absolutely. All Josh Allen needs is time in a quality developmental environment which is exactly what the Browns won't give him. If Allen was taken outside of the 1st round he'd be a tantalizing prospect, but as a potential 1st overall pick he's going to end up starting too soon.

He's the perfect pick for the Browns to continue their tradition. I almost hope they do take two QBs so they can at least get one with decent potential.

Once Josh Allen is drafted, the top player at each skill position from the 2016 Wyoming offense will be in the NFL. The team's leading running back, wide receiver, and tight end are already there.

Remember that next time someone tries to spin the tale that Josh Allen had "nobody around him". He had guys that made the NFL playing against a Mountain West Conference schedule. Marginal NFL players, granted, but all 3 made the active roster for multiple games. AND all 3 took the field on offense and recorded catches or carries. They weren't just practice squad guys or guys that only took special teams snaps.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

11. San Francisco 49ers: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia. Hey, didn't the 49ers draft some linebacker last year?

IMAGE(http://u.cubeupload.com/MilkmanDanimal/aeAwkward.gif)

Roquan Smith would be a worthwhile pick regardless of Foster's status.

I saw him mentioned in MMQB as drawing Ray Lewis comparisons, but that's not really accurate. Smith isn't a stack-and-shed middle linebacker that can take on lead blockers. Instead, he's Telvin Smith 2.0. An undersized, range-y guy that can drop in coverage, or chase down runners sideline-to-sideline. As such, if he were on the 49ers, he wouldn't be a replacement for Foster per se, but a guy to fill one of the outside spots (quick, name a 49ers OLB from last year... yeah. It'll be better if Malcolm Smith returns from injury to play his first game in a 49ers jersey, but still need someone on the other side).

If there's a Hall of Famer comparison to be made for Roquan Smith, it's not Ray Ray, it's Derrick Brooks.

Of course, this means that drafting Roquan Smith doesn't solve any MLB void that Foster may leave behind, so the team could well be looking at LB more than once this draft. Brock Coyle isn't the answer.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

3. New York Jets: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. I honestly think Mayfield even looks like Johnny Manziel. He's brash and has attitude and is probably the third or fourth-best QB in this class. Darnold and Rosen look like more solid prospects as traditional QB, but GMs and coaches love players like Allen and Mayfield because they have POTENTIAL, and it allows them to show their utter genius by drafting them and turning them into superstars.

I'm going to say some stuff here in defense of Baker Mayfield.

Of every short QB that has come after Russell Wilson who has been defended with the "a QB being short doesn't matter, look at Russell Wilson" argument, Mayfield is probably the one who has the best legitimate chance of actually playing NFL football similar to Russell Wilson.

Most of these short QBs have failed to generate NFL caliber throwing power. Wilson is a freak in this category, generating more torque and throwing power than a 5'11" body is usually capable of. His throwing power was never called into question by anyone that actually watched him. Most of the short QBs that have followed have been deficient in this area, especially when it comes to generating that power on the move. That is one of Wilson's most elite traits.

Mayfield does not live up to Wilson's mark in that regard, but he is FAR closer to it than the rest of the recent short QB pack. His throws never lack velocity, and he has the core strength to generate that power while on the move. More importantly, he is able to maintain accuracy while throwing with power. If I had to bet my life on Baker Mayfield or Josh Allen hitting a stationary target with a throw, I'm betting on Baker.

And now I am going to say other things about Baker Mayfield.

What is one thing short QB extraordinaires Wilson and Drew Brees have in common? An over-the-top throwing motion with a high release point.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/y951Cal.png)

I screen grabbed this from a YouTube video, it's such a great illustration. You can just see the top of Wilson's head, but you can sure see his throwing motion uses every bit of extension he can get from his arm, and releases over the top of the pack.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/HsfSTaN.jpg)

Here's what Wilson's throwing motion looks like head-on. You can see just how vertical his arm is.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/6ejMI62.jpg)

For another comparison, here is Jimmy Garoppolo. I include* him because at 6'2", he's still on the shorter side of the starting QB spectrum, in that "tall enough" category rather than the "ideal height" category. His release isn't as exactly vertical as Wilson's, but his arm angle is still reasonably tight to his body. The taller you are, the wider that angle can be (which is why Philip Rivers can throw damn near sidearm, you can do that at 6'5").

*: also I include him because I am going to force Garoppolo into every conversation I possibly can this year. I'm ready to be obnoxious with it, and also be obnoxious about pointing out my intention to be obnoxious.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/zBrqgbd.png)

Here's Baker Mayfield's release. Now, this isn't a Rivers-like 3/4 release or anything. If this was a 6'3" quarterback, it wouldn't even be worth mentioning. But as a 6-foot-zero-and-5/8" quarterback, that angle isn't doing his release height any favors. It's less vertical than Garoppolo's, and obviously way less vertical than Wilson's.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/xzisfCy.jpg)

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/6n201SD.png)

It's not bad, but it's not the kind of height-compensating vertical release Brees and Wilson have.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/WQEw4DM.png)

I hadn't shown Brees yet. Not only is he reaching as high as he possibly can, he's damn near on his tippy toes to do it.

So, besides his release point, my concerns with Mayfield include his pass placement, and the drifting around the pocket he does in an attempt to find throwing lanes. He's not yet good enough at compensating for his height shortcomings in the pocket. Many times you will see him with a clean pocket, but he's drifting around trying to find a lane. Both Brees and Wilson have to battle with this too, and their offenses are designed to help them do so. (Brees' offense spreads the defense out and does their passing plays almost exclusively out of the shotgun, Wilson's puts him on the move, and avoids throws he can't get good angles on, eg. the short middle). Mayfield will have to find a way to make his height work in an NFL pocket passing context.

Also, I am 100% on Ryan Leaf's side when Leaf compares Mayfield to himself, and says that one of the defining hurdles Mayfield will have to clear is how he handles losing and failure. He won over teammates with his brash, defiant attitude, and it has served him well to this point when people have doubted his abilities, but they play defense in the NFL unlike the Big 12, and he's going to have more failure than he's ever had at any other level of football. And he doesn't strike me as one that's super well equipped to deal with it.

Hmm, who else is 6 feet tall and throws 3/4?

IMAGE(https://cdn-s3.si.com/s3fs-public/2013/09/manziel-storyimage800.jpg)

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

The Saints good draft luck from last year balances out and they draft syphilis.

OH GOD YES I HOPE SO

My final 2018 QB Rankings:

1. Josh Rosen
2. Lamar Jackson

EVERYONE ELSE

Football Outsider's QBASE pointed out that Darnold has only started two years, so I'm putting him in the Blake Bortles pile of two-year-starter busts. At worst, he'll be Jameis Winston, but I don't feel good enough about Darnold anymore to put him on my list.

Yes, my list is two QBs. These are the only two QBs I'd draft before 4th round.

Baker Mayfield is an interesting prospect but has so many caveats, much like Josh Allen, that I wouldn't waste my time unless I'm taking two of the QBs (like the Browns maybe should do).

I honestly don't understand why every article and mock draft doesn't have Rosen and Jackson going 1-2. Well, obv why the mocks don't, but they should talk about Rosen being best and Jackson being 2nd best.

FWIW, I would rank the QBs in the order that I want the Browns to take them

1. Josh Rosen (I want to root for a liberal who does charity work with the poor)
2. Josh Allen (he is the only QB that says he wants to play for CLE)
3. Lamar Jackson (I think if he holds up he will be exciting)
4. Sam Darnold (nothing against the guy, I jsut think he is 4th on this list)
...
50. Baker Mayfield (but hey, JFF 2.0)

Too bad I've seen other Bortles videos where he comes of a total bro. He's pretty decent bro here, not hitting on the host bro.

My QB board looks like this:

Tier 1 (top 10 picks)
1. Josh Rosen. Very similar to Jared Goff as a prospect: a guy that makes throws at every level, has good arm strength (albeit not elite), excellent ball placement, and routinely makes NFL throws all over the field. Lots of Matt Ryan here, much like Goff. Not a guy whose personality sets hearts on fire, but a more reserved guy that speaks with his performance, which works for Aaron Rodgers and is starting to work for Goff.

Tier 2 (mid-to-late 1st)
2. Sam Darnold. Darnold has capable throwing power, he was mostly accurate on a play-by-play basis despite some bad turnovers, and he throws with anticipation. His problems largely stem from his feet, which he screws up in incredibly consistent, repeatable ways. Coaches are looking at that tape and preparing to beat those habits out of him. There's reason to believe that a whole lot of Darnold flaws can improve with some specific fixes to his footwork. He requires a lot of polish, but not Josh Allen-like barrels of it, and while he's not as exciting as Lamar Jackson, he's also less scheme dependent.

3. Lamar Jackson. Lack of consistent accuracy and concern with boundary throws slide Jackson down a little from where Deshaun Watson went a year ago. Probably the best QB at working through progressions after Rosen. Elite running ability is a weapon. A lot of his issues stem from footwork, which is an issue of Darnold's too, but Darnold's throwing power gives him more margin for error. Jackson has more of a "flick" delivery than really driving the ball, which can be great for a short timing pass game, but you don't see him driving many passes on out patterns to the sideline. Jackson won't fit in every offense, and needs things tailored to his strengths, but he has some amazing upside.

Tier 3 (late 1st to early 2nd)
4. Josh Allen. Where do you draft a guy with the tools of Carson Wentz but not the knowledge or (relative) polish? Late 1st is my window. As I always say, I'll take a chance on a legit NFL arm, but within reason. Late 1st to early 2nd is reason, somewhere in that Joe Flacco, JP Losman, Kyle Boller range. When we get away from the craziness of considering him the 1st overall pick, we can acknowledge that he could just be some intensive NFL-caliber coaching away from turning those raw tools into quality quarterbacking.

Tier 4 (2nd-3rd round)
5. Baker Mayfield. I made my post above about my concerns with Mayfield. Only two QBs have gone in round 2 in the past two drafts: DeShone Kizer and The Hack. Mayfield is a better prospect than them, so I'm comfortable with a round 2 grade. Mayfield doesn't put very many bad plays on tape (except on dashcams). Maturity and character concerns really hurt him in my eyes more so than his height or mechanical issues. Russell Wilson comparisons are too lofty, but put in the right situation, he ought to be able to Jeff Garcia it up. That is, if his head is screwed on straight and he can deal with not being the elite guy.

6. Mason Rudolph. Like Allen, he's got that prototypical QB size. Unlike Allen, he improved each year. He can make the boundary throws you want an NFL QB to make. He's not as agile as being a former TE might make you expect, as he's a bit heavy-footed, but not a complete statue. His progression reads aren't great, but he has long-ball ability. Probably a year away from being ready to take the field, but in a less crowded QB class, he'd be getting some more attention.

7. Kyle Lauletta. He's smaller (right at the Garoppolo line of 6'2"), athletic, has a quick release, good feet, and is highly scheme-limited because of a lack of top-end arm strength. Gets mocked to the Patriots a lot as the "next Garoppolo", though he's closer to an Alex Smith type. If he has just enough arm to hang in the NFL, he has starter potential. If he doesn't, he'll wash out. Where he looks to be is very borderline.

Weird, nary a mention of what a turd Josh Allen is.

This is the Internet where you should be Hot Taking All the Time.

garion333 wrote:

Weird, nary a mention of what a turd Josh Allen is.

I can't do him like that.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/OBzMmBo.png)

From yesterday's Ask Vic.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/r1x3tRy.png)

YUP.

*Legion* wrote:
garion333 wrote:

Weird, nary a mention of what a turd Josh Allen is.

I can't do him like that.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/OBzMmBo.png)

I want you to know this inspired me to look up where Fresno is for the very first time in my life and I turned 48 last week so clearly Fresno has been a priority for me. Between Allen, Trent Dilfer, and Derek "6-10 the rest of my life thanks to Jon Gruden " Carr I'm beginning to think Fresno may not be the Cradle of Quarterbacks.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Derek "6-10 the rest of my life thanks to Jon Gruden " Carr

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/BSVWYRT.jpg)

That's what a franchise QB looks like.

Fresno Derek Carr will be practicing against ex-Panther CB Daryl Worley, assuming Worley can stay out of jail. Worley should be good for Carr's confidence!

*Legion* wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Derek "6-10 the rest of my life thanks to Jon Gruden " Carr

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/BSVWYRT.jpg)

That's what a franchise QB looks like.

I try not to judge people based on appearance but Derek you are not making that easy please spend some of that contract money on a haircut that does not involve hedge trimmers KTHXBYE

David was always the one with the hair.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/wYItoeo.jpg)

But we all know who the leading man is these days:

Mittens!

I don't remember much about Carr's stint with the Panthers except for his hands, man:

IMAGE(https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/carolina-panthers-backup-quarterback-david-carr-warms-prior-to-game-picture-id112932497)

True fact: After Carr got hurt in that '07 season, it took both an 86-year-old Vinny Testaverde (who retired again after the season) and 12-year-old Matt Moore (who's on a roster somewhere still, I think) to replace him.

That's something, I tell ya.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/bn1Ig2T.jpg)

*Legion* wrote:

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/bn1Ig2T.jpg)

Quality humor right there.

I have decided the Browns take a QB at #1 and jump up to #2 to take Barkley, as the Giants can then take Nelson or Chubb at #4 at the Jets are guaranteed a QB, so the Giants get bonus picks and still get their player.

Cowboys - Have fun losing in the playoffs

So they are going to make the playoffs?

I'll take it.

Abu5217 wrote:
Cowboys - Have fun losing in the playoffs

So they are going to make the playoffs?

I'll take it.

Dream big, son.

Looking forward hopefully to an OL for the #7 pick.

karmajay wrote:

Looking forward hopefully to an OL for the #7 pick. to another 5-foot-10 cornerback.

There's like three cornerbacks who could go in round 1 that fail to crack 5-foot-11, including one that could legitimately go at #7, Denzel Ward.

karmajay wrote:

Looking forward hopefully to an OL for the #7 pick.

Be specific; the only OL worth the #7 pick is OG Quenton Nelson. If the Bucs take somebody else that high it would be Aguayo territory in terms of wasting value.

If the Bucs keep the #7 pick, they're taking Nelson, Chubb, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, or Saquon Barkley. Hopefully they're trading down and getting a load from the Bills or Dolphins because they're panicking for a QB, but, if not, it's one of those five.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
karmajay wrote:

Looking forward hopefully to an OL for the #7 pick.

Be specific; the only OL worth the #7 pick is OG Quenton Nelson. If the Bucs take somebody else that high it would be Aguayo territory in terms of wasting value.

If the Bucs keep the #7 pick, they're taking Nelson, Chubb, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, or Saquon Barkley. Hopefully they're trading down and getting a load from the Bills or Dolphins because they're panicking for a QB, but, if not, it's one of those five.

Nelson, obviously.

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