NFL 2018 Offseason Thread

When I said "a" quarterback, I meant someone other than THAT quarterback.

Rat Boy wrote:

Just wanted to make sure this was on this page as well!

karmajay wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:

Just wanted to make sure this was on this page as well!

That's just cruel, but I think it should be on every page of the thread going forward and the regular season thread as well

Let's just get Milkman's eventual post out of the way:

*Legion* wrote:

Let's just get Milkman's eventual post out of the way:

I would never

IMAGE(http://u.cubeupload.com/MilkmanDanimal/IdrisElba.gif)

do such a

IMAGE(http://u.cubeupload.com/MilkmanDanimal/662NicCage.gif)

thing.

IMAGE(http://u.cubeupload.com/MilkmanDanimal/laughing.gif)

Sir, I am WOUNDED, I tell you.

Edit: Also, going back to the Week 9 thread, regarding Bortles:

Bortles has positive DYAR and DVOA per FO, and, while he’s not great in either (20th and 19th, respectively), he’s not actually awful this year. I want you to know I’m in no way whatsoever hoping Bortles turns it on in the latter half of the season, leading the Jaguars a game or two into the playoffs, and inspiring the team to give him a massive, Flacco-esque extension based on him finally turning the corner. Because that would be wrong.

OH MY GOD I'M A PRECOG EXCEPT THE CONTRACT ISN'T QUITE BIG ENOUGH.

This whole thread ...

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It's definitely not Flacco-esque, thank god. From the sound of it, they've lowered his 2018 cap number, and can cut him in 2019 with some manageable dead cap money.

My guess at this point is that they intend to draft a QB, either this year or next, and having a new QB on a rookie deal will make having that dead space easier.

I also expect that, by week 6, everyone in Jacksonville is going to see vintage Bortles in action, and say, "why did we bother?"

But hey, everyone make sure to tune in to GWJ chat this April on draft day, and watch me freak out as the Jags pass on drafting a QB in rounds 1 and 2.

Pretty sure everyone has been saying, and is currently still saying, "Why did we bother?"

LET'S MAKE FUN OF SOME OTHER QUARTERBACK NOW

Geno Smith jumped into the flat earth "debate", only conceding the earth is round after being buried under a mountain of tweets with evidence and/or ridicule.

PFT has a post about how much a steal Dak is for the Cowboys. Well, duh. He was a mid-round pick and is on a rookie contract.

The crazy thing is the list of QBs who made more than him. There's the starters, but there's also this insane list:

Drew Stanton, Colt McCoy, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, Paxton Lynch, Derek Anderson, Landry Jones, Brandon Weeden, Matt Barkley, Ryan Mallett, Mark Sanchez, Case Keenum, Ryan Griffin, Matt Moore, Scott Tolzien, Teddy Bridgewater, Tyler Bray, DeShone Kizer, Christian Hackenberg, Kellen Clemens, Dan Orlovsky, Luke McCown, Josh Johnson, Joe Webb, Davis Webb, Chase Daniels, C.J. Beathard, Jimmy Garoppolo, T.J. Yates, Blaine Gabbert, Austin Davis, Ryan Nassib, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, Sean Mannion, EJ Manuel, Matthew McGloin, Kellen Moore, Thad Lewis, Connor Cook, Josh Hobbs, Bryce Petty, and David Fales.

Dak will get his payday soon enough. Mid-round means cheaper but also means no option year. He will likely get his extension next offseason. Just like Derek Carr and Russell Wilson, you only play out 3 of your 4 cheap rookie contract years, then the 4th year gets torn up and replaced in an extension.

The other option is playing them all 4 years, and then using the franchise tag (ie. the Kirk Cousins plan), but that makes things harder because you have less leverage than you do with a guy who hasn't made any real money yet, and it can complicated things (ie. the Kirk Cousins plan).

I hope Kirk stays in DC because I'd prefer to live in a world where Washington is eternally an 8-8 team that watches the playoffs from the couch.

I LIKE THAT!

*Legion* wrote:

Dak will get his payday soon enough. Mid-round means cheaper but also means no option year. He will likely get his extension next offseason. Just like Derek Carr and Russell Wilson, you only play out 3 of your 4 cheap rookie contract years, then the 4th year gets torn up and replaced in an extension.

The other option is playing them all 4 years, and then using the franchise tag (ie. the Kirk Cousins plan), but that makes things harder because you have less leverage than you do with a guy who hasn't made any real money yet, and it can complicated things (ie. the Kirk Cousins plan).

It’s always a good weekend when the Browns aren’t the sole subject of ridicule on here.

Wait till the draft when they still don't draft a QB.

Or they draft Josh Allen 1.1.

*Legion* wrote:

It's definitely not Flacco-esque, thank god. From the sound of it, they've lowered his 2018 cap number, and can cut him in 2019 with some manageable dead cap money.

My guess at this point is that they intend to draft a QB, either this year or next, and having a new QB on a rookie deal will make having that dead space easier.

I just read that his cap hit was lowered from $19 mil to $10 mil this year, which clearly makes this a team friendlier deal this year than I original thought. (I had thought his cap would only be lowered by $1 mil or so, which is kind of stupid thinking on my part.)

The problem is they did it to themselves when they exercised his 5th year option in the first place. Of course they probably executed that before they knew he'd have a wrist injury that may have guaranteed him for the whole $19 mil.

Now the question is which WRs to keep?!?!

Panthers cut S Kurt Coleman and DE Charles Johnson. Two veteran players that I like are gone. Boo.

But, hey, it's a business, and Carolina know has about $26 million in cap space. I'll let Legion tell me if that's good or not and if it's enough to keep OG Andrew Norwell and find a FA receiver who can ... what's that word ... oh, yeah, catch.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...

buhahahaha! I mean its pocket change to Jerrah but still...

Enix wrote:

I'll let Legion tell me if that's good or not and if it's enough to keep OG Andrew Norwell and find a FA receiver who can ... what's that word ... oh, yeah, catch.

The hard part with WRs that can catch isn't affording them, it's finding them. The FA WR list isn't exactly filled with high catch rate %s. (Then again, some of them aren't so bad compared to Panthers standards).

I could see Carolina targeting a mid-tier FA WR. Maybe Jordan Matthews, who seems to be a prime buy-low candidate after a year in WR Hell (Buffalo). Maybe one of the WRs the Jags are likely to let walk now that they have their sights on re-signing Allan Robinson (Allen Hurns or Marqise Lee). I don't think they're going to land someone that's going to get anyone excited, but someone who can line up outside and do better than Funchess or the revolving door of names that lined up there after trading Benjamin.

As for Norwell, I'd get used to the idea of seeing him in a new jersey. He's likely to one-up Kevin Zeitler's deal as the top guard, and by a good margin. It'd likely squeeze Carolina too much to fit such a deal under their cap, although it's possible if they push money out to lower their 2018 hit. Still, think he's going to get his best offer on the open market.

garion333 wrote:

I just read that his cap hit was lowered from $19 mil to $10 mil this year, which clearly makes this a team friendlier deal this year than I original thought. (I had thought his cap would only be lowered by $1 mil or so, which is kind of stupid thinking on my part.)

The flip side of that is that they will eat a chunk of dead money in 2019 if they get rid of him, and they're actually pretty tight cap-wise in 2019 already (though some expected cuts and restructures will help there).

Which is why I think a QB on a rookie contract has to be part of their plan. If Bortles plays well enough to keep and the rookie sits, so be it. But if you do move on from Bortles, it's not going to be with a pricey free agent in 2019.

Now the question is which WRs to keep?!?!

They're supposedly trying to re-sign Allen Robinson.

I expect Allen Hurns will be released. Doing so clears $7m this year and $8m next year with zero dead money.

Marqise Lee probably is allowed to walk if Robinson signs. He's probably the backup plan if they can't keep Robinson.

I think it'll be either Robinson or Lee on one side, and then the young guys Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook working in the other two spots.

garion333 wrote:

Or they draft Josh Allen 1.1.

Mayock thinks that's a distinct possibility.

Mayock sees this group of quarterbacks somewhat differently than I do.

Josh McDaniels has decided to skip the Combine.

You know, because that would mean showing his face in Indianapolis.

*Legion* wrote:

As for Norwell, I'd get used to the idea of seeing him in a new jersey. ...

Yep. I think Panther Nation is already trying to figure out which OL on the roster can play guard.

And in addition to WRs, a RB to replace Stewart and a safety or two now that Kurt Coleman is out, Carolina needs to figure out how to replace the Good Kalil at center. Should be a wacky offseason in Charlotte.

Meanwhile, let's play word association: The Panthers are to running backs (once upon a time, anyway) as blank is to quarterbacks. Answer below.

Spoiler:

The correct answer is ... Vikings! They have Bridgewater, Keenum and Bradford on the roster, but now it looks like they'll be a late entry in the Kirk Cousins "sweepstakes."

Spoiler:

I put "sweepstakes" in quotes because Cousins is a booby prize.

I sure hope the Browns take Saquon with the #1 pick.. I can't imagine the damage he does with the Giants for the next 5 years.

Giants need a QB too bad to take a RB with 2nd overall. They also need a lot more OL and help, well, everywhere except WR.

I expect them to move down or take a QB.

Enix wrote:

Meanwhile, let's play word association: The Panthers are to running backs (once upon a time, anyway) as blank is to quarterbacks. Answer below.

Browns!

*Legion* wrote:
garion333 wrote:

Or they draft Josh Allen 1.1.

Mayock thinks that's a distinct possibility.

Mayock sees this group of quarterbacks somewhat differently than I do.

1. Josh Rosen (best passer, injury concern)
2. Sam Darnold (Eli 2.0)
3. Lamar Jackson (highest ceiling, ascending)

///

4. Baker Mayfield (Manziel with better arm, insane college output)
5. Josh Allen (size, arm, nada else)

That's my take on the five prospects I've read about/watched.

I know very little, if anything, about Mason Rudolph.

I also don't think I'm a QB guru in any sense.

garion333 wrote:
Enix wrote:

Meanwhile, let's play word association: The Panthers are to running backs (once upon a time, anyway) as blank is to quarterbacks. Answer below.

Browns! ;)

Not true. The Panthers have had running backs I would consider average or better. Name one Browns QB that you could say that about.

garion333 wrote:

1. Josh Rosen (best passer, injury concern)
2. Sam Darnold (Eli 2.0)
3. Lamar Jackson (highest ceiling, ascending)

///

4. Baker Mayfield (Manziel with better arm, insane college output)
5. Josh Allen (size, arm, nada else)

That's my take on the five prospects I've read about/watched.

I know very little, if anything, about Mason Rudolph.

I also don't think I'm a QB guru in any sense.

This is approximately where I'm currently at with the quarterback class.

Josh Rosen is the best prospect in the class. By far. It boggles my mind that there's even a discussion. He is clearly superior of a passer over the rest of the group. NFL caliber throws jump off his tape left and right - many of which didn't make it into the stat sheet because the UCLA receivers promptly put those balls onto the ground. I also believe the questions of his character to be largely without merit.

Sam Darnold is clearly the #2 guy. I don't like Eli as a comparison though because he's far more mobile and improvisational than Eli (famous Eli escapes notwithstanding). Eli also has fairly solid throwing mechanics, and that's where Darnold deviates the most. Darnold has a very pronounced windup, dropping the ball down by his hip:

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/Q4oSiwG.png)IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/1AIE9QH.png)

I've seen him compared to Tony Romo, and that's what teams are hoping for. Romo came into the league with a sidearm delivery that got tightened up over time.

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Sidearm delivery is a bit easier to fix though, I think. I have a fuzzy memory of some other quarterback who dropped the ball down below their hip, I can't quite place it...

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People have also tried to push Brett Favre as a comparison to Darnold, and I'm not buying that. Favre made his freewheeling work because he had a Howitzer for a right arm. Darnold doesn't. He's pretty good in that area, but Favre worked because his was special.

Lamar Jackson is my #3. I think he's a low 1st round prospect. Definitely needs a lot of work in terms of footwork with the quick passing game, but he has good dropback footwork for the intermediate and deep game. He reminds me of Derek Carr coming out of college, albeit with a different defining trait (Jackson doesn't have Carr's arm, Carr doesn't have Jackson's athleticism). But the issue of having a narrow throwing base and sailing passes high is very reminiscent, as is their overall stature as ~214 pound passers with somewhat skinny legs.

Though I bashed Bill Polian for calling Jackson short, there is something to his being "slight". Not exaggeratedly so, but the body comparisons that came to mind for Jackson were Carr and Teddy Bridgewater - one guy with a knee injury that's cost him 2 years, and the other that broke his back last season. Concerns about Jackson holding up while taking a beating are absolutely valid. They're just not reasons to turn him into a damn wide receiver.

Baker Mayfield... sigh. He's one of those guys that could work out, but he's going to be so overdrafted for where he's at. I'll say this though, I think the Manziel comparisons primarily apply off-the-field. On the field, he's a much more controlled and sane passer than Manziel ever was. Mayfield doesn't make a lot of rash, ill-advised throws. He's not bailing out of perfectly fine pockets established by a bunch of 1st round NFL offensive linemen, then throwing up a prayer to double covered Mike Evans. He's not that guy. But what he is is a guy that made a lot of good college football plays that don't translate as well to the NFL.

But let's not beat around the bush. His height is an issue. It shows up on tape as he drifts out of pockets to try and find a lane to see through. It showed up as a pass was batted back into his face in the Senior Bowl. People see the success of Drew Brees and Russell Wilson and don't seem to recognize that both of those guys are absolutely playing around their height limitation. Rather, people assume the limitation doesn't exist.

The plus for Mayfield is that he has the throwing power that Manziel didn't. It's not Russell Wilson's arm power, but it's not deficient. Kind of like how I said the high end for Manziel if everything went right was Jeff Garcia, I think if you go watch Jeff Garcia at his best, you can see a model of how Baker Mayfield could work. The margins for error, though, aren't great.

Josh Allen is Joe Flacco 2.0. He's that kind of insanely inconsistent guy who flashes absurdly good ability, and then has it disappear. You can easily see a future where he puts it together for a short burst and has everyone excited, and then just has it flash here and then, leading to a new round of "is he ELITE?" jokes. GMs and QB coaches are looking at him and just imagining coaching him into becoming the guy he flashes as being 100% of the time. But when you get down to it, he's not a fast processor. He's a throwback to an era that loved big QBs taking deep drops and throwing the ball after 4 seconds on long-breaking routes.

Allen is a guy that you can easily make look like a #1 overall pick if you take his tape and just cut out all the head-shakingly bad parts. Whomever drafts him is taking him not on the player he is on tape, but the fantasy of what they can make him. And to be fair, the chances of making him that guy aren't 0. The physical talent is there. But again, the margins for error aren't good.

So the Chiefs trade of Marcus Peters is looking worse the more we know.

The Chiefs are getting a 2018 4th and a 2019 2nd for Pters and a 2018 6th. Yeah, KC is sending a pick along with Peters. Consider also, Peters cap hit is just $1.7 million. That’s all KC gets in relief, and that’s all he impacts the Rams’ cap.

So, that’s how much of an asshole Peters must be.

For the benefit of the doubt, the Chiefs are facing a huge turnover in leadership. Alex Smith and Derrick Johnson leaving is a huge void. I’m notsure if Eric Berry’s status.

And the Chiefs are rebuilding the secondary, and must really not want Peters screwing that process up. There are also more CBs available in FA, so they still have options to replace him, even if it is costly.

Basically, with a young team in transition, Andy Reid decided that Peters could not be the face of veteran leadership. But man, I thought they would get a lot more. But then, only one other team was interested, with was the 49ers. They couldn’t even get Indy and Cleveland to bite.