NFL 2018 Offseason Thread

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I feel like I just watched a spring practice that was pretending to be a title game. It will remain sweet for Philadelphia fans forever, but, outside of that, I don’t think it’s going to be particularly memorable for anyone else outside of that one insanely great TD pass to Nick Foles.

It occurred to me that four teams have won their first (and only) title since 2002; Tampa (2002), New Orleans (2009), Seattle (2013), and Philadelphia (obviously 2017). It also occurs to me we’ve been in a run of generally very exciting and fun Super Bowls; there have been a few less-than-exciting games, such as Indianapolis/Chicago in the rain or Denver dismantling the Panthers due to a combination of great defense, utter lack of coaching adjustments by the Panthers, and Mike Remmers cosplaying as a turnstile. Outside of those, almost all of them have been good . . . except for three of those four first-time wins. Now, Saints-Colts? That was a decent game. Wasn’t really great, and largely very memorable because of a gutsy onside kick and the whole Katrina Redemption aspect, but it wasn’t actively bad. The others?

2002—Jon Gruden had obviously been the coach of the Raiders the prior year, and had created a set of plays that helped take a career journeyman like Rich Gannon and turn him into the league MVP that year. Unfortunately for the Raiders, Gruden became the coach of the Buccaneers, their opponent the next year. Even more unfortunately, Raiders coach Bill Callahan didn’t bother to change any of the play calls. At all. Which, even all these years later, sounds so stupid it hurts to even type it (it’s in the Holy Trinity of Bad Super Bowl coaching, along with Rivera’s failure to adjust his offensive scheme vs. the Broncos and Mike Martz in that first Patriots win). Add to that the fact the Buccaneers were fielding one of the singly best defenses in NFL history (Football Outsiders has stats back to 1986, and still rank the ’02 Bucs as the best passing defense they’ve ever measured), and this game was ugly, brutal, and hard to watch. Except for me.

2013—One play into the game, Seattle was up 2-0, and it went downhill from there. Seattle didn’t even need an offense; Wilson had barely 200 yards passing, and the leading rusher was Percy Harvin with 45 yards. It was a defensive clinic on how to stop a truly great offense.

2017—Philadelphia and New England combine for 1,151 yards. The game featured one defensive play, which essentially sealed the game. I’m sure there’s extra enjoyment for some people out of this one because the Patriots lost and everybody hates the Patriots, but . . . this game sucked. Eagles fans will remember this one as fondly as I do the 2002 game. Everyone else will hope whoever shows up next year figures out how to tackle or at least in-frame with a receiver when they’re catching the ball. There were 42 first downs from passing alone. UGH.

2002, 2013, and 2017 feel like the kind of games only a mother/fan of the teams in question could love. If the Bills, Browns, Bengals, Titans, Jaguars, Chargers, Panthers, Falcons, Lions, or Cardinals even win a Super Bowl, let’s hope they provide us something a bit more memorable than the other first-time winners.

No, there was not a mistake in that list above; if there’s one thing the Football Gods have been making clear for decades now, it’s that the Minnesota Vikings are never going to win a Super Bowl.

So we’re on to the offseason now; I’m going to let this thread run for a while, and then start a pre-draft thread later when we get a bit closer. Because reasons.

Jimmy G baby

Because you want to stick *Legion*'s mock draft in the first post.

*Legion* wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Hey, remember that "Kirk Cousins is gonna get paid" discussion? Yeah, if Jimmy G can get $19.3 million per career win, Kirk Cousins gonna get PAID.

Some are speculating he'll crack the $30m/year mark. I'm skeptical that will happen, but I think he'll the the Stafford to Garoppolo's Carr. Carr inched over the previous top mark (Luck) and then Stafford pushed the needle by $2m/year. Going $2m/year over Garoppolo would put Cousins at $29.5m/year, setting the table for Aaron Rodgers to break the $30m mark next offseason.

Of course, Cousins being an unrestricted free agent rather than a guy that's franchised or still under contract does change things somewhat. But where I think that effect will be felt is less the annual average, and more in the guarantees. I think that's where teams will be competing with each other when it comes to offers, and that's where he's going to make out like a bandit.

As for Garoppolo, given how much cap space the Niners have, I'm betting there's a lot of front-loading in his deal, similar to the kind of deals Jacksonville has thrown around in their oh-god-it's-finally-working free agency rebuild. The Niners have so much carryover, they have nearly $60m in extra cap space. Obviously they should put as much of Garoppolo's cap hit into 2018 (and 2019, as they can roll space there) as possible. I'd bet money they guarantee part or all of his 2018 and 2019 salaries, and/or set up fat roster bonuses, rather than a heavy prorated signing bonus.

My guess is GQ is getting $60 mil this year, $5 mil the rest of the years. What? It'll happen.

The Super Bowl will be memorable because of all the offense, but no one will remember who was on the Eagles that day, only that Brady lost.

Look back to the Ravens most recent Super Bowl win. I remember two things: (1) SF turning the lights out and almost coming back to win and (2) Joe Flacco sucking up all the Ravens salary cap for the next decade.

garion333 wrote:

The Super Bowl will be memorable because of all the offense, but no one will remember who was on the Eagles that day, only that Brady lost.

Look back to the Ravens most recent Super Bowl win. I remember two things: (1) SF turning the lights out and almost coming back to win and (2) Joe Flacco sucking up all the Ravens salary cap for the next decade.

Crabtree getting held on the last play but it not getting called. That honestly might be it. I don't think I recall a single Ravens offensive play and the lights turning off is the most memorable thing. It was even a close game, just wasn't a good one.

garion333 wrote:

The Super Bowl will be memorable because of all the offense, but no one will remember who was on the Eagles that day, only that Brady lost.

Look back to the Ravens most recent Super Bowl win. I remember two things: (1) SF turning the lights out and almost coming back to win and (2) Joe Flacco sucking up all the Ravens salary cap for the next decade.

I think the overall team will be remembered.. especially since they won with a backup QB that was pretty much out of the league. It will also be remembered since they were home dogs in both their playoff games. Overall that will be remembered over a largely forgettable sloppy game.

Also this is priceless..

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news...

The thing I most remember from the Ravens Super Bowl is Ray Lewis and the deer antlers.

Scratch an options off the Colts head coach list: John DeFilippo is taking the OC job in Minnesota.

This presents an interesting question though. With Minnesota seemingly uncertain about which direction to go at QB, they've now hired an OC who won a Super Bowl (and beat Minnesota along the way) with a QB who is in all likelihood available to acquire.

Would DeFilippo prefer Foles over trying to re-sign one of Minnesota's QBs? It seemed to be taken for granted that the Vikings would keep one of their QBs, but really, they're all unrestricted free agents now, and with DeFilippo there likely won't be any continuity with Pat Shurmur's old system, so...

*Legion* wrote:

Scratch an options off the Colts head coach list: John DeFilippo is taking the OC job in Minnesota.

This presents an interesting question though. With Minnesota seemingly uncertain about which direction to go at QB, they've now hired an OC who won a Super Bowl (and beat Minnesota along the way) with a QB who is in all likelihood available to acquire.

Would DeFilippo prefer Foles over trying to re-sign one of Minnesota's QBs? It seemed to be taken for granted that the Vikings would keep one of their QBs, but really, they're all unrestricted free agents now, and with DeFilippo there likely won't be any continuity with Pat Shurmur's old system, so...

I would find it absolutely hilarious if the Vikings replaced Rams Retread #1 with Rams Retread #2, and then, in the offseason, replaced them both with Rams Retread #3.

Schefter reporting:

‪Jimmy Garoppolo deal:‬

‪Signing bonus: $7 million.‬
‪Guaranteed roster bonus: $28M‬
‪2018 base salary: $6.2M (gtd)‬
‪Workout bonus: $600K‬
‪Per-game roster bonus: $800K‬

‪Year 1 total: $42.6M‬
$74.1M injury guarantee already kicked in.‬

‪2019 bass salary: $17.2M, $7.5M of which is guaranteed at signing.‬
2019: Workout bonus: $600K‬
‪Per-game roster bonus: $800K‬

‪For 2019, will make $18.6M for a 2-year total of $61.2M - $10M more than he would have received if he had been franchised two straight times.‬

‪2020 bass salary: $23.8M, $15.7M of which is guaranteed for injury. ‬
If 49ers wanted, could cut him before April 1, 2020 and he would have made $61.2M and been a free agent.‬
2020 Workout bonus: $600K‬
‪Per-game roster bonus: $800K‬
At end of three seasons, he walks away with $86.4M.‬

‪2021: $24.1M base salary‬
2021 Workout bonus: $600K‬
‪Per-game roster bonus: $800K‬
If he makes it to NFC Championship game or is first- or second-team All Pro, then a $7.5M injury guarantee kicks in.‬

‪2022: $24.2M base salary‬
‪Workout bonus: $600K‬
‪Per-game roster bonus: $800K‬

‪Total is $137.5M.‬

garion333 wrote:

‪Year 1 total: $42.6M‬

Called it! Okay, I said $60 mil, but they tried to hit that!

Cap hit for 2018 is $37 mil. They used most of the rollover cap on Jimmy G's first year.

Dead cap goes from almost $50 mil this year, to $13 in 2019, then $4 mil in 2020. This is a one and a half year deal.

Both side have got to be happy about it. Jimmy getting paid out this year a lot of money and the Niners can run away as early as next year but probably 2020 with little recourse.

This deal is a Jags deal, but even crazier.

garion333 wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

.
As for Garoppolo, given how much cap space the Niners have, I'm betting there's a lot of front-loading in his deal (...) The Niners have so much carryover, they have nearly $60m in extra cap space. Obviously they should put as much of Garoppolo's cap hit into 2018 (and 2019, as they can roll space there) as possible.

My guess is GQ is getting $60 mil this year, $5 mil the rest of the years. What? It'll happen.

You joke, but it happened.

Well, not quite $60m. But the contract has a year 1 cap hit of $37m, shattering the previous record for largest single season cap hit.

He's getting a $28m roster bonus in 2018, and part of his 2019 salary is guaranteed.

*Legion* wrote:

I'd bet money they guarantee part or all of his 2018 and 2019 salaries, and/or set up fat roster bonuses, rather than a heavy prorated signing bonus.

God damn am I good.

Basically this means he gets a ton of guaranteed money in 2018 and 2019. He can be cut loose pretty easily in 2020 unless he triggers and injury guarantee, and he can get cut loose in 2021 or 2022 easily regardless of injury.

If he flops, they're realistically only locked into him for 2018 and 2019.

So 2019 is the year they hope that JG has progressed enough that they can pull an Eagles with some shrewd one year deals since his cap number is only $20M.

Whats crazy is his deal is more than Tom Brady made his first 14 years in NE.

*Legion* wrote:

Well, not quite $60m. But the contract has a year 1 cap hit of $37m, shattering the previous record for largest single season cap hit.

Only $7 million of that is for his skill as a football player; the other $30 million is just for being so DEAD SEXY.

TheGameguru wrote:

So 2019 is the year they hope that JG has progressed enough that they can pull an Eagles with some shrewd one year deals since his cap number is only $20M.

Either that or they have some players in mind that will be due contract extensions then.

Really they've brought down Garoppolo's cap number in every year after 2018. Like, he beat Matt Stafford's annual average, but in year-by-year terms, Stafford is going to count more against the cap every year except 2018. Stafford's cap numbers are $29.5m, $31.5m, and $30.0m in 2019-2021, while Jimmy's are $20.0m, $26.6m, and $26.9m in that span.

It's a good cap management tactic. If anything, I would have pushed for even more of the deal to be in 2018, but then you start to run into real-world issues as opposed to salary cap management issues.

Boy, the Super Bowl Thread is already closed.

Since so many people decided that the Super Bowl thread was the right place for off-season talk even before the game was held, I can add one more SB item here.

Back in 2008, the Phils won the World Series and Chase Utley famously dropped an f-bomb when speaking after the parade.

Earlier today, one of my South Jersey friends sent me this:
IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/Okbuked.jpg)

BTW, for you poor souls who are unfamiliar with Philadelphia culture, he is wearing a costume from the Mummers Parade.

TheGameguru wrote:

I think the overall team will be remembered.. especially since they won with a backup QB that was pretty much out of the league. It will also be remembered since they were home dogs in both their playoff games. Overall that will be remembered over a largely forgettable sloppy game.

Eagles fans will absolutely remember more than just the overall team. Hell, Eagles fans still remember the SB XV team like it was yesterday, even though their performance down in New Orleans left a lot to be desired.

As for neutral fans - people will certainly remember Foles in the same way that I still remember Jim Plunkett.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/vU026kS.png)

The absolute best thing to come from this Super Bowl is going to be an offseason of Eagles fans roasting the sh*t out of the Cowboys.

So much pent up Philly snark, and a few short months to get it all out.

Hrdina wrote:

BTW, for you poor souls who are unfamiliar with Philadelphia culture, he is wearing a costume from the Mummers Parade.

After watching the speech, I was telling a coworker about it and mentioned he was in a Mummers costume. When I saw the blank stare, I started to explain what a Mummer was and stopped after about 4 seconds knowing there was no way I could get it across to someone here in the Midwest. Amen for the Internet.

-BEP

bepnewt wrote:
Hrdina wrote:

BTW, for you poor souls who are unfamiliar with Philadelphia culture, he is wearing a costume from the Mummers Parade.

After watching the speech, I was telling a coworker about it and mentioned he was in a Mummers costume. When I saw the blank stare, I started to explain what a Mummer was and stopped after about 4 seconds knowing there was no way I could get it across to someone here in the Midwest. Amen for the Internet.

I was watching the parade at work, saw Kelce, and said "where the hell did he get a Mummers costume?" My cube-neighbors probably thought I was drunk.

Funny thing is that my South Jersey friend that sent me the picture was in one of the string bands a long time ago (1980s or so), so we would see him marching on NYD.

Garoppolo's high 2018 salary means that the exclusive franchise tag number for the quarterback position jumped up $2.6 million.

From the Twitterverse:

@HankJoness wrote:

Jimmy G has started less than 10 games in the NFL and now has two Super Bowl rings and the biggest contract in NFL history. A true inspiration to those that let their partners do all of the work on group projects

I say it's about time Jimmy G caught a break. Poor shmo's been living under an bad sign his whole life, maybe now he can pull himself up by his bootstraps and cobble together a decent future for himself.

Colts hire Frank Reich as head coach.

That represents quite an offensive brain drain for Philly, losing their OC and rising star QB coach. Granted, it's Pederson's offense and he calls the plays, so I wouldn't worry too much, but he's gonna need to scare up some new proteges.

Bummed about DiFilippo since if this had played out normally there would have been a good chance he would have stuck around as OC. Leave it to the Patriots to figure out ways to screw teams even in the offseason.

Ruben Foster, who dropped on draft boards because of character concerns, was arrested a month ago for marijuana possession, and was just arrested for domestic violence, plus he apparently had an assault rifle laying around.

You know, sometimes "character concern" is just a bullsh*t smokescreen for all sorts of things, and sometimes "character concern" is, well, a character concern.

He's already on the Aldon Smith career path.

PFF put him 59th in their Top 101 list, 6th best among linebackers. Guy was out of his mind good as a rookie and legitimately merited consideration alongside Lattimore for DROY.

Dude needs to make a hard right turn onto the straight-and-narrow in a hurry. And if there's anything to the assault charges (which I assume there is), he should be blasted with a lengthy suspension at minimum. The marijuana was one thing, you live in California now, do it at home instead of Alabama you idiot. Domestic violence cannot be tolerated.

At least, if the Niners get stuck drafting a linebacker (if Chubb and the top DBs are off the board by #9, it was looking like LB was going to be best available at that spot), it will be filling a need.

Any suspension of less than six games will show Goodell as incompetent.

Abu5217 wrote:

Any suspension of less than six games will show Goodell as incompetent.

There is a difference between inconsistent and incompetent. A person earning 20-50 million a year supervising one of the most profitable sporting machines in history while attempting to manage 32 "alpha" owners and personalities not including players and various other industry mechanics is not incompetent. I'm not a fan of some of his decisions, but in the same manner as I dont care for Belichick and Brady I have to give them their professional due.

SpyNavy wrote:

There is a difference between inconsistent and incompetent. A person earning 20-50 million a year supervising one of the most profitable sporting machines in history while attempting to manage 32 "alpha" owners and personalities not including players and various other industry mechanics is not incompetent. I'm not a fan of some of his decisions, but in the same manner as I dont care for Belichick and Brady I have to give them their professional due.

I would (politely, and with bias as a Cowboys fan) disagree. If the penalty for this situation (which resulted in an arrest) is not at least equal to (and, honestly, based on precedence) greater than Elliot's suspension, then the inconsistency is at the level of incompetence. Either that or it shows a personal nature to Goodell's punishment decisions, which would also make him unquestionably wrong for the job.

Haven't we already passed the point where it's clear his punishments are inconsistent and he is unquestionably wrong for the job if fair and just is something we wants in the NFL commish? Because I think we blew past that years ago. It's clear the NFL doesn't care as much about this stuff as we do, so he got his extension and we're stuck with him for a while longer, just like Thursday games.

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