[Discussion] The government shutdown thread

Where we talk about where the Shutdown will lead

Looks like the Republicans (with control over both houses of congress and the white house) have shut down the government because they can't get their crap together.

Yay

I just sent out an email to my team advising best practices as we work daily with the USDA and this is going to seriously affect our export program.

I mean politically I applaud anything that negatively affects the GOP but personally this is going to be a huge pain in the ass and I wish Washington could get their sh*t together.

Vox

A spending bill needs 60 votes in order to advance in the Senate, which means Republicans need Democratic votes to keep the government open. With Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) still out of the Senate for health reasons and an Alabama Senate seat recently flipping from red to blue, Republicans need at least nine Democratic votes to pass the spending bill.

That's not precisely true. A 50-49 vote would have succeeded ... except that 60 votes were needed to overcome a Democratic filibuster. However, the Democrats didn't have to filibuster, just like the Republicans didn't have to filibuster during the Obama administration - but they do it because it gives them political leverage. Blaming this on the Republicans is no different than blaming the Democrats for past Republican filibusters.

(Also, note that I don't particularly care who is to blame - from my perspective, this is a huge win for all concerned. The longer the government stays shut down, the better.)

I blame it on Republicans because of timing. When Schumer and company rolled up to the White House on what, Tuesday I think, they presented a bipartisan proposal, which Trump accepted publicly. Then, when they showed up on Wednesday, Trump had changed his mind, probably due to influence from hardliners in the White House. At that point, there was literally not enough time left to negotiate a different deal.

Is Trump a Republican? Last time I checked. He blew up the deal he had initially agreed to, without Democrats making any changes to it in the intervening hours. It's on his shoulders.

And I would counter that by pointing out that anyone who trusts the word of this President on a deal deserves what they get, and that the President isn't actually required in any capacity to pass a bill in the Senate. Blaming it on Trump would work if he vetoed the bill, but he didn't.

The Senate does't exist in a vacuum. Trump's endorsement carries weight (I feel sick typing that) and does have an impact on what happens in the Senate.

Aetius wrote:

And I would counter that by pointing out that anyone who trusts the word of this President on a deal deserves what they get, and that the President isn't actually required in any capacity to pass a bill in the Senate. Blaming it on Trump would work if he vetoed the bill, but he didn't.

Trump reneged his support the bipartisan budget deal that the Senate had hashed out.

Considering the clock was running it didn't really make any sense for Congress to waste their very limited time on political theater to vote on a bill that the President all but said he would veto if it was put in front of him (doubly so because having the President veto a budget bill Congressional Republicans voted for would make them look bad).

So, yes, Trump didn't technically veto the bill. But that doesn't mean that he's not responsible for the shutdown.

I promise you that he doesn't agree.

SallyNasty wrote:

I promise you that he doesn't agree.

He did though:
IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/qLvrPjV.gif)

Stengah wrote:
SallyNasty wrote:

I promise you that he doesn't agree.

He did though:
IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/qLvrPjV.gif)

Those were all Mondays though. We need some Friday data points

There are no Friday data points since he doesn’t work on Fridays.

OG_slinger wrote:

Considering the clock was running it didn't really make any sense for Congress to waste their very limited time on political theater to vote on a bill that the President all but said he would veto if it was put in front of him (doubly so because having the President veto a budget bill Congressional Republicans voted for would make them look bad).

Which would have been a double win for the Democrats in the blame game. So either a) the Democrats are actually responsible for the shut down, or b) they are so incompetent at politics they missed the obvious play.

Aetius wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:

Considering the clock was running it didn't really make any sense for Congress to waste their very limited time on political theater to vote on a bill that the President all but said he would veto if it was put in front of him (doubly so because having the President veto a budget bill Congressional Republicans voted for would make them look bad).

Which would have been a double win for the Democrats in the blame game. So either a) the Democrats are actually responsible for the shut down, or b) they are so incompetent at politics they missed the obvious play.

You're right. Which is why McConnell had no interest in bringing it up for a vote after Trump said no. Don't forget, it's ultimately McConnell that decides what actually comes to the floor for a vote. Bringing the bill to the floor would have passed, and basically forced the President's hand, and since the President had already said he didn't support it, he would have either had to reverse himself, or veto and be responsible for the shutdown directly. Either would have pissed him off, and I don't think McConnell's ready to create an enemy of Trump and his supporters yet.

At this point, McConnell is pretty much banking on the Dems taking the hit for the shutdown, which is why he's doing things like refusing to allow votes on motions to fund the military during the shutdown. He's not really interested in reaching a compromise, and is working on trying to win the messaging game. By lying and assuming that Fox won't mention that to the supporters. Which they won't.

Aetius, you're an odd one to hold the line on blaming Trump for a breakdown in discussions. I mean, it's pretty obvious what happened. Why is it so important to you that the President not take the blame for this?

He seems like the antithesis of all you stand for...

Aetius wrote:

(Also, note that I don't particularly care who is to blame - from my perspective, this is a huge win for all concerned. The longer the government stays shut down, the better.)

My wife works for the VA Hospital- there’s a lot of uncertainty going around about how the shutdown will affect the hospitals; they’ve got a budgetary buffer that’s useful for instances when politicians pull this bullsh*t, but it’s not endless and if the shutdown goes on too long the money could run out, compromising patient care and employee pay. This reaches further than DC and has effects beyond parks being closed for a while. If this goes on long enough it can start literally endangering lives.
But go on with your outmoded libertarian nonsense.

Aetius wrote:

(Also, note that I don't particularly care who is to blame - from my perspective, this is a huge win for all concerned. The longer the government stays shut down, the better.)

Old friend, that is the dumbest thing I've ever heard you say. A shutdown disrupts our economy and negatively impacts GDP. If you think it saves any money, you're also wrong because most of the employees get back pay when it gets resolved. What we do get is everyday civil servants having to figure out how to get by without any income coming in in the meantime. It's a complete sh*t show and it was entirely avoidable.

ruhk wrote:

But go on with your outmoded libertarian nonsense.

Privilege has its, uh, privileges.

ruhk wrote:
Aetius wrote:

(Also, note that I don't particularly care who is to blame - from my perspective, this is a huge win for all concerned. The longer the government stays shut down, the better.)

My wife works for the VA Hospital- there’s a lot of uncertainty going around about how the shutdown will affect the hospitals; they’ve got a budgetary buffer that’s useful for instances when politicians pull this bullsh*t, but it’s not endless and if the shutdown goes on too long the money could run out, compromising patient care and employee pay. This reaches further than DC and has effects beyond parks being closed for a while. If this goes on long enough it can start literally endangering lives.
But go on with your outmoded libertarian nonsense.

That's just a necessary market correction. Once all the sick people are dead the hospitals will be doing great.

I'm a military member serving overseas, with a wife going through the visa process and myself waiting for funding for my orders so I can start the complicated process of moving back to CONUS. I can't say that I'm delighted with a shut-down, especially in light of the fact that funding weirdness over the last decade has played merry hell with planning and getting things done for the military and it's members. Scrambling to meet basic requirements in a barely-funded environment is already what we're used to. There's no pot of money sitting around while we wait things out.

On a personal level, my finances are such that I could probably go a year or two without pay and still meet my bills. My junior sailors, on the other hand, are often living paycheck to paycheck, especially those sending money home to support their parents and other family members. I'm really worried about what's going to happen to those guys.

Vote to re-open government set for 1am Monday. That tells me they have an outline and want a day or so to fill it in and line up votes.

Aetius wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:

Considering the clock was running it didn't really make any sense for Congress to waste their very limited time on political theater to vote on a bill that the President all but said he would veto if it was put in front of him (doubly so because having the President veto a budget bill Congressional Republicans voted for would make them look bad).

Which would have been a double win for the Democrats in the blame game. So either a) the Democrats are actually responsible for the shut down, or b) they are so incompetent at politics they missed the obvious play.

Except that the bipartisan bill which they had worked out an initial compromise on was not the bill that the Democrats filibustered in the Senate. That bill was never even brought up for a vote, because the Republicans have the majority and therefore McConnell is the one who decides what gets voted on, and he isn't stupid - he knows voting on that bill is going to reflect badly upon him one way or the other.

The bill that the Democrats filibustered was the bill that was passed by the House to give another three week extension to the budget, where the Democrats have been saying that three weeks is too long a period of time and Congress needs to deal with the problem now and not keep kicking the can down the road. McConnell knew that the Democrats wouldn't vote for this bill and that it had zero chance of passing, but he brought it up for a vote anyway because it let him say "Look, we tried, but they're being obstructionist and so this is all their fault". In other words, business as usual in Washington.

Fwiw, I think McConnell is winning the message war because all I'm hearing from family is how they're shutting things down for Dreamers.

Keep in mind these are people who prefer Trump to Obama but don't watch Fox News. They do exist! Lol

Anyway, the view on the whole shutdown is probably gonna be whichever side you support is in the good, the other in the bad.

McConnell is simply playing to his strengths.

And now I'm hearing my take is wrong and both sides have dug in deep. Dammit.

Cato Institute author on why Libertarians should not cheer the government shutdown.

garion333 wrote:

Anyway, the view on the whole shutdown is probably gonna be whichever side you support is in the good, the other in the bad.

Correct. If you live in reality, it is the Republicans' fault for not accepting reasonable bipartisan compromises and continuing to pay for programs in already signed law.

If you don't, it is the Democrats' fault for not accepting that "elections have consequences" and not just voting along with whatever the Republicans want. Because that's how it's supposed to work. Rs hold the majority, therefore they should rule the country like petty tyrants, ignoring the wishes of their actual constituents.

You know, like they did when they were in the minority.

Chaz wrote:

You know, like they did when they were in the minority.

Maybe they think that the rule is "whomever loses the popular election gets to make the rules"?

Yonder wrote:
Chaz wrote:

You know, like they did when they were in the minority.

Maybe they think that the rule is "whomever loses the popular election gets to make the rules"?

No, I'm pretty sure it's "we'll do whatever the hell it takes to make sure we get our way, whether we're in the minority or the majority, but we'll still figure out a way to blame our failures on the Dems."

Chaz wrote:
Yonder wrote:
Chaz wrote:

You know, like they did when they were in the minority.

Maybe they think that the rule is "whomever loses the popular election gets to make the rules"?

No, I'm pretty sure it's "we'll do whatever the hell it takes to make sure we get our way, whether we're in the minority or the majority, but we'll still figure out a way to blame our failures on the Dems."

Modern American politics are stupid.

What is stupid is millions of people fall for it.