NFL 2017 Week 17 Thread

Verified tweeters are saying that the deal for Gruden to the Raiders is almost signed and there's a wild report that his QB coach could be...Rich Gannon.

Have to say that I'm interested to see what Gruden + Gannon can do with Derek Carr. Because Todd Downing failed to run an offense that built on what Carr had done the two seasons prior.

Jayhawker wrote:

Question: What exactly is Strength of Victory

Quality of wins. Beating a 10 win team > beating a 4 win team.

It's the same thing as strength of schedule, except only counting the winning % of the teams you beat.

and when did it become a part of the tie-breaker system?

As long as I can remember.

Also, how valuable is it when the three highest SoV's are Carolina, Kansas City, and Atlanta?

Strength of victory is highly schedule dependent, which is why it's halfway down the list of tiebreakers.

Rat Boy wrote:

Baltimore. :lol:

The only good part of the Bronco's game today was after the loss, they cut to the Ravens/Bengals final minutes to show Cincinnati throw a 50 yard dagger into the heart of Baltimore.

Buffalo Bills make the playoffs for the first time since 1999, breaking the NFL's longest postseason drought. The new longest postseason drought in the NFL is... well, you know who. I don't even have to say it.

Tyrod Taylor has earned the crown as the new NFL dink and dunk king, making the playoffs without even cracking 3000 yards passing.

Del Rio was fired with 3 years left on his deal, years Mark Davis is going to have to pay out. You bet your ass Gruden is imminent.

Here where we're at so far other than Oakland:

Pagano out in Indy
John Fox out in Chicago
Caldwell out in Detroit

garion333 wrote:

Here where we're at so far other than Oakland:

Pagano out in Indy
John Fox out in Chicago
Caldwell out in Detroit

Just wonder how long it will take for Jim Caldwell to realize he's been fired.

Looks like Arians will “retire” rather than be fired. Marin Lewis still coach as of now for Cincy.

And Vance Joseph keeping his job in Denver, as he should. Dude deserves more than one year, especially since it isn't his fault their best QB spent the year on IR.

I will never not Like a $wag Kelly post.

No team in NFL history has started the season 0-9 and finished higher than 3-13.

The 2017 49ers started the season 0-9 and finished it 6-10. #JimmyDick

The whole Jimmy G thing is nuts to me. Is he as good as he seems will be this off-season's focus like "is Goff a bust?" was last offseason.

I expect his floor is a quality second tier NFL starter. He's too sound in many phases to end up being much worse than that. I don't think there's any question San Francisco has their long term starter.

The question is, does he have what it takes to be a top tier starter? His deep ball isn't there yet. But even though he's been in the league for years, he has half the NFL game experience of DeShone Kizer. He still has a lot to gain from just getting NFL game reps. And also his first offseason of starter reps in camp and OTAs.

Wonder if this will start more teams letting rookies sit like they used to. Kizer sure as sh*t needed it. The Chiefs did right by Mahomes.

garion333 wrote:

Wonder if this will start more teams letting rookies sit like they used to. Kizer sure as sh*t needed it. The Chiefs did right by Mahomes.

This is a good question, and I think with the decline of "NFL-style" offenses in the college ranks (even if "NFL-style" has inched closer to college ball), the practice should be much more common than it is.

*Legion* wrote:
garion333 wrote:

Wonder if this will start more teams letting rookies sit like they used to. Kizer sure as sh*t needed it. The Chiefs did right by Mahomes.

This is a good question, and I think with the decline of "NFL-style" offenses in the college ranks (even if "NFL-style" has inched closer to college ball), the practice should be much more common than it is.

Especially since OL are no longer plug and play.

Seeing as peak passing happened a couple years ago now and we're in the land of RBs being useful again teams can afford to sit rookies behind, say, Josh McCown.

Yet another feather in the unemployed Kaepernick is BS hat.

Arians retiring...

Wilson 29
Goff 23
Jimmy 26
Not to mention all the other players on those teams.

Current QBs on Cards roster: Palmer Gabbert Stanton

Is the Cards job one of the least attractive in all the NFL now? Well unless you get to blow up the roster and bide your time rebuilding?

Most attractive Oakland? if you ignore the move/ownership/Gruden nonsense. Roster wise if the Raiders won the afc West next year I wouldn't be shocked. But they won't some how.

My ranking of the openings:

1. Oakland. Carr locked up under a long term deal. Cap space limited but a few big contracts that can be cut loose with $0 dead money. In fact I can't remember the last time I looked at a team on OverTheCap that had that much of the top of their salary list with $0 dead money if cut. AFC West up for grabs. Downside here: your name better be Jon Gruden.

2. Indianapolis. I expect Andrew Luck to bounce back. I know he will work his ass off to make it happen. Indy trails only the 49ers and Browns in 2018 cap space. Ownership is patient and gives their coach more than enough rope to hang himself. I have faith in Chris Ballard to continue to fix the woes of the Grigson Era. AFC South could get scary with Deshaun Watson in Houston, and if the Jags go get a veteran QB to pair with that young defense. (Titans making the playoffs seems to have spared rest of the division of worry of that team getting someone who can actually develop Mariota, though.)

3. Detroit. Stafford is locked up. A lot of offensive pieces in place. 10th in cap space, plenty for defensive rebuilding. Concern: will JBC still be around? Hard division to make waves in when Aaron Rodgers is around, and Minnesota one of the best coached teams with the Zimmer/Shurmur pairing.

4. NY Giants. Time to draft a QB, and sit him behind Eli. Ownership not reactionary, though bungled the Eli benching. Gettlemen a good get. Best of the openings without a young franchise QB. Below average cap space that will need to eat some dead money to open up. OBJ contract headache looming.

5. Chicago. The hiring will be all about Trubisky, who wasn't terrible but generated very little offense (near league bottom in completion % and yards per game). They're gonna expect a Goff-like year 2 turnaround. I don't think he's that guy. I didn't want the Niners to draft him even though they needed a QB. Lack of weapons not helping here. Decent cap space. Same divisional concerns as Detroit except with Detroit themselves adding to it.

6. Arizona. I'd move them up if they were in a better position to draft a QB, because drafting a guy and squeezing one more year out of Palmer would be a decent 2018 plan. At pick #15 though, I fear they'll be looking at a draft board with 4 QBs already taken. They don't have ammo to move up, and are already missing their 4th round pick this year. On the plus side, I like Michael Bidwill as an owner, bringing respectability to ownership after too many badly run years from elder Bidwills. Coach needs to be a guy that embraces the family atmosphere the way Arians did, and if he does he'll get plenty of rope from ownership. Steve Keim is good in my book too. But cap space is not good here - similar to the Raiders except with very few $0 dead contracts to cut loose. And yeah, a division with 3 under-30 QBs, one who is clearly a long-term star and two more whose arrows are pointing in that direction.

Speaking of Jacksonville and QBs, assuming Bortles Bortles at some point in the playoffs and doesn't Flacco, there's an intriguing list of veteran QBs to choose from.

Kirk Cousins, Teddy Bridgewater, and Sam Bradford are all FAs. (I'm expecting Case Keenum to get extended.) Alex Smith is likely to be available too, with one year left that the Chiefs can eat for only $3mil and change of dead money, either by cutting or more likely the leftover bonus money after a trade. Tyrod Taylor likely also available, and playing on a run-and-defense team would be a good fit for him.

Ted Thompson is reportedly "transitioning to a new role" within the Packers organization, and the search is on for a new GM.

Of course the odds are that the search doesn't go far beyond Eliot Wolf.

Still, a bit of a shocker.

Enix wrote:

Any Giants fans in the house? I think you'll like Dave Gettleman as your GM. He's ruthless, which is how the Giants lost their VP for player evaluation and their starting right tackle within two days of Gettleman starting work. If the Giants are looking to move on from Eli, he's the man to do it.

I'll stick my head above the parapet, and out myself as a Giants fan (so much so, in fact, that I've been unable to watch them past Game 5 this season).

I don't doubt that he's ruthless. But smart firing is only one leg of the stool; you also need to hire and to draft smart.

My main concern, though, is his age. He's 67. The Giants have been declining steadily for last 6 years and will not be fixed in one or two. In my view, the cleaning house should have started immediately after Coughlin's departure (which itself should have happened a season earlier).

Last year's 11-5 regular season allowed everyone to pretend that the fundamental weaknesses in the team weren't that bad. Twelve months later, in addition to those basic deficiencies (O-Line, QB, RB), we now have huge uncertainty that a promising receiving corps will return to it's 2016 form.

EDIT for clarity on the receiving corps: Sterling Shepherd had 65 catches in his first season, but is now sidelined with concussion. Given the fate of Michael Oher, who know where that might go. ODB should return, but whether he'll be the same ODB physically is still uncertain. And even if he his physically undiminished, his frequent displays of petulance may mean that he doesn't get the big contract offer in 2019(?)

*Legion* wrote:

My ranking of the openings:

1. Oakland. Carr locked up under a long term deal. Cap space limited but a few big contracts that can be cut loose with $0 dead money. In fact I can't remember the last time I looked at a team on OverTheCap that had that much of the top of their salary list with $0 dead money if cut. AFC West up for grabs. Downside here: your name better be Jon Gruden.

2. Indianapolis. I expect Andrew Luck to bounce back. I know he will work his ass off to make it happen. Indy trails only the 49ers and Browns in 2018 cap space. Ownership is patient and gives their coach more than enough rope to hang himself. I have faith in Chris Ballard to continue to fix the woes of the Grigson Era. AFC South could get scary with Deshaun Watson in Houston, and if the Jags go get a veteran QB to pair with that young defense. (Titans making the playoffs seems to have spared rest of the division of worry of that team getting someone who can actually develop Mariota, though.)

3. Detroit. Stafford is locked up. A lot of offensive pieces in place. 10th in cap space, plenty for defensive rebuilding. Concern: will JBC still be around? Hard division to make waves in when Aaron Rodgers is around, and Minnesota one of the best coached teams with the Zimmer/Shurmur pairing.

4. NY Giants. Time to draft a QB, and sit him behind Eli. Ownership not reactionary, though bungled the Eli benching. Gettlemen a good get. Best of the openings without a young franchise QB. Below average cap space that will need to eat some dead money to open up. OBJ contract headache looming.

5. Chicago. The hiring will be all about Trubisky, who wasn't terrible but generated very little offense (near league bottom in completion % and yards per game). They're gonna expect a Goff-like year 2 turnaround. I don't think he's that guy. I didn't want the Niners to draft him even though they needed a QB. Lack of weapons not helping here. Decent cap space. Same divisional concerns as Detroit except with Detroit themselves adding to it.

6. Arizona. I'd move them up if they were in a better position to draft a QB, because drafting a guy and squeezing one more year out of Palmer would be a decent 2018 plan. At pick #15 though, I fear they'll be looking at a draft board with 4 QBs already taken. They don't have ammo to move up, and are already missing their 4th round pick this year. On the plus side, I like Michael Bidwill as an owner, bringing respectability to ownership after too many badly run years from elder Bidwills. Coach needs to be a guy that embraces the family atmosphere the way Arians did, and if he does he'll get plenty of rope from ownership. Steve Keim is good in my book too. But cap space is not good here - similar to the Raiders except with very few $0 dead contracts to cut loose. And yeah, a division with 3 under-30 QBs, one who is clearly a long-term star and two more whose arrows are pointing in that direction.

I'd put Arizona up above the Giants and definitely the Bears.

The Giants have some good (and expensive) pieces, but at least you get a legit GM. I get the feeling the whole team is gonna be gutted, which is good and bad. Dunno, maybe enough pieces here to be a good place to go.

I don't like the Bears' GM Ryan Pace. Ownership just extended him out a couple years. Quick, name anyone from their 2016 Draft other than Jordan Howard. Anyone! How about 2015? Kevin White? Great pick there! Ownership extended the guy cause they want the new coach to think they'll get four years, but they won't. Granted, John Fox is not the coach to train up Trubisky (or run a modern NFL team, sorry) but the new coach coming in knows they're shackled with Trubisky and will live and die by his success in the next two seasons. Then ownership will go and implode the whole thing again.

Chicago has a QB to mold for the future, but as a head coach I'd be more afraid of going there than to Arizona by a long shot. Remember, Pace didn't tell anyone he was selecting Trubisky. They wasted all that money on Glennon and then drafted a QB 1.2. Okay. At least you get a quality GM and a good owner in Arizona. The team is built for a type of offensive football most people don't play, but that D is pretty stacked. D-line needs some fresh faces. Offense needs a new #1 WR and a TE for the future. Not sure which way they go at QB. I think they pick high enough to make a go at someone. Watson went 12th last year

*Legion* wrote:

Ted Thompson is reportedly "transitioning to a new role" within the Packers organization, and the search is on for a new GM.

Of course the odds are that the search doesn't go far beyond Eliot Wolf.

Still, a bit of a shocker.

Holy sh*t, next thing we'll hear that Aaron Rodgers has been traded!

garion333 wrote:

I'd put Arizona up above the Giants and definitely the Bears.

The more I think about it, the more I think I would indeed flip Chicago and Arizona. Trubisky is a draw for some coaches (Chicago isn't the only team that graded him that high) but I just personally don't have faith in him.

Not sure which way they go at QB. I think they pick high enough to make a go at someone. Watson went 12th last year

This is true, but this was also facilitated by Cleveland's steadfast refusal to join in the QB drafting. That ends with the end of the Sashi era.

Browns, Giants, and Jets almost certainly take 3 QBs off the board in the first 6 picks. And Denver at pick #5 easily a threat to push that total to 4.

Arizona could move from #15 to #9 or #10 maybe (whichever pick Oakland gets in the coin flip vs SF), but I don't see them being able to get ahead of the QB feeding frenzy.

Maybe some of these QBs have less than stellar draft season performances and hurt their stock, but I think Arizona will at best be looking at only having the opportunity of drafting the 4th best QB prospect, and possibly more like 5th.

Unless the landscape changes, or they fall in love with a guy everyone else has rated lower, I think it will be tough for them to draft their QB of the future.

Final DVOA rankings are in at Football Outsiders and the ... Saints sit on top because the Rams sat their starters in week 17. Never saw that coming.

Jacksonville did end up with the top defense despite Jimmy G showing them what's up.

Top offense is New England, as expected. New Orleans was right behind them though.

So, you may wonder, where are the 0-16 Cleveland Browns in the lists of all-time worst teams? According to DVOA, they don't even come close. The Cleveland Browns instead make the list of unluckiest teams in DVOA history, not the list of worst teams. With a DVOA of -27.2%, the Browns are the best-rated team to finish in last place since the 1988 Detroit Lions finished 28th in a 28-team league at -26.6%. By comparison, the winless Detroit Lions of 2008 had a last-place DVOA of -48.4%. The Browns lost four games by three points or less, compared to just one for the 2008 Lions. Check the points scored and allowed, and our Pythagaport equation suggests the Browns should have won 3.3 games, not zero. That ties them with the 2001 San Diego Chargers (5-11, projection of 8.3 wins) as the most unlucky team ever to play a 16-game schedule.

Not only is Cleveland the second 0-16, but they're also the unluckiest team ever to play a 16-game schedule.

When it rains, it pours.

San Francisco was 28th in offensive DVOA after week 12. With 5 games, Jimmy G pulled their season rank up to 19th.

There's a report that the Packers board of directors instructed the CEO to oust Ted Thompson, a claim which he has denied, but, y'know, Thompson volunteering to transition to a "senior advisor" role sounds pretty unlikely.