NFL 2017 Week 14 Thread

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Starting with something garion posted in last week’s thread, as it made me think . . .

garion333 wrote:

I just had a thought:

Since Jerome Bettis is in the Hall of Fame won't we also need to put Josh McCown in there?

Even I think that's an unfair comparison, and I think it's clear Jerome Bettis is one of the least-deserving people in the HOF. Bettis was really good for a few seasons, and was an effective, if limited player for the great majority of his career, and only stumbled into Canton because he was a likeable, popular guy who stuck around long enough to slowly wheeze his way up the career rushing totals. Without any exaggeration at all, if Chris Berman didn't like going BOOOMPH and called him "The Bus" repeatedly on highlights, there is absolutely zero chance Jerome Bettis is in the HOF.

Josh McCown has been completely terrible for almost his entire career, and his continued employment is just mind-boggling. He's genuinely good this year, just like he was for half a year in Chicago a few years back. Other than that, he's been invariably awful.

I was thinking, I needed a better comp for Bettis' career from a QB perspective, because McCown doesn't work. Basically, I look at Jerome Bettis as a guy who had a few really great seasons when young, occasionally managed to throw up a Pro Bowl worthy season in the middle of his career, and eventually hung around long enough to move up the career yardage totals board to make things look impressive, even though by any kind of efficiency stat. vs. pure accumulation, he wasn’t notably great in any way. The QB version of Jerome Bettis?

IMAGE(http://u.cubeupload.com/MilkmanDanimal/Bledsoe.jpg)

No, really. Drew Bledsoe is QB Jerome Bettis. When I looked at the stats, it made sense to me, and that was even before I realized (A) they were both drafted in 1993, and (B) Bettis played with Rick Mirer at Notre Dame, and Mirer vs. Bledsoe was the original Ryan Leaf vs. Peyton Manning (with less implosion and/or prescription drug addictions). Even without those links, Bettis and Bledsoe:

  1. Were often considered very good, but rarely great compared to their peers; Bettis had five Pro Bowls and two All-Pros, Bledsoe had four Pro Bowls and zero All-Pros.
  2. Rarely led the league in any significant categories. Bettis never led the league in yards or TDs, Bledsoe led the league in attempts, completions, yards, and yards/game his second year, which would be more impressive if he hadn’t led the league with 27 INTs.
  3. Both stuck around long enough to move up the charts. Drew Bledsoe is 14th in career passing yardage, ahead of Dan Fouts, Joe Montana, and Johnny Unitas. Nobody would vaguely indicate he was great because he stuck around long enough to pass them. After Frank Gore passed him this weekend, Bettis has dropped to 7th in career rushing yardage, but is still ahead of Eric Dickerson, Tony Dorsett, Jim Brown, and Marshall Faulk, because nothing says “all-time great” like “refusing to retire”.
  4. Each had obvious flaws; Bledsoe’s TD/INT ratio is . . . not great, and Bettis was such a detriment in the passing game even Adrian Peterson makes fun of him. Fun fact; Bettis played in 192 regular-season games. He had 200 career receptions.

It’s one of the standard What Ifs of the last 20 years of the NFL; what if Bledsoe doesn’t go down, Tom Brady doesn’t come in, and the Patriots still manage to win that Super Bowl over the heavily-favored Rams. Is that as likely? No; Bledsoe’s tendency to take sacks and throw picks is exactly the kind of QB Belichick would hate, and it probably sinks that team’s chances. That being said, let Bledsoe have one of those “Flacco Postseasons”, and, while you’re at it, make him as telegenic and likeable as Jerome Bettis, plus have Chris Berman come up with some “Drew-be-do-be-doo” nickname he yawps over highlights every time Bledsoe throws a long TD. He’s got the career totals, so, with the ring and the likeability, I can’t see why Drew Bledsoe couldn’t belong in the HOF just as easily as Jerome Bettis in that case.

Spoiler:

Somewhere here there is a lurker Steelers fan who now wants to stab me. Also, while you’re at it, while Jerome Bettis is the starting RB on the “Why the hell are you in the HOF”, Lynn Swann is absolutely one of the starting wideouts.

So, to give Legion a binky, more Frank Gore. The aforementioned Gore aforementionedly moved up to fifth on the all-time yardage list, and, to bash on Fat Art Monk some more, did it so much more impressively. Legion posited that, after LaDanian Tomlinson, Gore is the second-best RB of his generation (which, for convenience sake, let’s call “drafted after 2000”). Legion is, of course, wrong.

Gore is the third-best RB of his generation. And, really, the argument for Tomlinson vs. Adrian Peterson is actually surprisingly difficult, and I figured LdT would run away with this.

Tomlinson was a TD machine and a phenomenal all-around back, having at least 40 catches in every season except for his awful last season in San Diego (when he had 20). Double-digit TDs his first nine season, 1,000+ yards his first eight, and 88.6 yards/game as a Charger (because focusing on the younger years for a QB seems a kinder thing to do, really) is really impressive.

That being said, I have never, ever seen a running back put defenses into a constant state of pants-sh*tting terror like Adrian Peterson did. Peterson’s big negative (other than being subhuman, child-beating garbage) is not fumbling or receiving, it’s durability; Peterson only played in all 16 games four times during his entire career. In three of those seasons, he led the NFL in rushing. In the other one, he led it in TDs. Peterson averaged 95.5 yards/game as a Viking, and even managed to average more than two catches per game as well (nothing compared to LdT, but double Bettis’ number). While Peterson is somewhat known as a fumbler, PFR lists him with 42 fumbles in 12 years; Frank Gore has 45 in 13.

Frank Gore is a great all-around back, and I’m a firm believer in the idea that durability is absolutely one of the critical factors in being a good player, and Frank Gore is somehow still producing at an at least decent level at 34. As an all-around back, he’s at 2.3 catches/game, as opposed to 1.9 for AP and 3.7 for LdT. Given a career, I’d take LdT just due to his flexibility, durability, and overall skillset, but, if you offered me young AP vs. LdT . . . that’s a really tough choice. As good as Frank Gore has been, I can’t imagine anyone choosing him over AP in his prime. AP was just too damn great.

A few brief thoughts:

Rob Gronkowski is a jerk. Marcus Peters is a jerk. Every single goddamn player on the Steelers and Bengals is a jerk.

Ben McAdoo stuck around just long enough to ruin Eli’s starts streak. Between his uninspirational fumbling on the sidelines, and Jerry Reese’s terrible drafting, the Giants currently have two wins, an old QB, a terrible line, and zero cap flexibility.

I would hate Roger Goodell getting a contract extension if it didn’t make Jerry Jones so unhappy. But, it, does, so congrats, Roger.

Nathan Peterman really improved in his second outing as the Bills QB. 6/15 for 50 yards is, comparably speaking, pretty great.

The Browns had an early lead vs. the Chargers. Three games left, guys.

THE GAMES

MAKE YOUR GAME PICKS HERE
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills: One of the things that really sucks about taking over the NFL thread is I make my picks early in the week, and I’m making this assuming Tyrod Taylor is back. Not that Taylor has been good, it’s just that if you gave me the Browns vs. the Nathan Peterman Bills, I’d be taking Cleveland.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matthew Stafford is gimpy, and maybe he doesn’t play. It actually doesn’t matter. Tampa held Brett Hundley to 13/22 for 84 yards, and lost. I did hear the Tampa pass rush has started rushing Matthew Stafford now, and there’s a decent chanCe they might be able to get to him by the middle of the third quarter.

]b\Minnesota Vikings[/b] at Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have a great offense if the Legends of Tomorrow show up and take their team back to 1925, so they can play with a bunch of other teams that don’t have any WRs. I will never understand how this team could take Cam Newton in his prime, and the best WRs he’s ever had are a fat guy they dumped for peanuts to Buffalo, and Ted Ginn, who was born without hands.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams: Consecutive West Coast road games for the Eagles? That’s brutal; teams that have to go across the country have a tough time.

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars: Traveling kitty corner across the country to play a game? That’s brutal; teams that have to go across the country have a tough time. I do suspect Jaguars players will be looking for revenge on the team that gave them Gus Bradley.

Week 13 Results
iaintgotnopants: 4-1
LeapingGnome: 4-1
garion333: 4-1
Infyrnos: 4-1
Rat Boy: 3-2
ballnchained: 3-2
Zaque: 3-2
MilkmanDanimal: 3-2
Torq: 2-3
TheGameGuru: 2-3
Vector: 2-3
PorkSmoothie89: 2-3
EvilDead: 2-3
Jayhawker: 2-3
Abu5217: 2-3
*Legion*: 2-3
oldmanscene24: 2-3
karmajay: 2-3
kaostheory: 2-3
Oddsmakers: 2-3
cube: 1-4

Season to Date
*Legion*: 43-22
Oddsmakers: 41-24
ballnchained: 40-20
PorkSmoothie89: 39-26
MilkmanDanimal: 39-26
oldmanscene24: 38-27
TheGameGuru: 37-28
Infyrnos: 37-28
Rat Boy: 37-28
tboon: 37-23
iaintgotnopants: 36-29
Vector: 36-29
karmajay: 33-32
garion333: 33-22
cube: 32-28
LeapingGnome: 31-34
kaostheory: 31-24
Jayhawker: 31-29
EvilDead: 31-29
Zaque: 29-36
Torq: 29-26
Abu5217: 28-32
UpToIsomorphism: 27-23
sr_malo: 27-28
Kush15: 15-20
Jowner: 5-5
Nomad: 4-1
Minase: 4-1

Oddsmakers doing pretty good this year.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

blah blah Peterson > Gore blah blah

One bit you're leaving out:

Frank Gore: elite pass blocker for his entire career
Adrian Peterson: dog sh*t pass blocker for his entire career

In the modern NFL, backs have to pass protect.

Part of why Frank Gore is 5-3 in the playoffs and Adrian Peterson is 1-4. Gore helped keep some less than elite quarterbacks upright and capable of winning playoff games.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/T6TLydi.png)

This one's just as good: Sean Lee snarking on Barry Church for saying that his new Jaguars defense is more talented than the Dallas defense he left behind.

*Legion* wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

blah blah Peterson > Gore blah blah

One bit you're leaving out:

Frank Gore: elite pass blocker for his entire career
Adrian Peterson: dog sh*t pass blocker for his entire career

In the modern NFL, backs have to pass protect.

Part of why Frank Gore is 5-3 in the playoffs and Adrian Peterson is 1-4. Gore helped keep some less than elite quarterbacks upright and capable of winning playoff games.

Not arguing that, but Adrian Peterson was just SO DAMN GOOD at the thing he was good at that it overwhelms anything else. If somebody not as good as Randy Moss took plays off or not as good as T.O. was a complete jerkface I'd say skip them entirely, but they had a singular talent that overcomes everything else. AP is the singly most terrifying runner I've seen since very young Eric Dickerson.

Pretty sure I put my picks in last week. Probably that garbage Rails code hosed me.

tboon wrote:

Pretty sure I put my picks in last week.

Doesn't look like it. Neither the site nor the email "paper trail" show week 13:

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/IMlNH5d.png)

Well, great, another example of me losing my mind.

Thanks for checking!

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams: Consecutive West Coast road games for the Eagles? That’s brutal; teams that have to go across the country have a tough time.

FYI, the Eagles stayed on the west coast and are practicing in LA this week. I'm not sure if that will help, but they aren't changing time zones or making the long flight this week.

tboon wrote:

Well, great, another example of me losing my mind.

Thanks for checking!

Should we remind you during bottle rockets every week?

Well last minute defensive shifts from the wives of some of the attendees of the annual nfl road trip almost scuppered the whole thing.

Someone found cheap flights for an audible, Jags vs Seahawks. Never thought I'd travel to see the Jags.

Stele wrote:
tboon wrote:

Well, great, another example of me losing my mind.

Thanks for checking!

Should we remind you during bottle rockets every week?

If Bottle Rockets is done right, you won't remember to remind me. And I won't remember if you did or didn't.

*Legion* wrote:

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/T6TLydi.png)

Are we just going to let this reporter's name float there without comment?

Beathard vs goodbread. The matchup we all want.

I wouldn't say I'd active chase good bread, but I'd definitely drive a bit out of my way coming home from work for a quality bakery.

Wait,, what?

Browns just fired their GM.

Vector wrote:

Browns just fired their GM.

Edit: Hue Jackson confirmed to come back in 2018. (I've heard that before, but sounds like ownership sided with Hue.)

IMAGE(https://i0.wp.com/www.thejaygravesreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Grigson.jpg?resize=678%2C381)

"Yo, T!"

"It's me, G-Pack".

"... Ry-dog."

"... Ryan Grigson."

"So yeah look, it's happening."

"Yeah, they fired Sashi."

"No, they haven't called me yet."

"Look I've been laying the groundwork for this for weeks."

"Yeah."

"No."

"Yeah."

"I got into Dee's ear right before the McCarron sh*t, and then that happened..."

"Yeah."

"So look, I know they're gonna call soon."

"Someone has to run this sh*t-show."

"There's no one else here that knows how."

"No man, are you kidding? Who else are they gonna get?"

"No one else is willing to come here."

"And they want to keep Hue. What GM candidate is going to both come to Cleveland *and* not be able to pick the coach?"

"I'm just playing it cool. It's coming."

"So yeah man, next season, I'm getting the boys back together."

"You been staying in shape?"

"It's gonna happen. We're gonna do it right this time."

EIGHT MONTHS LATER

IMAGE(http://media.cleveland.com/browns_impact/photo/trich-reax-td-chiefs-jgjpg-31a94cfdd0e47078.jpg)

Oh gawd, I forgot about that...

IMAGE(http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/masonry/001/070/431/56d.gif)

I feel like it's not complete coincidence that this happened days after Jimmy Garoppolo's first start (and win for the previously 1-win 49ers).

The big blowup between the FO and ownership and coaching over the AJ McCarron trade failure happened after coaching blew up at the FO over their failure to make a serious push for Garoppolo, and the Niners putting the lie to the notion that Garoppolo was beyond attainment.

I'm certain the Haslam's saw Jimmy G take the team closest to the Browns in W-L record and move them slightly further away (even if it was against a Bears team only slightly higher up the list than the two of them), and it fed into whatever other sources of discontentment that were building to get them to this decision.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

]b\Minnesota Vikings[/b] at Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have a great offense if the Legends of Tomorrow show up and take their team back to 1925, so they can play with a bunch of other teams that don’t have any WRs. I will never understand how this team could take Cam Newton in his prime, and the best WRs he’s ever had are a fat guy they dumped for peanuts to Buffalo, and Ted Ginn, who was born without hands.

Nice formatting there, MMD. That's like the wide left FG the Vikings will attempt and miss Sunday and lose.

Anyhoo, Ted Ginn does indeed have hands. He used all of them to catch every damn thing thrown his way Sunday. Why Carolina let him walk, I have no idea. Maybe Benjamin was threatening to eat him and they let him up for his own protection?

On a related note, here's a look at the playoff kryptonite for each of the 14 teams in the league -- run defense for the Falcons, tackling for the Chargers.

Kryptonite for the Jags is exactly what you'd expect ...

Spoiler:

Throwing downfield!

I'm not sure why it didn't just say Blake Bortles ...

stupid double wide right post, which means Carolina will lose

EDITED TO ADD A LINK FOR LEGION

Two posts and yet no link in either of them.

*Legion* wrote:

Two posts and yet no link in either of them.

My posting just now:

IMAGE(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9614011/slack_imgs.gif)

Enix wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Two posts and yet no link in either of them.

My posting just now:

IMAGE(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9614011/slack_imgs.gif)

Did you just post them in the wrong forum here? I hear that's what all the cool kids have been doing.

An illegal procedure penalty that happens before the snap (eg. false start) gives the offense the option to use a timeout to prevent a clock runoff.

An illegal procedure penalty that is not assessed until the snap (eg. illegal formation) lets the dead play continue and burn clock, even though it won't count, and can end the half/game even if the offense has a timeout left.

I don't really like that.

That's what just happened to New Before halftime. Field goal attempt with 0:04 left, lineman lines up off the LOS, illegal formation, and the kick burns those 4 seconds and ends the half. NO had a timeout still in their pocket.

I don’t like it either. Mostly because it cost me points in my playoff game against you.

I'll give you that field goal if I can swap out Kamara.

Browns hired John Dorsey as GM, not Ryan Grigson. I am disappoint.

That said, some are spinning this as the Browns going back to traditional scouting, but I think that's definitely not what's happening. They're no longer going full Moneyball but they're not jumping right back into traditional scouting. A hybrid approach makes more sense, and puts them in line with the rest of the league, but more importantly they have someone in charge as a proper GM (not a Vice President of BS) who has real world experience. Of course, if the Browns fire their analytics staff then clearly they're making the move away, but they didn't do that and I doubt they will.

This also gives the Browns what they've been coveting: a Packers hire. He may not be a Ted Thompson protege but he still used to work for the Pack!

I'm not sure Dorsey is a good fit or even a good GM, but he's likely the best candidate out there since the Packers and Ravens locked up their higher end staff last season. (There may be other good candidates out there I'm not aware of, natch.) I sure hope they don't give him final say on the cap because he gave out some highly questionable contracts before leaving KC.

Perhaps most importantly we now know Kevin Hogan will be the Browns franchise QB since Dorsey is the one who drafted him.

Dorsey is a much better GM than I thought the Browns had a prayer of attracting to their franchise. In fact, the timing of the firing makes it clear that the catalyst for the move was Dorsey saying "yes" in the backchannel dealings, rather than anything that's happened on or off the field. The decision was likely made right after the McCarron flub, and they've only waited until they could get the next guy lined up.

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