NFL 2017 Week 6 Thread

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Random Thoughts:

The Bucs signed their former kicker Patrick Murray to be their new kicker. Murray was on the Bucs in the past, but was cut to make room for Roberto Aguayo. I can see no way for this to go wrong. Also, football is a stupid sport and nobody should watch it. No, I’m not bitter. At all.

The Bucs have had four kickers in the last three years. Ignoring Connor Barth in 2015 (who didn’t suck), those kickers are Kyle Brindza, Roberto Aguayo, and Nick Folk. Combined, those three are 62.9 % on FG attempts, and 82.3% on XP attempts. The NFL average in 2016 was 84.2% of FG attempts, and 93.6% on XP attempts. I can’t wait for Patrick Murray to shank an XP attempt hard enough that it shoots over to the sideline, caroms off Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Lavonte David, and Gerald McCoy, giving each of them career-ending eye injuries.

Jacksonville has a winning record. Jacksonville has a winning record. Jacksonville has . . . like, if I write that enough times, it begins to make sense, right? Blake Bortles is still Blake Bortles, but the proverbially old-school combination of good defense and good RB is paying off in inexplicable ways. I mean, at some point Blake Bortles will Bortle the hell out of things and screw everything up, but, as for now, they’re really doing a good job of pretending there are only 10 men on offense.

The Jets have a winning record. The Jets have a winning record. The Jets have . . .

Injuries suck. J.J. Watt and ODB out for the year, along with most of the rest of the Giants’ WR corps.

Speaking of the Giants . . . Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie apparently hates Ben McAdoo enough to walk out of the building and get suspended. Another reason it really sucks to have ODB and Brandon Marshall out for the year is it would be fun to watch them try to deal with the utter insanity this season is going to be for the Giants.

San Francisco has lost four consecutive games by three points or less. Addition of a real QB would make them a viable team. Or Kirk Cousins, even.

Adrian Peterson was traded to the Cardinals four games into his to be very generous “Saints career” with 87 yards on 27 carries, so at least his utterly forgettable season is mathematically easy to compute. Right after trading for him, the Cardinals cut Chris Johnson, meaning they replaced a washed-up 2,000 yard rusher with another washed-up 2,000 yard rusher, and, well, when Peterson invariably falters, O.J. Simpson did just get out of jail, so . . .

Weekly game picks

Standard reminder; your two lowest weeks are dropped at the end of the year. MAKE YOUR GAME PICKS HERE.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints: The Lions have juuuust about beaten the Falcons and juuuust about beaten the Panthers. So, this time, they can win easily. Right?

New England Patriots at New York Jets: This being an actual game of interest is maybe the least-likely thing of the entire season. I mean, I can on some level accept the Jaguars found a way to win by minimizing Bortles or a new offensive-minded coach plus some weapons and offensive line turned Jared Goff into a viable QB, but the Patriots being lousy on both offense and defense and the Jets actually looking vaguely competent . . . what the hell? Granted, they haven’t played the hardest schedule, but Josh McCown appears to be having a “not sucking in Chicago” type of half-season, the nobodies on their offense are playing well, and their rookie safeties are not playing like rookies. I mean, I still can’t pick the Jets, but you at least have to think about it.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals: Football is a stupid sport. While Tampa has to travel, it does have the advantage of being not a night game, so maybe Winston doesn’t freak out and suck? Carson Palmer has fallen off a cliff intensely enough that even Ben Roethlisberger is giving him the stinkeye, and their solution for fixing their offensive woes was trading for a running back who hasn’t been able to really hit anything effectively bigger than a four-year-old for years now.

Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars: Good GOD I’m picking the Jaguars. It’s a really good matchup; the Jaguars have excelled at running the ball and playing defense, the Rams have a great defensive line and have been shockingly explosive. I probably would have bet body parts these teams would have maybe a combined two wins at this point, and they’re both 3-2.

Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders: It’s the official “Screw Our California Fanbases” bowl.

Game Picks:

Week 5 Results
oldmanscene24: 4-1
PorkSmoothie89: 4-1
kaostheory: 3-2
EvilDead: 3-2
UpToIsomorphism: 3-2
Jayhawker: 3-2
*Legion*: 3-2
ballnchained: 3-2
Kush15: 3-2
Oddsmakers: 3-2
Torq: 2-3
TheGameGuru: 2-3
Rat Boy: 2-3
LeapingGnome: 2-3
garion333: 2-3
tboon: 2-3
Zaque: 2-3
Infyrnos: 2-3
iaintgotnopants: 2-3
karmajay: 2-3
Abu5217: 1-4
sr_malo: 1-4
cube: 1-4
Vector: 1-4

Season to Date
ballnchained: 18-7
oldmanscene24: 18-7
*Legion*: 17-8
UpToIsomorphism: 17-8
TheGameGuru: 16-9
PorkSmoothie89: 15-10
Infyrnos: 14-11
MilkmanDanimal: 14-11
Rat Boy: 14-11
Jayhawker: 13-12
garion333: 13-7
karmajay: 13-12
Oddsmakers: 13-12
Vector: 12-13
sr_malo: 12-13
Zaque: 11-14
Abu5217: 11-14
tboon: 11-14
Torq: 11-14
LeapingGnome: 11-14
kaostheory: 10-10
cube: 10-15
EvilDead: 10-10
iaintgotnopants: 9-16
Kush15: 8-12
Minase: 4-1
Nomad: 4-1
Jowner: 4-1

Wednesday!

Jaguars Super Bowl odds

Football Outsiders DVOA: 4th highest
IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLy2y90UEAEymdP.jpg)

ESPN Power Index: 8th highest
IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/qoYgmqU.png)

538: 11th highest (tie)
IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/PfG7A0X.png)

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

ODB out for the year

It's OBJ. Ol' Dirty Bastard is out for, well, he won't be back in 2018.

Relevant; I forgot to include this clip that garion may or may not have sent me.

An error occurred. An error. It occurred.

He probably meant this video.

Holy sh*t that goes on like that for five minutes.

Uh oh.

Between that video link and "ODB" I am to NFL posts what Bucs kickers are to existing on this planet.

You are all wrong, this is the video that was supposed to be posted:

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/LSv4hGq.gif)

STEAL THE SHOW

So, DeShone Kizer was benched during last week's game, and he's now benched going forward. The team is instead starting Kevin Hogan.

Cody Kessler, the guy who started 8 games for them as a rookie last year and posted a 92 passer rating while doing it, is also still on the roster. The team's QB depth chart is somewhat murky.

DeShone Kizer is handling the demotion well. He went to Twitter and "liked" a tweet that called the Browns the worst organization in the league.

Kizer has looked terrible since Corey Coleman got hurt. He needs someone to bail him out with inaccuracy and they don't currently have someone to do that.

The turnovers in the red zone are terrible. So, I'm with them on benching him. Hogan came into the game and was electric compared to Kizer.

The whole Cody Kessler thing is definitely weird. I believe he missed out on part of the preseason due to injury, but I have no idea why he has completely become the odd man out.

*Legion* wrote:

DeShone Kizer is handling the demotion well. He went to Twitter and "liked" a tweet that called the Browns the worst organization in the league.

One really has to hope he liked that for the support the tweet gave and not the Browns org part cause that looks just a rad bit bad. Just a lil bit.

With the day I'm having I'm beginning to wonder if it's an omen for tonight's Eagles v Panthers game.

This is a very educational thread, though. I didn't realize the Jacksonville Jaguars doing well was an anomaly.

Phishposer wrote:

Holy sh*t that goes on like that for five minutes.

PACKERS, WHAT'CHA GONNA DO?

Nevermind, don't answer that.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/gOhPJuQ.png)

This continues to go well.

ccesarano wrote:

With the day I'm having I'm beginning to wonder if it's an omen for tonight's Eagles v Panthers game.

This is a very educational thread, though. I didn't realize the Jacksonville Jaguars doing well was an anomaly.

Here's a link to Jacksonville's franchise history on Pro Football Reference. They've had five wins or less since 2010, and, in those six years combined, they have managed a total of 22 wins. They haven't won their division since 1999. They've drafted in the top five for six consecutive years. Prior to apparently really hitting on Fournette and Jalen Ramsey, their first-round picks have been:

Dante Fowler
Blake Bortles
Luke Joeckel
Justin Blackmon
Blaine Gabbert
Tyson Alualu

I'll stop there, as Aluala has at least been a decent player.

Jacksonville doing well is not the anomaly; Jacksonville not being mind-bogglingly awful is the anomaly.

Dante Fowler has 4 sacks in 5 games, tied for 5th in the NFL.

He's tied for 12th in PFF's edge rusher "pass rush efficiency" metric (basically sacks+hits+hurries divided by pass rush snaps).

He may belong next to Fournette and Ramsey, if he maintains production anything like what he's done so far in 2017.

All it took for Dante Fowler to ascend was to be surrounded by amazing players.

I will admit my brain contravened Dante Fowler and Dion Jordan as highly-drafted "D" pass rushers from disappointing Florida franchises.

Spoiler:

As opposed to all those non-disappointing Florida franchises out there.

garion333 wrote:

All it took for Dante Fowler to ascend was to be surrounded by amazing players.

Hey he's only actually played one season before this year. What he needed was his knee to not explode and to actually get on the field and play.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

I will admit my brain contravened Dante Fowler and Dion Jordan as highly-drafted "D" pass rushers from disappointing Florida franchises.

Ugh, don't remind me of Dion Jordan. I was on that train. Still not sure how that much athletic ability got onto an NFL field and then couldn't even be a "just run at the QB" 3rd down pass rusher.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Dante Fowler
Blake Bortles
Luke Joeckel
Justin Blackmon
Blaine Gabbert
Tyson Alualu

As a casual gamer football fan, none of these names ring a bell for me. However, some names you mention do! So I assume I'll learn as time progresses.

But I do know Blake Bortles sounds like a cartoon character and I like that.

*Legion* wrote:
garion333 wrote:

All it took for Dante Fowler to ascend was to be surrounded by amazing players.

Hey he's only actually played one season before this year. What he needed was his knee to not explode and to actually get on the field and play.

Doesn't change the fact he's surrounded by world class talent and is not the (blocking) focus of offenses.

That other guy, the 3rd round pick from last year, is still playing better than him, I believe.

ccesarano wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Dante Fowler
Blake Bortles
Luke Joeckel
Justin Blackmon
Blaine Gabbert
Tyson Alualu

As a casual gamer football fan, none of these names ring a bell for me. However, some names you mention do! So I assume I'll learn as time progresses.

But I do know Blake Bortles sounds like a cartoon character and I like that.

I'll help you out.

Dante Fowler, as Legion pointed out, has bounced back after several serious knee injuries.

Blake Bortles has been ridiculously and comically awful at QB. As of a couple games ago, he finally has more career wins than pick-sixes (interceptions returned for TDs). He's really known for one thing; putting up huge yardage totals once the Jaguars are down by at least 14 points. To your point, Blake Bortles pretty much plays QB like a cartoon character, and, hilariously enough, managed to throw pick-sixes off his receivers' feet in consecutive games last year. Also, he apparently loves himself some cocktails, and the Jaguars are basically winning by running the ball a lot and pretending they don't have a QB.

Luke Joeckel is a hugely disappointing #2 overall left tackle, who failed to protect several terrible QBs and now is playing badly for the Seahawks, who have one of the worst lines in the league.

Justin Blackmon was an immensely talented WR who couldn't stop drinking and was thrown out of the league several years ago. Amazing production in college, but, once he stopped being continually enabled by his school and had to face actual consequences, he disappeared. To be fair, almost this entire draft was a dumpster fire, but Blackmon is a special kind of sadness.

Blaine Gabbert is statistically speaking (according to Football Outsiders) the singly worst QB of the last 25 years. He still has a job as a backup. As opposed to INSERT OTHER PLAYER NAME HERE.

Tyson Alualu has been a reasonably productive defensive tackle, otherwise known as "big guy who sits in the middle of the defensive line and hopefully inspires two separate people to block him", making it easier for his teammates to do exciting things. He's not awful. He's also no longer on the Jaguars.

garion333 wrote:

Doesn't change the fact he's surrounded by world class talent and is not the (blocking) focus of offenses.

IMAGE(https://www.prevention.com/sites/prevention.com/files/styles/listicle_slide_custom_user_phone_1x/public/static/woman-feather-600x450.jpg)

Say that again, slowly this time...

That other guy, the 3rd round pick from last year, is still playing better than him, I believe.

Ngakoue is excellent, but he's also way overachieving anyone's scouting report on him. The reason he dropped to round 3 is because he didn't project as an every-down player (short in height, short arms), but so far he's been able to overcome those limitations this year (PFF graded him badly last year, mind you, because he was just a boom-or-bust pass rusher). I wouldn't hold his performance against Fowler.

I'm not sure how good Fowler is ultimately going to be, but at least for the time being, he's on a trajectory to not be on the same list of the Jags 1st round picks that preceded him.

*Legion* wrote:

I'm not sure how good Fowler is ultimately going to be, but at least for the time being, he's on a trajectory to not be on the same list of the Jags 1st round picks that preceded him.

Way to set the bar high there.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

I'm not sure how good Fowler is ultimately going to be, but at least for the time being, he's on a trajectory to not be on the same list of the Jags 1st round picks that preceded him.

Way to set the bar high there.

He's already passed Da'Quan Bowers' career sack total.

*Legion* wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

I'm not sure how good Fowler is ultimately going to be, but at least for the time being, he's on a trajectory to not be on the same list of the Jags 1st round picks that preceded him.

Way to set the bar high there.

He's already passed Da'Quan Bowers' career sack total.

Yeah, well . . .

IMAGE(http://u.cubeupload.com/MilkmanDanimal/Resignation.gif)

Yeah, solid burn there. Though, to be fair, Bowers was at least a second-rounder.

I'll let you know when he passes Adrian Clayborn then.

Nice article on what a bad job Reese has done with the Giants over the years

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