NFL 2017 Week 5 Thread

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Random Thoughts:

Through three games, Tampa has one sack. One. It was against Mike Glennon, which I’m not sure even counts.

Continuing the less-than-surprising Buccaneers focus, you can make a pretty reasonable argument the Bucs have the best 1-2 punch at 4-3 LB in the league with Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander (Thomas Davis is 900 years old, shut up, Enix). Neither is going to play this week against the Patriots, meaning the middle of the field will be probably wide open for all of Brady’s favorite horizontal and/or seam routes. Gronk is going to have 300 yards receiving alone.

Jared Goff, Jeff Fisher Edition: 54.6% completion, 2.4% TD, 3.4% INT, 5.3 yards/attempt, 9.7 yards/completion.
Jared Goff, Sean McVay Edition: 66.7% completion, 6.0% TD, 0.9% INT, 9.2 yards/attempt, 13.7 yards/completion

IMAGE(http://u.cubeupload.com/MilkmanDanimal/Fisher.jpg)

Dalvin Cook, in the middle of a close division game, made a nifty move to get through the line and potentially pick up big yardage, and then collapsed without being touched, blowing his ACL. This is basically a perfect encapsulation of what it’s like being a Vikings fan. Anticipation, excitement, despair. Fan-wise, it’s worse than being a Browns fan, because Browns fans at least never have anything vaguely resembling hope. Vikings fans? There’s hope, and then they get crushed. It SUCKS for Vikings fans. The good news is the Vikings are building their new headquarters in my suburb, so I look forward to all of Eagan randomly burning down at some point in the future. Irrelevant trivia; Eagan High School won a football game the other night, the first time since November of 2015 they had done so. So, way to really step into a successfully environment, Vikings.

Deshaun Watson, wow. That being said, if he continues with pitches and options, I can’t help but wonder if he’s going to go the way of Marcus Mariota and wind up eternally injured.

The Dolphins scored zero points. Against the Saints. THE SAINTS.

The Chiefs won a highly entertaining game against the Washington Football Team, and Kirk Cousins is still playing well even with the loss of Pierre Garcon and Desean Jackson. Kirk Cousins is going to get PAID this offseason.

GAME PICKS:
I was hoping for Full Dumpster Fire Week, but could really only find four games that really managed to fit the criteria. Sure, some other less-than-ideal matchups, but, well, there were only four, uh, “good” options to match the theme.

This week's games:

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns: JOSH MCCOWN VS. DESHONE KIZER! Other people, I guess! I mean, Kizer got benched, but I think he’s still the starter. I could check, but, well, it’s a Cleveland QB. Anyways, picking Cleveland. Whatever. It’s at home, I refuse to believe in this Jets team in any way after last week’s utterly comic explosion of incompetence barely managed to beat Jacksonville’s utterly comic explosion of incompetence. Also, there is nothing better than the Jets as overtly trying to tank the season, and winding up 2-2. Josh McCown has delivered the #1, #2, and #1 overall pick the prior three years in a row, and he’s WINNING.

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts: BRIAN HOYER VS. JACOBY BRISSETT! Brissett looks like somebody who’s maybe ready to be a long-term backup after a few years’ more experience, and Brian Hoyer looks like Brian Hoyer, who has basically spent the better part of the last five years being the King of Marginal QBs. He’s the patron saint of guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh McCown, Case Keenum, and all those other QBs who are just good enough to start a game or two and just bad enough to get you fired when they wind up having to start anything more than that.

Functionally Homeless Chargers at New York Giants: He’s a football team moved to a new city with about as zero a fanbase as you could possibly have and a predilection for losing games in bizarre ways, she’s a football team with plenty of good players but the offensive line is so bad they keep losing. Together, they fight crime. And are a combined 0-8.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: It’s Matt Cassel vs. Jay Cutler, and it’s one injury away from Brandon Weeden vs. Jay Cutler. It is not, however, [EXPERIENCED QB WHO PLAYS A SIMILAR STYLE TO MARIOTA NAME IS REDACTED] vs. Jay Cutler, because ‘MURICA. Matt Cassel last week went 4/10 for 21 yards, 2 sacks, 2 INTs, and a fumble. That’s almost inconceivably awful, like he’s so immobile in the pocket there’s something wrong with his legs, like he can’t bend at the knees so has to basically stand at attention before and during games. That’s totally the kind of thing that makes you a viable player in the NFL, though. Also, Jay Cutler sucks.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: A tragically good game, with actual real players. My general take is the Cowboys put up 30 on what appears to be a genuinely good Rams defense, and, even with Rodgers being able to put points up, it’s probably not enough to overcome Dallas.

GAME PICKS:

MAKE YOUR WEEKLY GAME PICS HERE. Reminder, your two worst weeks are dropped.

Week 4 Results
*Legion*: 5-0
Infyrnos: 4-1
Abu5217: 4-1
Vector: 4-1
sr_malo: 4-1
Rat Boy: 4-1
TheGameGuru: 4-1
garion333: 4-1
cube: 4-1
oldmanscene24: 3-2
PorkSmoothie89: 3-2
MilkmanDanimal: 3-2
UpToIsomorphism: 3-2
Zaque: 3-2
ballnchained: 3-2
karmajay: 2-3
tboon: 2-3
Jayhawker: 2-3
Oddsmakers: 2-3
Kush15: 1-4
Torq: 1-4
LeapingGnome: 1-4

Season to Date
ballnchained: 15-5
oldmanscene24: 14-6
UpToIsomorphism: 14-6
*Legion*: 14-6
MilkmanDanimal: 14-6
TheGameGuru: 14-6
Infyrnos: 12-8
Rat Boy: 12-8
Vector: 11-9
karmajay: 11-9
sr_malo: 11-9
PorkSmoothie89: 11-9
garion333: 11-4
Abu5217: 10-10
Jayhawker: 10-10
Oddsmakers: 10-10
tboon: 9-11
LeapingGnome: 9-11
Zaque: 9-11
cube: 9-11
Torq: 9-11
kaostheory: 7-8
EvilDead: 7-8
iaintgotnopants: 7-13
Kush15: 5-10
Nomad: 4-1
Minase: 4-1
Jowner: 4-1

Huh. Wed. I don't know what to say.

Games so great you posted them twice.

Stele wrote:

Huh. Wed. I don't know what to say.

IMAGE(https://media1.giphy.com/media/l46CePn9MwrfX0Y24/giphy.gif)

He just wants to make us feel doubly stressed out over our picks.

And oh yeah, Cam Newton did a thing.

Rat Boy wrote:

And oh yeah, Cam Newton did a thing.

The top comment is spot on:

Hey, Cam, remember how you feel when people ask if a black QB can learn the intricacies of an NFL offense?

I know I made picks last week. I picked all home teams except the Bucs (which I believe was a very respectable 0-5). I blame Legion's website for eating my picks.

How I went 4-1, I’ll never know.

Cam's so classy. And during the month the NFL pretends it cares about women. Corporate synergy!

Top_Shelf wrote:

Cam's so classy. And during the month the NFL pretends it cares about women. Corporate synergy!

Queue slideshow of players involved in domestic abuse wearing pink merchandise.

Note: when Milkman sent me the picks, he put down San Diego Chargers. I was hoping he wouldn't notice.

JFC, Cam.

It pisses me off as a fan. It especially pisses me off as a media guy. There aren't many print journalists left in North Cackalacky, and Jourdan Rodrigue is one of them.

Anyway, this passage from the Observer's sports columnist really set me off last night:

Rodrigue ended by asking Newton – whom she had introduced herself to on the first day of her employment with The Observer in October 2016 – if he knew her name after she had covered the team almost every day for the past year.

Newton said he did not.

“Jourdan Rodrigue, Charlotte Observer,” she said, and then walked away.

C'mon, Cam. Get your head out of the ass. This reporter has been in your locker room every goddamn day fora year. She has asked you questions! Good questions! Smart questions! Pay some f**king attention.

Once a week (on Sunday and sometimes Monday but never Thursday because Thursday night games suck) the NFL is so much fun. It's the other six days that make me question why I put up with this sh*t.

*Legion* wrote:

Note: when Milkman sent me the picks, he put down San Diego Chargers. I was hoping he wouldn't notice.

Ah, I went from the accidental joke to the intentional joke. I'm sure that would offend the four remaining Chargers fans.

Enix wrote:

JFC, Cam.

It pisses me off as a fan. It especially pisses me off as a media guy. There aren't many print journalists left in North Cackalacky, and Jourdan Rodrigue is one of them.

Anyway, this passage from the Observer's sports columnist really set me off last night:

Rodrigue ended by asking Newton – whom she had introduced herself to on the first day of her employment with The Observer in October 2016 – if he knew her name after she had covered the team almost every day for the past year.

Newton said he did not.

“Jourdan Rodrigue, Charlotte Observer,” she said, and then walked away.

C'mon, Cam. Get your head out of the ass. This reporter has been in your locker room every goddamn day fora year. She has asked you questions! Good questions! Smart questions! Pay some f**king attention.

Once a week (on Sunday and sometimes Monday but never Thursday because Thursday night games suck) the NFL is so much fun. It's the other six days that make me question why I put up with this sh*t.

Wait, a first overall pick in the NFC South said something stupid to a woman, and it wasn't Jameis Winston?

IMAGE(http://u.cubeupload.com/MilkmanDanimal/fistpump.gif)

Wow, those are some bad games. So hard to pick when my logic (heh) boils down to "well, someone has to win, right?"

Enix wrote:

JFC, Cam.

It pisses me off as a fan. It especially pisses me off as a media guy. There aren't many print journalists left in North Cackalacky, and Jourdan Rodrigue is one of them.

Anyway, this passage from the Observer's sports columnist really set me off last night:

Rodrigue ended by asking Newton – whom she had introduced herself to on the first day of her employment with The Observer in October 2016 – if he knew her name after she had covered the team almost every day for the past year.

Newton said he did not.

“Jourdan Rodrigue, Charlotte Observer,” she said, and then walked away.

C'mon, Cam. Get your head out of the ass. This reporter has been in your locker room every goddamn day fora year. She has asked you questions! Good questions! Smart questions! Pay some f**king attention.

What a tool. So much for giving him the benefit of the doubt with things.

Abu5217 wrote:

Wow, those are some bad games. So hard to pick when my logic (heh) boils down to "well, someone has to win, right?"

Yeah I keep forgetting to make picks. This list isn't going to entice me to remember

Stele wrote:
Abu5217 wrote:

Wow, those are some bad games. So hard to pick when my logic (heh) boils down to "well, someone has to win, right?"

Yeah I keep forgetting to make picks. This list isn't going to entice me to remember

I found the number of completely awful games this week simply hilarious and decided to run with it. It just seems like there's one good team (KC), a bunch of vaguely decent but flawed teams, and a massive number of teams that are completely freaking awful.

There's a reasonable chance a Josh McCown-led team might pick outside of the top five. I mean, wow.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
Stele wrote:
Abu5217 wrote:

Wow, those are some bad games. So hard to pick when my logic (heh) boils down to "well, someone has to win, right?"

Yeah I keep forgetting to make picks. This list isn't going to entice me to remember

I found the number of completely awful games this week simply hilarious and decided to run with it. It just seems like there's one good team (KC), a bunch of vaguely decent but flawed teams, and a massive number of teams that are completely freaking awful.

There's a reasonable chance a Josh McCown-led team might pick outside of the top five. I mean, wow.

As you well know, DVOA pretty much confirms this:

The Chiefs are a strong team, but not historically strong. Now that opponent adjustments have kicked in and boosted the Patriots' (still last place) defensive DVOA a little bit, no units this year qualify as particularly great or terrible historically. Perhaps the only worthy note along those lines is that the No. 1 Buffalo defense has the worst DVOA ever for a defense ranking No. 1 after four weeks.

The clearest trend through the first month of 2017 is the colossal gap between the bad teams and the rest of the league. With only one team undefeated and every team showing flaws, it may seem like there are fewer good teams in the NFL than usual. But the opposite is true: suddenly in 2017 the NFL has turned into Lake Wobegon. There are currently 20 teams with above-average DVOA ratings and only 12 teams that are below zero. That's how bad Indianapolis, Cleveland, and to a lesser extent Miami have been this year. None of them is historically among the worst September teams, but because there are three of them, that's enough to offset all of the teams sitting with DVOA ratings above zero. In fact, the gap isn't really 20 positive teams and 12 negative teams; it is really about 24 good or average teams and eight horrendous teams.

This is two years in a row where the season kinda stinks. Playoffs redeemed things last year, but I think we've seen peak NFL.

Where's that kid who was loosening his arm when we need him?

Well, if Cam wants to get another female-focussed endorsement, Massengill seems like an appropriate choice.

This is mostly for Legion, but some of the rest of you might also enjoy this:
Ask Vic is back.

PFF has released their first and second team All-Pros for the first quarter of the season.

Three 49ers made first team - Trent Brown, the right tackle I've been raving about since last year, DeForest Buckner, who has edged out JJ Watt and Aaron Donald for the spot... and special teams coverage man Raheem Mostert, whose name I totally knew before today.

And of course, Jalen Ramsey has been the league's top shutdown corner this year, and is the lone Jaguar on the first team.

Jags added Calais Campbell and Myles Jack to the second team, and the Niners have Jaquiski Tartt and punter Bradley Pinion on there.

It'll be great next year when both of these teams draft quarterbacks.

Phishposer wrote:

This is mostly for Legion, but some of the rest of you might also enjoy this:
Ask Vic is back.

Smashing that Like button. I love this. I hated how he was reduced to once a week at the Packers site, and then I recently checked back and he was gone completely as far as I could tell. Obviously I missed wherever the explanation of the change was, because I did not frequent the site very much after Vic got the reduced role.

This is going straight into my daily bookmarks. Thanks for the heads-up.

So, for tonight, MLB Kwon Alexander is out, as is WLB Lavonte David and safety T.J. Ward. Tampa will be starting rookies at safety and MLB. While LB Kendell Beckwith has played phenomenally well this year and PFF named him Honorable Mention on their team, he's still a rookie.

It's a really, really good week to have anybody on the Patriots offense in fantasy football, I'd bet.

garion333 wrote:

This is two years in a row where the season kinda stinks. Playoffs redeemed things last year, but I think we've seen peak NFL.

I think the largest factor here is that the young QBs have not been good enough.

The league's top QBs is completely the 30+ crowd.

We just have to look at the list of QBs who received second contracts, and how they've progressed since then. Kaepernick. Tannehill. Dalton. These were supposed to be guys making their way up the list.

Flacco has tanked. Cam Newton has leveled off sharply.

Russell Wilson is one of the few who has earned his money, but he seems to have a hard ceiling that's just beneath the elite caliber. Matt Ryan lives next door to him. Matt Stafford lives in the slightly less nice neighborhood around the corner, and he's bought up the whole block.

Andrew Luck is the guy the class voted Most Likely to Be The Next Elite QB, but he keeps not quite making it, injuries being part of but not all of the problem.

Carr, Winston, and Mariota have not hit their peaks yet, so we'll see where they eventually settle, though I'm not sure I see any of the three pushing through that elite ceiling.

In the mid-to-late '80s, Montana, Elway, Marino, and Kelly were all cementing themselves as the league's elite, in their mid-to-late 20s. Their competition was mostly other young guys like Boomer Esiason and Randall Cunningham, with Warren Moon being the main older-guy exception.

What we're seeing today is guys in their late 30s, starting to push 40, staying out in front ahead of entire crops of young QBs.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

So, for tonight, MLB Kwon Alexander is out, as is WLB Lavonte David and safety T.J. Ward. Tampa will be starting rookies at safety and MLB. While LB Kendell Beckwith has played phenomenally well this year and PFF named him Honorable Mention on their team, he's still a rookie.

It's a really, really good week to have anybody on the Patriots offense in fantasy football, I'd bet.

This seems like the kind of game that should be a 39-35 shootout score, but since it's Thursday Night Football, it's equally likely that everyone on the field forgets how to play the f*cking game and it ends 13-7, after two missed TB field goal attempts keep them from tying.

*Legion* wrote:
garion333 wrote:

This is two years in a row where the season kinda stinks. Playoffs redeemed things last year, but I think we've seen peak NFL.

I think the largest factor here is that the young QBs have not been good enough.

The league's top QBs is completely the 30+ crowd.

We just have to look at the list of QBs who received second contracts, and how they've progressed since then. Kaepernick. Tannehill. Dalton. These were supposed to be guys making their way up the list.

Flacco has tanked. Cam Newton has leveled off sharply.

Russell Wilson is one of the few who has earned his money, but he seems to have a hard ceiling that's just beneath the elite caliber. Matt Ryan lives next door to him. Matt Stafford lives in the slightly less nice neighborhood around the corner, and he's bought up the whole block.

Andrew Luck is the guy the class voted Most Likely to Be The Next Elite QB, but he keeps not quite making it, injuries being part of but not all of the problem.

Carr, Winston, and Mariota have not hit their peaks yet, so we'll see where they eventually settle, though I'm not sure I see any of the three pushing through that elite ceiling.

In the mid-to-late '80s, Montana, Elway, Marino, and Kelly were all cementing themselves as the league's elite, in their mid-to-late 20s. Their competition was mostly other young guys like Boomer Esiason and Randall Cunningham, with Warren Moon being the main older-guy exception.

What we're seeing today is guys in their late 30s, starting to push 40, staying out in front ahead of entire crops of young QBs.

I'm also assuming there's an additional element of there's being a much higher focus on passing, meaning QBs have to produce earlier without the benefit of being able to lean on running games to help carry them, plus a notably dentation in the quality of offensive line play, meaning they're not getting the time in the pocket.

*Legion* wrote:
Phishposer wrote:

This is mostly for Legion, but some of the rest of you might also enjoy this:
Ask Vic is back.

Smashing that Like button. I love this. I hated how he was reduced to once a week at the Packers site, and then I recently checked back and he was gone completely as far as I could tell. Obviously I missed wherever the explanation of the change was, because I did not frequent the site very much after Vic got the reduced role.

This is going straight into my daily bookmarks. Thanks for the heads-up.

Last year with the once a week was as he eased himself into retirement, which he did at the end of the season.

*Legion* wrote:
Phishposer wrote:

This is mostly for Legion, but some of the rest of you might also enjoy this:
Ask Vic is back.

Smashing that Like button. I love this. I hated how he was reduced to once a week at the Packers site, and then I recently checked back and he was gone completely as far as I could tell. Obviously I missed wherever the explanation of the change was, because I did not frequent the site very much after Vic got the reduced role.

This is going straight into my daily bookmarks. Thanks for the heads-up.

I saw it referenced in the new version of this on packers.com called "Insider Inbox" since it's not Vic anymore. Someone was asking if it was really Vic, and the Packers staff confirmed it was.

As to why he went to once a week and then disappeared -- It was a phased retirement. My read is the retirement was completely voluntary.

I had the stupidest grin on my face reading through what's there so far. He's off the leash, and it's f*cking fantastic:

Vic wrote:

I knew my storage room was toast, so I took my old friend Jim down to the landing on the steps under the house and had a hurricane party as the water rose.

*Legion* wrote:

Russell Wilson is one of the few who has earned his money, but he seems to have a hard ceiling that's just beneath the elite caliber.

Andrew Luck is the guy the class voted Most Likely to Be The Next Elite QB, but he keeps not quite making it, injuries being part of but not all of the problem.

These two are victims of their GM trying to kill them on the field than anything else.

Teddy B was heading for great, with his playoff win botched by a kicker, then derailed by freak injury. He'll be back this season.

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