Hurricane Irma

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I figured this would be a good thing to post about since the storm has strengthened considerably and is going to hit the Caribbeans and potentially Florida pretty hard in the days to come. I don't know much about hurricane preparedness, but here is a thread for people to talk about it if they feel the need.

Huh. I was going to start one today or tomorrow, since the whole East Coast is basically on notice. Although... This one could head inland NNW through Alabama and Georgia and sail on up to the Great Lakes.

Wherever it goes, though, it won't be a small event. Cuba, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the entire south of Florida are right in the crosshairs. It's now the strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin (excluding the Carribean and the Gulf of Mexico - including those, it's "only" in fifth place). Could be another Andrew for south Florida, I guess.

Read just a while ago on my local news site that it is now a category 5 storm.

Damn.

Does anyone know if it's common for hurricanes to cross the Florida peninsula? That would absolutely suck if a storm hit the gulf coast again so soon.

From what I saw of the storm track (and I haven't seen much), it looks like it's going to brush past the keys towards the Gulf. Not sure if it's supposed to swoop up towards the panhandle or keep going more west-ish though. Hopefully if i does get to the Gulf coast, it will have significantly weakened.

It's looking now like it will approach South Florida and then turn right. Timing is everything. But remember, it's the upper right quadrant that has the worst wind and storm surge (NE quadrant).

Be safe, Florida goodjers.

PaladinTom wrote:

Damn.

Does anyone know if it's common for hurricanes to cross the Florida peninsula? That would absolutely suck if a storm hit the gulf coast again so soon.

Yes, it has happened in the past. All depends on which way the winds blow.

Talking with people from Marco Island, south Florida sounds really worried.

Puerto Rico is going to be hit hard whatever happens.

Interactive hurricane intensity scale demonstration. Note that Irma is currently clocking in at around 180+ mph.

Meanwhile, Jose is forming in the Atlantic, though it's only a tropical storm at the moment. If we're lucky, it'll stay weaker and veer off to sea.

We're in Fort Wilderness, and will be for the next two weeks. WDW evacuates the campground if tropical force winds are forecasted. In that case we'd park our big butt at the Magic Kingdom, and they'd put us up at a resort. This gets our home away from trees, and we can otherwise button it up.

Given that we're pretty far inland and at the most overengineered, well planned place in Florida, I'm not sure if it's worth leaving for somewhere less prepared for this sort of thing if the storm decides to take a detour. I think we're staying and making an adventure out of it.

Just be safe.

Avoid areas near construction cranes, Miami officials warn ahead of Irma

A senior scientist at the National Hurricane Center:

Sadly not available on YouTube, but this is mesmerizing

Also this one

Batten down the hatches, Puerto Ricans, and Floridians! Make those preparations and get those prepper instincts going.

It is a historically large storm, but per the article

It's not unusual for large storms to register on seismometers for hours to days as they pass over.

Just spoke to my sister in law who is from the NW coast of Puerto Rico. Their biggest concern isn't wind damage or flooding, its going 3-4 months without power. The hardest part of the storm should hit their area in about 24 hours...please keep her family in your thoughts.

A big chunk of family is primed to come up to NC from central Florida if the need to. Looks like they have already told Key West and Miami area citizens to evacuate.

It's hard to imagine people having to evacuate from *central* Florida. Not that they don't get hurricanes, but they're typically okay there and tend to have housing built to withstand the hurricanes they get.

Well, St. Petersburg is on that little peninsula on the west coast and below sea level so it would be real susceptible to any type of flooding. A majority of it is old old old housing as well.

I recommend Tropical Tidbits for quick storm tracking purposes.

In particular, they're an easy place to get a gif of the Euro hurricane model: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...

bekkilyn wrote:

It's hard to imagine people having to evacuate from *central* Florida. Not that they don't get hurricanes, but they're typically okay there and tend to have housing built to withstand the hurricanes they get.

Central Florida hasn't been hit directly by a major hurricane in years and is really not all that prepared. Orlando's far enough inland that they'll probably get by with minor damage in most cases, but there's a ton of coastal property situated basically on sandbars in the Space Coast region (source: grew up there).

bekkilyn wrote:

It's hard to imagine people having to evacuate from *central* Florida. Not that they don't get hurricanes, but they're typically okay there and tend to have housing built to withstand the hurricanes they get.

That's where we're at with our current stay @Disney. No doubt I'm a bit concerned about our property (though it's all insured), but our lives and the few things we carry which are truly valuable to us are safer here than anywhere else within hundreds of miles. This place can take wind and flooding. Power will come back quicker than elsewhere. Other supplies are plentiful.

The forecast models keep moving Irma's average predicted path more west, though they're still all over the place. We have friends who already moved from Orlando to Alabama. Nobody knows if that was smart or not. They may need to keep moving. Others who moved to South Carolina may end up having to move again. There's still no telling where this thing might end up.

As has been said, the forecasts are all over the place, but...

IMAGE(https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/map/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL11_swath_1280x720.jpg?v=ap&w=1280&h=720&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0)

mindset.threat wrote:

Just spoke to my sister in law who is from the NW coast of Puerto Rico. Their biggest concern isn't wind damage or flooding, its going 3-4 months without power. The hardest part of the storm should hit their area in about 24 hours...please keep her family in your thoughts.

I can't even fathom losing power for 4 months. Months!

Hope your family stays safe.

That forecasts gives Orlando about a day's worth of up to 130mph winds, plus 25 inches of rain...

Never mind what I wrote here, I was looking at the wrong thing.

Just keep in mind that the paths on the weather forecasts are the probable area of the center of the storm, not an illustration of the extent of it.

Irma is currently the size of Texas:
IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DI_TGGrWsAA1uw9.jpg:large)

It won't see the worst damage across the entire area, of course, but Florida is likely to get some damage even if it veers off and hits the Carolinas.

Not to mention the islands it's currently smashing into: Barbuda (1:47 am on Wednesday), Puerto Rico (Today), Hispaniola (Thursday), Cuba (Sat/Sun), and the Keys.

There's enough variance in the track to put it on either coast of Florida. Not nearly enough to put any part of peninsular Florida outside of the major effects of the storm...

mindset.threat wrote:

Just spoke to my sister in law who is from the NW coast of Puerto Rico. Their biggest concern isn't wind damage or flooding, its going 3-4 months without power.

I read in the last day or two that Puerto Rico has bled away a huge number of skilled people to do powerline work, likely due to the economic distress down there and Congress' absolute refusal to let them declare bankruptcy.

3-4 months without power might be optimistic.

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