NFL 2017: Offseason / Pre-Draft

I'm just going to leave this here...

Bleacher report popped up on my phone today saying Romo was being tied to the Texans and the Broncos during the combine. Whatever that means.

Just Elway baiting Rick Smith into doing something silly for a QB again.

*Legion* wrote:

I'm just going to leave this here...

Genuinely shocked it wasn't Aguayo-related.

Mike Glennon could be successful on a team with an offensive line and an at least OK set of skill position players. Big arm, good deep ball, is a bit too willing to check down when pressured, didn't make a huge number of mistakes other than occasionally dropping the ball while passing (no, really, he's done it on two separate occasions).

Think he's a viable low-end to possibly mid-range starter, and $15 million is pretty reasonable when you look at what QBs not on their rookie contracts are making. I mean, it's not like Osweiler is exactly a comforting comparison, but Mike Glennon immediately makes that at least a viable offense in Houston; he did pretty well on completely awful Tampa teams.

I have watched a depressing high amount of Mike Glennon and am predisposed to expect Tampa's QBs to be awful, and even I think he's decent. $15 million sounds reasonable considering the going rate for QBs

I'll follow that up with a WTF happened to Aguayo column. It's actually more of a "how did I get my scouting so wrong" column.

Chuck rated his the highest kicking prospect last year with a 3rd round grade. Aguayo sucked so bad he's actually adjusting how he rates kicker prospects:

I am not making a drastic shift in how I scout prospects, as I was able to identify the issues that were present. The breakdown was in being able to project properly, and so I have rebuilt my matrix for grading kickers. Rather than viewing statistics and mechanics separately, I have a new sliding scale that adjusts the weightings for each category based on the number of issues present, and then creates a combined grade. With this new process, I hope to be able to more accurately grade based on the issues present, rather than underpricing the risk that is inherent in all prospects.

Saints are apparently making Brandin Cooks available for trade.

New England reportedly offered their 1st rounder, pick #32, and the Saints declined.

The Eagles and the Titans, both with mid-round 1sts, are supposedly the likely buyers.

New Orleans believes (correctly) that they can't afford to keep all 3 of their young WRs, and while they don't have to worry about Michael Thomas for a couple of years, Willie Snead is an exclusive rights free agent, and Brandin Cooks is in the last pre-option year of his rookie deal. The Saints appear to plan on paying Snead, and moving Cooks.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

$15 million sounds reasonable considering the going rate for QBs

Kids, work hard, and one day, you too could be maybe-possibly a bottom tier starting QB and get $15 mil a year.

I don't care if you like defense Timmy, get your ass under center.

The Raiders have found someone to pony up the Las Vegas stadium money they need: Bank of America.

*Legion* wrote:

Saints are apparently making Brandin Cooks available for trade.

New England reportedly offered their 1st rounder, pick #32, and the Saints declined.

The Eagles and the Titans, both with mid-round 1sts, are supposedly the likely buyers.

New Orleans believes (correctly) that they can't afford to keep all 3 of their young WRs, and while they don't have to worry about Michael Thomas for a couple of years, Willie Snead is an exclusive rights free agent, and Brandin Cooks is in the last pre-option year of his rookie deal. The Saints appear to plan on paying Snead, and moving Cooks.

I would so rather face Willie Snead than Brandin Cooks; there's absolutely no question Cooks is a legitimate threat wherever he lines up, and Snead is a guy who's really fast and can take advantage of a defense in the right situation. I don't think Snead will cost a fraction of what Cooks would on a re-up, so it's likely far more the fact the Saints have been fielding a defense containing bottom-roster players and actual burning chunks of human feces for a few years, and are attempting to reload.

A mid-first round pick with the possibility of paying out a huge contract is going to be a rough thing to swallow. If I'm the Titans, I maybe think about it, as you're building an offense and you're in a terrible division where one guy could really help set you up for repeated playoff runs. The Eagles are in a much tougher situation, and there's no way I'd do that.

*Legion* wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

$15 million sounds reasonable considering the going rate for QBs

Kids, work hard, and one day, you too could be maybe-possibly a bottom tier starting QB and get $15 mil a year.

I don't care if you like defense Timmy, get your ass under center.

QB is the singly most important position in all of sports; if Timmy can play QB, Timmy should play QB.

Spoiler:

NO NOT TEBOW THE EXPECTED PICTURE IS NOT INCLUDED.

*Legion* wrote:

I don't care if you like defense Timmy, get your ass under center.

And then the murders began.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

I would so rather face Willie Snead than Brandin Cooks; there's absolutely no question Cooks is a legitimate threat wherever he lines up, and Snead is a guy who's really fast and can take advantage of a defense in the right situation. I don't think Snead will cost a fraction of what Cooks would on a re-up, so it's likely far more the fact the Saints have been fielding a defense containing bottom-roster players and actual burning chunks of human feces for a few years, and are attempting to reload.

Snead is a good WR2, and if the team considers Michael Thomas their WR1 (and he is, he had the most targets and most catches and was only a rookie), then the investment it will cost to keep Snead is more in line with the position than keeping Cooks, who would be the league's most expensive WR2.

A mid-first round pick with the possibility of paying out a huge contract is going to be a rough thing to swallow. If I'm the Titans, I maybe think about it, as you're building an offense and you're in a terrible division where one guy could really help set you up for repeated playoff runs. The Eagles are in a much tougher situation, and there's no way I'd do that.

The thing about Cooks is that I doubt he will equal his New Orleans value anywhere else. He's made for track meet football, and that spread out Sean Payton offense that gives him room to operate. He's used to playing from a lot of these:

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/JUeFmzt.jpg)

... and going somewhere like Tennessee, he'd be in a lot of these instead:

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/HZ7V20H.png)

The thing about Cooks is that I doubt he will equal his New Orleans value anywhere else. He's made for track meet football, and that spread out Sean Payton offense that gives him room to operate. He's used to playing from a lot of these:

I could see him doing well in NE (doubtless why they already offered a 1st for him) or maybe PIT, if they hadn't already paid Brown. Baltimore would also be interesting, they have been missing that speed guy to draw PI since Smith decided to waste his prime years in SF.

Minase wrote:
The thing about Cooks is that I doubt he will equal his New Orleans value anywhere else. He's made for track meet football, and that spread out Sean Payton offense that gives him room to operate. He's used to playing from a lot of these:

I could see him doing well in NE (doubtless why they already offered a 1st for him) or maybe PIT, if they hadn't already paid Brown. Baltimore would also be interesting, they have been missing that speed guy to draw PI since Smith decided to waste his prime years in SF.

Baltimore has Mike Wallace, they're good there. Cooks would be a total waste in Baltimore otherwise as they need people who can make contested catches and Cooks isn't that guy due to his size. They should bring back Q.

NE would be perfect for him, but obviously they don't have high enough picks.

Tennessee would likely be a death sentence, but maybe it's exactly what they need.

Edit: Also, Torrey Smith was released by the 49ers and he's still got his roots in Maryland, so I'm hoping he comes back on a cheap contract.

Edit: Edit: But based on the past, the Ravens will likely wait out the WR market and pick up the odd man out.

Carolina is in the market for a pass-catcher or two. They're going to let their No. 4 and No. 5 receivers walk (Brown and Bersin), and there's the sneaking suspicion in Charlotte that their top 3 guys (Benjamin, Funchess and Ginn) aren't all that great.

I haven't heard Charlotte making a play for any of the FAs out there (lord knows they finally have the cap space) but reportedly the Panthers want to kick the tires on the Washington receiver who ran like a 3.5 40 at the combine.

Update: Well, Bersin's back in the fold. Carolina re-upped him for a year. I guess they like his special teams play? Or maybe they need someone to deactivate each week.

John Ross may have broken records, but he's had an injury filled career. I wouldn't want him on my team for that reason, but damn he's athletic.

Carolina should probably get a FA adept at route running. Benjamin will likely fair better this coming season.

Point taken on Tennessee's offense; I'd forgotten about the Mularkey Effect. Still just see a team being willing to fork over a mid-first round pick and a huge contract on a guy unless they feel he's the missing piece of a serious playoff contender. Philadelphia just doesn't feel like that at all. Idle thought; Cooks to the Patriots, Jimmy G to the Saints to be potential QB of the future, shuffle a few draft picks around. Presuming he turns out to be terrible, I like the idea.

Lots of rumors that Desean Jackson and the Bucs have serious mutual interest. I'm OK with this.

Baltimore has Mike Wallace, they're good there. Cooks would be a total waste in Baltimore otherwise as they need people who can make contested catches and Cooks isn't that guy due to his size. They should bring back Q.

NE would be perfect for him, but obviously they don't have high enough picks.

Tennessee would likely be a death sentence, but maybe it's exactly what they need.

Edit: Also, Torrey Smith was released by the 49ers and he's still got his roots in Maryland, so I'm hoping he comes back on a cheap contract.

Edit: Edit: But based on the past, the Ravens will likely wait out the WR market and pick up the odd man out.

Hasn't Wallace lost a step? I don't think of him as the burner he was in past years, but I could be wrong. Smith coming back would be great for them.

And ultimately I agree with your final edit, the Ravens are one of the savvier clubs in free agency so it's likely they'll wait until the end of the process.

Baltimore's issue is not speed at WR. Between Wallace and Perriman they have the go routes covered. What they need is a big body possession receiver with solid hands. They tried using TE's for that, but Pitta can't stay healthy and they need folks who can block in those positions. They also need a solid blocking back (which may be Terrence West's biggest flaw).

Sadly, I see too many holes in the Ravens' roster and too little cap room to be optimistic about their chances next year.

Minase wrote:

Hasn't Wallace lost a step? I don't think of him as the burner he was in past years, but I could be wrong.

He may not be as fast as he was when he was in Pittsburgh, but playing for Miami and Minny didn't kill his speed, just his street cred.

If Torrey Smith comes back to the Ravens I'm sure Mike Wallace will be cut, mostly for salary reasons.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Lots of rumors that Desean Jackson and the Bucs have serious mutual interest. I'm OK with this.

No no, he heard "Bay" and thought San Francisco, not Tampa. Cal Bear wants to come back home!

Every receiver that's played for Shanahan has been "linked" to the 49ers so far: Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Terrelle Pryor.

Still just see a team being willing to fork over a mid-first round pick and a huge contract on a guy unless they feel he's the missing piece of a serious playoff contender.

I mean, I don't necessarily think one has to see it that way. You expect to get a good player with a 1st round pick, trading the pick for someone you're convinced is good (and is still young) isn't necessarily a win-now move. It's still a young player that you're expecting to nail down for 4-5 years. The size of the contract part, yeah, this is where I start to agree with you on Philadelphia, who has a whopping $8 mil of free cap space in 2017, third least only to the Chiefs and Cowboys. Not in a great spend-big-now position. Whereas Tennessee has the 5th most at $61 million.

JAYHAWKER SENT ME A T-SHIRT OF THE GREATEST PLAY FROM THE GREATEST 346 POUND LINEMAN/QB IN THE LEAGUE!

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/Gxa0vqf.jpg)

IMAGE(http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/yuifmk/picture123090289/ALTERNATES/FREE_640/POE)

Thank you for the shirt! I absolutely love that it says "346 pounds" on it. This I can wear without shame, unlike the JaMarcus jersey.

The Chiefs have, sadly, allowed Dontari Poe to reach free agency. Sadly, that is, unless the 49ers or Jaguars sign him.

Took me long enough to send it out! I was afraid he was going to be a 49er before you got the shirt.

That said, there is talk that the Chiefs may try to keep him. But that might also just be talk to help lettuce fans don easy for when he leave. I just hope he doesn't end up in Oakland.

*Legion* wrote:

I absolutely love that it says "346 pounds" on it. This I can wear without shame, unlike the JaMarcus jersey.

You know, between those two and my Byron Leftwich jersey, I have more fat passer shirts than the average Bucs fan.

Jayhawker wrote:

That said, there is talk that the Chiefs may try to keep him. But that might also just be talk to help lettuce fans don easy for when he leave. I just hope he doesn't end up in Oakland.

He's asking for a lot, and there's probably reason to think that he won't necessarily get that asking price on the open market. But when it comes down to it, the Chiefs are dead last in cap space, with $4 million, and there's 11 teams with at least 10 times that amount.

Indy is probably a strong possibility and they have $55 mil to play with. And of course SF and Jacksonville have $96 mil and $75 mil respectively, just sayin' Lynch/Peters and Coughlin/Caldwell.

I think the Chiefs have more, now that they have released Jamal Charles. They will also get a chunk when they release Nick Foles. They definitely aren't in great shape, but they have more moves to make to allocate some space.

I'm wondering if Maclin will be let go.

Still not sure Poe is the best place to spend a large chunk of any space they create. They might have bigger holes to fill.

Time for your daily-ish Browns update!

Some think Terrell Pryor is worthr $12 mil/yr and the Browns analytics department reportedly think that's crazy. I've gotta believe Pryor is worth $8 mil/yr at this point and the Browns are going to play chicken with him over it. I expect Pryor will be elsewhere next year.

Browns buzz: Myles Garrett at No. 1 and Jimmy Garoppolo with No. 12 would be their dream scenario. That's from Mary Kay Cabot, so it's probably right from Sashi's mouth. I think the Browns would be nuts to pass on Myles Garrett after the combine, but they could be drumming up interest in the 1st overall pick since there's still no undisputed top QB. Garrett, however, is clearly the top pick this year.

Garoppolo for 1.12 seems like a reach to me, but less of a reach than a more developmental QB from the draft this year. That said, I wonder if the Pats would make this trade, trade down a little from 1.12 and use that pick to trade for Brandin Cooks. That seems like the sort of sh*t NE would manage to pull off.

garion333 wrote:

I've gotta believe Pryor is worth $8/yr at this point

Harsh, dude.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
garion333 wrote:

I've gotta believe Pryor is worth $8/yr at this point

Harsh, dude.

lol Oops. Fixed.

I like Pryor, but I don't think he's worth $12 mil/yr until he shows some more consistency. He's still incredibly raw at WR, though uses his physical gifts really well.

Maybe I'm misreading the WR market right now, which is entirely possible, but I don't see Pryor getting top dollar.

Wow, Brandon Marshall signs a 2 yr deal with the Giants. That's not what I expected, but makes total sense for both parties.

garion333 wrote:

Time for your daily-ish Browns update!

And then the murders began.

Jayhawker wrote:

I think the Chiefs have more, now that they have released Jamal Charles.

Nope, that number is after Charles. The money Charles opened up went to Eric Berry, who was not counting against the cap, as he was a free agent and had not signed his franchise tender.

Foles will open up $6.75 mil, and Maclin could open up another $5.2 mil, but that still just takes them from 32nd in cap space to about 27th, and other teams have guys they've yet to shed too.

Outside of those, there's not *too* many other sources of potential cap relief. Jaye Howard could be let go to open up about $3.9 mil. And the team could go with a rookie punter and free up Dustin Colquitt's $4.1 mil.

garion333 wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:
garion333 wrote:

I've gotta believe Pryor is worth $8/yr at this point

Harsh, dude.

lol Oops. Fixed.

I like Pryor, but I don't think he's worth $12 mil/yr until he shows some more consistency. He's still incredibly raw at WR, though uses his physical gifts really well.

Maybe I'm misreading the WR market right now, which is entirely possible, but I don't see Pryor getting top dollar.

Pryor is such a weird case because of his career arc.

$12 mil/yr would put him around Doug Baldwin's contract, it wouldn't put him in the Antonio/Julio/AJ Green class. So it's maybe not too crazy, taking into account the typical year-by-year contract inflation. Given how he was able to be productive in an offensive worst-case scenario, I don't think he'd be too bad of a guy to take a chance on.