[Discussion] From Russia, With Love

Discussion of Russian influence and propaganda, and their effects on the US and the world today and tomorrow.

Discussion of evidence about the influence of Russian propaganda efforts in the recent US election. This issue will be around for a while, so I figured we should have a place for the occasional article and discussion.

Putin is pursuing large strategic goals: recognition of the annexation of Crimea and international acceptance of foreign aggression to change state borders; Russian control of Ukraine; weakening or even dissolution of the European Union and NATO; restoration of Russia as a great power; and restored dominance over the former Soviet bloc and its environs. In pursuing these aims, Putin is engaged in a disciplined effort to influence democratic politics in the West, including financial and propaganda support for the narrow Brexit victory and for a network of far-right (and pro-Russian) nationalist political parties and groups throughout Europe. Now he has achieved what had to have been his most improbable goal: helping elect a sympathetic U.S. president who wants to form an alliance against terrorism. What will Trump give in exchange? He has already reaffirmed his intention to end support for pro-Western rebels in Syria, which effectively gives Russia a free hand to make President Bashar al-Assad its satrap. The greater danger is Trump’s attitude toward NATO as a “soft” alliance that, like the Western powers in 1939, won’t “die for Danzig.” It would mean the alliance’s end.

In his book “Putinism,” Soviet and Russian historian Walter Laqueur describes the varied ideological strains that animate the former KGB agent. The “Russian national idea” that has emerged is to defend Russia, Eurasia and the world from the anti-civilizational corruption of Western liberal democracy. Frighteningly, Putin’s worldview has resonance in the populist and nationalist fixations of Stephen K. Bannon, the president-elect’s senior counselor, whose stated mission is to “destroy” the “establishment” and end the domination of the “donor class.” Bannon’s “closing argument” ad for Trump, redolent of Russian propaganda, described the United States as a corrupt and failing state because of nefarious “global special interests.” It all points to grave danger for democracy and a world order that has kept the peace for 70 years. Is this what America voted for?

A couple of problematic points:

In pursuing these aims, Putin is engaged in a disciplined effort to influence democratic politics in the West, including financial and propaganda support for the narrow Brexit victory and for a network of far-right (and pro-Russian) nationalist political parties and groups throughout Europe.

There is no evidence at all of Russian financial support for the Brexit vote - only normal propaganda operations. And this is hardly news - virtually every country operates organizations like this in pursuit of their own agendas, and the American government was certainly not quiet about their preference. Was the American government financially intervening in the Brexit vote?

What will Trump give in exchange? He has already reaffirmed his intention to end support for pro-Western rebels in Syria, which effectively gives Russia a free hand to make President Bashar al-Assad its satrap.

This argument has two umm ... minor problems: there are no pro-Western rebels left in Syria, and the government in Syria has been a staunch Soviet / Russian ally since 1944.

It all points to grave danger for democracy and a world order that has kept the peace for 70 years.

Let's see, 70 years ago was ... 1946. Even ignoring the Cold War, MAD, and living on the brink of nuclear annihilation, the world has hardly been peaceful since then and much of the violence has been perpetrated by the United States and its allies (and yes, the Russians have certainly committed their fair share of atrocities as well).

I can't help but think that this author would welcome the return of the Commies (sorry, Russians) as the Enemy - we've always been at war with Eastasia. While that might represent an intellectually comfortable niche, it doesn't line up with the modern world reality.

You suspect the leader of an organization called "The Institute for Democracy in Eastern Europe" of wishing for the return of the Soviet Union?

He said "has kept the peace", not "totally eradicated conflict". And yes, the rise of democracies has indeed improved the world since it's pre-WWII state. We've had the longest run without a major European or World war in pretty much ever. Changing that balance is almost by definition injecting risk into the system.

There is no evidence at all of Russian financial support for the Brexit vote - only normal propaganda operations. And this is hardly news - virtually every country operates organizations like this in pursuit of their own agendas, and the American government was certainly not quiet about their preference. Was the American government financially intervening in the Brexit vote?

There is definitely evidence that Russia is funding far right and separatist parties in Europe. But this goes way beyond propaganda radio broadcasts into, for example, providing a large loan to the National Front in 2014, and keeping UKIP afloat financially during the run-up to Brexit. Unless you've got evidence of the US government loaning millions to UK and European parties, it's not at all the same thing.

This argument has two umm ... minor problems: there are no pro-Western rebels left in Syria, and the government in Syria has been a staunch Soviet / Russian ally since 1944.

Whether there are still FSA affiliates in play has been hotly debated for the last year, and it's not at all clear that they are gone. Reports come in with statements from the FSA periodically. And while Syria was a Russian client, this brings it closer into the fold at a time when the Russians really want to become the regional power sponsor. The Soviets lost Egypt, Lebanon, Iran and other states as clients there since 1944. Their ability to use Assad as a power-projection base to directly affect Middle Eastern affairs was greatly curtailed, until they were invited to put boots on the ground and planes in the air. This represents a large change in the status quo. (Just name the last active Russian ground/air operation in the Middle East...).

I honestly suspect that you've been beating the drum against American interests ("government/business as usual", let's say) that you've lost track of the fact that there are countries out there that would love to make things worse for us, and have largely succeeded. Yes, America needs to improve. But that does not mean that other countries are not capable of being worse than us, on the world stage.

It kind of falls outside the scope of the discussion but since it' s about Russia influencing, prolly something about the actual influencer country would also be of interest.

Russia's Duma decriminalizes domestic violence. ONE vote was against. One abstained. 368 were for.

Ultra-conservatives are really pretty bad at this "family values" stuff sometimes.

Report states that Gay Men in Chechnya are being rounded up into actual concentration camps.

A follow up to recent reports that over 100 gay men had been rounded up and were essentially missing, with several turning up dead.

One man who was released from the camp told the newspaper that he was subjected to violent “interrogations” at the camp, as Chechen officials attempted to get him to confess the names and locations of more gay men.

The officials also seized his mobile phone, targeting his network of contacts regardless of whether they were gay or not.

In case you've not seen the OFFICIAL response about the accusations from the monster in charge yet...

A spokesman for Chechnya’s leader Ramzan Kadyrov denied the allegations, claiming that gay people don’t exist in the region.

Alvi Karimov told Interfax news agency: “You cannot detain and persecute people who simply do not exist in the republic.

“If there were such people in Chechnya, the law-enforcement organs wouldn’t need to have anything to do with them because their relatives would send them somewhere from which there is no returning.”

Also

A Chechen “human rights official,” Kheda Saratova (remember his name when he’s on trial for crimes against humanity), told a radio station, “In our Chechen society, any person who respects our traditions and culture will hunt down this kind of person without any help from authorities, and do everything to make sure that this kind of person does not exist in our society.”
This is all with explicit permission—nay, directive—from the leaders of the Russian federal republic.

Sounds like a human rights atrocity. A job for... Trumpman? Maybe he can bomb Chechnya now...

Better evacuate all the local cafeterias in advance.

Why would he attack over this? Half the Republican party are probably secretly cheering them on.

Rallick wrote:

Why would he attack over this? Half the Republican party are probably secretly cheering them on.

Yes. Several Republicans were cheering Putin on for being a "strong leader". One of Putin's "strong leader" characteristics that they apparently celebrate (just look at the anti-Judicial branch rhetoric here) is the ability round up and imprison people you don't agree with. And the Republican party certainly doesn't agree with homosexuality.