European Politics discussion
Borrowed from predictions thread and to give some context.
Crediting Shadout for first two;
1. Russia testing the limits of NATO and EU unity.
Over the next 2 years Putin will start to poke at Eastern European countries. Russian minority protests, violence toward said minorities, violence from said minorities. It will be incited and coordinated by Russia, but evidence will be weak, and the various 'Putin verstehers' in US and Europe will defend Putin.
There will be increasingly frequent Russian military activities in Baltic and Scandinavia (Finland /Sweden), continuously breaching their airspace and national waters. At least one incident will have casualties.
2. French election.One of two:
a) Marine Le Pen narrowly win presidential election in France, promising to end the "Islamic threat" and referendum on leaving EU.
b) The conservative candidate wins, but it happens by running a campaign that is virtually identical to Marine Le Pens.
3. Renzi to loose referendum for reform in Italy
The Italian PM, Matteo Renzi, is attempting to reform Italian politics. While the mertis of the referendum can be debated, Renzi has staked his political future on them. If he resigns and another general election is called (leading to the 64th government in 71 years for Italy) that sets up the prospect for the populist Five Star Movement to govern.
4. Germany will remain a Liberal Democracy
France will swing right, Austria might vote for far-right head of state, the Dutch Freedom Party could be part of the the next goverment in Holland but Germany's election will see Liberal values being promoted. With a strong Green Party there as well, Climate Change could be a large issue as well.