NFL 2016: Week 2

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In order to raise the $1500 required for a PFF Premium Stats subscription, I will now be running paid advertisements at the top of these threads.

I'm not sure if it violates the site’s rules to advertise in threads. The new code of conduct sticky posts were too long, so I didn’t read them.

I will be running an ad at the top of each thread for the duration of the season. Any surplus ad revenue will go towards beach house mortgage payments future year subscriptions to PFF.

* Two WRs not getting out of bounds with the clock running at the end of the game (Detroit’s Marvin Jones, Dallas’s Terrance Williams).

* Dallas really simplified the offense for Dak Prescott.

* Todd Gurley ran for 52 yards after contact. He rushed for only 47 yards from scrimmage.

* Washington spent big money to get Josh Norman and then kept him on the opposite side of the field from Antonio Brown most of the game.

* Bill Belichick preaching the gospel of the mortar.

* Some of my hashtags are looking on point after one week:
#RevisPeninsula: AJ Green was targeted against Revis 10 times, all 10 of which Green turned into receptions, for 152 yards and 1 TD. The island has come crashing back into the main continent.
#NobodyBlocksInLA: Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner (giving me Marcus Stroud & John Henderson flashbacks) and the rest of the Niners d-line rotation tore the LA line to shreds. The defense only managed 2 sacks, though LA throwing nothing but 3 yard hooks had something to do with that.
#FireMularkey: Well Gumbie was right that they were going to throw. But you know, maybe building a roster for ‘70s smash-mouth football and then throwing it 41 times instead isn’t the best idea.

A few didn’t work out quite so well yet:
#StealTheShow: Jacksonville was so close to knocking off one of the league’s elite teams in week 1. Most encouragingly, it was a game-long slugfest of equally performing teams, not one of those games where the surprise team built a big lead and then just held on for dear life. A disappointing “L” but one Gus Bradley should be able to build on.
#NotTheFCS: Well OK, with week 1 against Cleveland, I should have seen this coming. Their last-place DVOA performance was about as FCS as NFL teams come, but credit where it’s due: Certis didn’t play like a QB that was over his head.
#MortarKickoffs: Not a one by Aguayo! We waited all offseason! Tampa never fails to disappoint.

Pick ‘Ems

I know picks. I have the best picks.

GWJ pickers pretty handily stomped the oddsmakers this week.

Kansas City at Houston: Kansas City is 1-0, and it only took the greatest comeback in team history to get there. Jamaal Charles will likely miss another game, though Spencer Ware held things down nicely in Charles’ absence (though now Ware is slightly limited with a toe injury). Houston rode to 1-0 on the back of the team’s new Osweiler-to-Fuller hookup, along with Lamar Miller cracking 100 yards, which he only managed to do 3 times last year in Miami. I’m taking Kansas City but I’m not loving the pick.

Tampa Bay at Arizona: Oh, I get it. Tampa kept the mortar kickoff under wraps because they knew they could beat Atlanta and didn’t want to put it on film for Arizona! Well, as we saw in the link above, the Patriots already showed Arizona what a mortar kickoff can do. I’d like to pick Tampa, but I am now a skeptic, until I actually see the glory of an Aguayo mortar blast. Arizona.

Jacksonville at San Diego: I saw a rumor from an unnamed Jaguars employee that Dave Caldwell mentioned at a team meeting that they sent 23 plays to the league office from week 1’s game, and that 16 of them came back as missed calls. I do know that Green Bay hugged Allen Robinson so much that he probably got in trouble with his wife that night. But nevermind that. The officials merely delayed BORTLESMANIA a week. This is the week that it begins. Jacksonville.

Green Bay at Minnesota: Green Bay probably won’t need to employ the hugging technique here, as the Vikings offense looked stuck in the mud against Tennessee, mustering only a few field goals (when Blair Walsh decided to make them) while defensive touchdowns carried the day. Green Bay wasted no time getting Jordy Nelson back involved in the offense with 9 targets, and FRESNO STATE’S Davante Adams had the catch of the week. And yet, this game only has a 2.5 point spread. Green Bay.

Philadelphia at Chicago: Chicago pretty much looked like the 6-10 team they were a year ago last week at Houston. The defense was average and the offense was near the bottom of the pack. A nice stepping stone matchup for Carson Wentz, coming off the win over the Browns. One snag for Wentz: TE Zach Ertz, who Wentz targeted 7 times in week 1, is doubtful with a shoulder injury. At least he still has FRESNO STATE’S Ryan Mathews to hand off to 20+ times still. You know what, f*ck it. Philadelphia. I’m on Team Wentz until he shows me a reason not to.

Make your Week 2 picks now!
and for the love of god, don’t copy-paste them here

Week 1 Results
*Legion*: 5-0
ballnchained: 5-0
UpToIsomorphism: 5-0
Certis: 4-1
Bighoppa: 4-1
Rat Boy: 4-1
MoonDragon: 4-1
jonfentyler: 4-1
onewild: 4-1
Vector: 4-1
Jowner: 4-1
Zaque: 4-1
Abu5217: 3-2
Bubs14: 3-2
LeapingGnome: 3-2
tboon: 3-2
oldmanscene24: 3-2
MilkmanDanimal: 3-2
Jayhawker: 3-2
Torq: 3-2
Stele: 3-2
Infyrnos: 3-2
Paleocon: 3-2
karmajay: 3-2
TheGameGuru: 3-2
Oddsmakers: 2-3
iaintgotnopants: 2-3
Kush15: 2-3
Top_Shelf: 2-3
cube: 2-3
garion333: 2-3
EvilDead: 2-3
PorkSmoothie89: 2-3
Minase: 1-4

#RevisPeninsula: AJ Green was targeted against Revis 10 times, all 10 of which Green turned into receptions, for 152 yards and 1 TD. The island has come crashing back into the main continent.

woof, not a good week 1 for me after finishing so high last year. No more contrarian plays for this guy.

Just came across this gif. I love it:

IMAGE(http://images.footballguys.com/Dropbox/Random%20Shots%20-%20Shared/14-4-CLE-fans.gif)

And now this!

IMAGE(http://images.footballguys.com/Dropbox/Random%20Shots%20-%20Shared/LA.rams.not.scored.1994.png)

3-2?

So begins trying to stay on the right side of .500.

WHAT THE HELL SOUTH PARK?

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/NfKgRjE.jpg)

Kansas City at Houston: Between Will Fuller’s drops and Brock Lobsterweiler’s accuracy issues, I have to imagine Houston is going to be a massive boom-or-bust offense. KC’s defense should be a much larger challenge than San Diego, and Houston didn’t exactly look dominant against what appears to be a pretty awful Bears team. KC wins, with Alex Smith putting up an impressive 20/25 statline. For 26 yards.

Tampa Bay at Arizona: Kool-Aid can be tasty. I am not drinking it. The one thing Winston really had problems with last year was the deep ball; he was really surprisingly accurate out to 20 yards or so, but he missed bomb after bomb, and missed them badly. This past Sunday? Not so much. All this game proved is that when Winston gets protection from a terrible pass rush and has loads of time to make his throws, he’s really good. Something tells me this Sunday is going to be a bit more challenging. I’m treating this like a preseason game in my head; I’m just hoping for no injuries. Also, I’ve officially decided to pull for Arizona for a Super Bowl this year, because I want Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald to get rings. So, you know, it’s win-win for me. Also, the MORTAR KICKS are just too dangerous. They can’t be unleashed.

Jacksonville at San Diego: Hey, Jacksonville looked good throwing the ball. San Diego has Travis Benjamin, who would be really, really good with Keenan Allen taking some pressure off. I’m of the opinion that partway through the season San Diego announces they’re going to L.A., and the season becomes an epic dumpster fire. Here’s hoping Jacksonville can actually average a whole two yards rushing this week.

Green Bay at Minnesota: Come, children, and let me sing to you the lamentations of the Vikings fans. Tennessee, they of the really bad defense, shut down Peterson and forced Shaun Hill to win the game. Which he failed to do. Thanks, defense! Maybe Minnesota’s defense does something exciting again, but I get the feeling the first big game in Minnesota’s new stadium is not going to go so well. Also, I have a friend who’s a Packers fan, and he immediately begins swearing every time he hears Davante Adams’ name, because Adams apparently forgot to bring his thumbs with him when he left Fresno. Maybe find someone else from your school to be proud of? Those sorts of loyalties where you proclaim your love of players because they attended your school are silly. Also, how about that David Johnson kid, eh?

Philadelphia at Chicago: I would make a “Carson Wentz has always been good against FCS defenses” joke, but I’m thinking Cleveland might be an insult to the FCS here. I kept flipping to that game, but RGIII vs. Wentz was too painful. Wentz was really good without pressure, not so good with. I think there’s lots of pressure, and Philly gets back to their usual stance of self-loathing.

That sure is a short list of participants, usually much better at season start isn't it? Also, I'm taking the Bucs, so go ahead and pick Arizona folks, the Bucs always do the opposite of my pick...

*Legion* wrote:

*snip* Gumbie was right *snip*

Also my picks aren't on the big list from week 1.

Gumbie wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

*snip* Gumbie was right *snip*

Also my picks aren't on the big list from week 1. :(

The Lord *Almighty* wrote:

please do not post your picks in this thread unless you have something to say about your picks

Probably out of spite.

Gumbie wrote:

Also my picks aren't on the big list from week 1. :(

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/mOWPFa2.png)

irb(main):001:0> u = User.find_by(gwj_username: "Gumbie")
=> # < User id: 10, gwj_username: "Gumbie", (...) last_sign_in_at: "2015-10-30 13:10:12" >

You gotta use the site to be counted.

5-0!!!

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/nKNYB498qPT3y/giphy.gif)

IMAGE(https://67.media.tumblr.com/e6224dd04adac6aeea2f8ca2ae73cc2d/tumblr_inline_nggbc5NlTA1t3upa6.gif)

IMAGE(https://consequenceofsound.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/anigif_enhanced-buzz-32461-1386966307-0.gif?w=806)

Spoiler:

Looking forward to regression!

Nevada tourism committee recommends putting up $750 million for a Raiders stadium in Las Vegas. Yes, it's still a ways to go, but there's momentum towards this than a new stadium anywhere in California.

I wish I saw this article earlier, as I would have made it part of the top post, because it speaks to something I've been thinking about for a bit. But I'll cover it here now:

The NFL's Dink and Dunk Reality

The gist of the article is that week 1 saw a staggering increase in QBs playing short-pass dink-and-dunk football, and posits that it may be a trend and not merely an aberration.

The article has this image of a 49ers defensive alignment against the Rams:

IMAGE(https://d262ilb51hltx0.cloudfront.net/max/800/1*oahzB1KzMtGuopwfpCn6KQ.png)

That isn’t from some third-and-inches situation. It comes on a first-and-10 in the third quarter, and 10 — count ’em, 10 — 49ers are standing within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage. The reason Case Keenum and Los Angeles don’t stretch the field is because they can’t, and opposing defenses are well aware of that.

What they don't talk about is the interesting part to me: personnel. The 49ers "base" D against Los Angeles was almost a 4 safety defense. It was 3 true safeties (Antoine Bethea, Jaquiski Tartt, and Eric Reid) and safety-turned-cornerback Jimmie Ward out at right corner.

Consider the reasoning behind that kind of personnel group. It gives you a group heavy enough to stop the run, while still quick enough to turn upfield and run with receivers if you do try and go over the top. It clearly prioritizes stopping the run and short-and-horizontal passing game, but without compromising too much on dropping back if needed.

But lest you think this is just something a defense does against a Case Keenum type, let me show you what Aaron Rodgers was looking at against Jacksonville:

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/fd9jPfv.png)

Just like with the Niners shot from the article, this isn't a 3rd-and-inches, this is 1st and 10. The very first 1st and 10 for the Packers in the game. Rodgers saw this look all day long. And what he managed against these looks was a mere 199 yards passing, 5.9 per attempt, so it's not like he got this look and then shredded it.

Unlike the Niners, the Jags still had two true pure boundary cornerbacks (Davon House and Prince Amukamara), but of course their flexibility comes from S/CB hybrid Jalen Ramsey. The Jags were moderately successful defending the run with this personnel: GB averaged only 3.8 per carry as a team.

It went the other way too, as Green Bay played a bunch of 3 safety / 3 cornerback dime looks, with Micah Hyde and Damarious Randall as the additional safeties and corners, and the team's pass rushers dropping down to almost all of the d-line spots, leaving just one "base" lineman and one "base" linebacker on the field in their normal positions.

I think I may have to stop saying "nickel is the new base", because that appears to be too simplified. Defenses aren't just pulling a linebacker and putting their nickel corner on the field. They're playing 3 safeties, they're pulling defensive linemen out and dropping the pass rushers down to lineman spots. The 49ers DC is talking about lining up safety Eric Reid at defensive end. I don't really even know what to call these defenses. It makes me think of hockey, where the star sniper and the enforcing goon might both be "left wings", but that position name tells you nothing about what they do, only where they line up. Defensive positions may be becoming more along the lines of mere descriptions of spots on the field, and not definitions of a player and his role. If everything is hybrid, then isn't nothing hybrid anymore?

*Legion* wrote:
Gumbie wrote:

Also my picks aren't on the big list from week 1. :(

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/mOWPFa2.png)

irb(main):001:0> u = User.find_by(gwj_username: "Gumbie")
=> # < User id: 10, gwj_username: "Gumbie", (...) last_sign_in_at: "2015-10-30 13:10:12" >

You gotta use the site to be counted.

Oh yeah forgot about that...welp I'm out for the season lol.

Why do you keep posting pics of my little vibrating football game from when I was a kid?

Gumbie wrote:

Oh yeah forgot about that...welp I'm out for the season lol.

Well since you posted your picks, I'll retroactively add them into the system and your record in next week's thread will reflect them.

However, in exchange for this, you need to reply to this message proclaiming how great Bortles is and how BORTLESMANIA is going to sweep the nation. In your own words, and you need to be convincing.

*Legion* wrote:
Gumbie wrote:

Oh yeah forgot about that...welp I'm out for the season lol.

Well since you posted your picks, I'll retroactively add them into the system and your record in next week's thread will reflect them.

However, in exchange for this, you need to reply to this message proclaiming how great Bortles is and how BORTLESMANIA is going to sweep the nation. In your own words, and you need to be convincing.

whatcha gonna do, brother?

d'andre levy sat out of practice for the second day in a row today (quad). i am uncomfortably squirming

Revis Island appears to have sunk back into the ocean.

@philsimmsquotes is seriously the only way I make it through a TNF broadcast. I cannot listen to the brainless things he says without the affirmation that someone else is hearing it too and acknowledging the inanity.

Mortar kickoff gone bad.

No one was buying that hard count for a minute.

"Sure you're gonna let EJ Manuel take a snap on purpose..."

Defensive masterminds, those Ryan twins.

Is anyone else watching this game? Did everyone bail?

The stadium looks pretty empty.

Lots of other stuff going on in Buffalo on a Thursday night.

Right?
Rex Ryan is gonna get fired, isn't he? Over under on when it will happen? Week 6?

Phishposer wrote:

Right?
Rex Ryan is gonna get fired, isn't he? Over under on when it will happen? Week 6?

I have no idea. What day during the week do coach firings happen? Because if Friday's on the table, I might throw two bucks down for tomorrow.

I watched some of the 3rd quarter. Surprised that Fitzpatrick looked so good. People have been clamoring for Geno over this guy?

karmajay wrote:

I watched some of the 3rd quarter. Surprised that Fitzpatrick looked so good. People have been clamoring for Geno over this guy?

He's good till he throws that ill timed INT towards the end of the game.

Geno wouldn't even have them in the game, so ...

*Legion* wrote:

Is anyone else watching this game? Did everyone bail?

I can't believe anyone was watching.

Nothing like a Rob Ryan defense to make Ryan Fitzpatrick look like Peyton Manning in his prime.

*Legion* wrote:

However, in exchange for this, you need to reply to this message proclaiming how great Bortles is and how BORTLESMANIA is going to sweep the nation. In your own words, and you need to be convincing.

Gumbie wrote:

welp I'm out for the season lol.

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