Brexit (June 23rd)

This sounds bad to me, is this bad?

The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills becomes the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) department - led by Greg Clark, formerly communities and local government secretary

As a result, the Department for Energy and Climate Change has been scrapped, its brief folded into BEIS

I saw an opinion (i think it was the guardian liveblog) that said merging the climate change stuff into BEIS would actually be a better thing because it potentially gives climate change related legislation more teeth? But I have no idea if that's just wishful thinking or not.

Probably wishful thinking.

More worrying is fu**ing Leadsom as the Environment Secretary. Who knows what damage that fool will do. That and Jeremy "cockney Rhyming slang" Hunt who continues to exist because this is a cruel and vindictive universe.

Probably for the best that Climate Change stuff is taken away from Leadsome who is a climate change denier.

Jolly Bill wrote:

This sounds bad to me, is this bad?

The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills becomes the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) department - led by Greg Clark, formerly communities and local government secretary

As a result, the Department for Energy and Climate Change has been scrapped, its brief folded into BEIS

Not to be confused with Clark Gregg and his Strategic Homeland Intervention, Enforcement and Logistics Division.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/8X3XQVO.jpg)

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/btcSj4g.gif)

pyxistyx wrote:

More worrying is fu**ing Leadsom as the Environment Secretary. Who knows what damage that fool will do.

Yes but Leadsom has to now workout farm subsidies for UK farmers post Brexit. That'll be fun

DanB wrote:

Amusing Brexit-so-far summary (somewhat lefty)

http://standardissuemagazine.com/in-...

Note that the URL contains a prohibited word, so it'll 404 when you open it. You'll have to edit the asterisk out and reload.

Bagehot offers some sober analysis. I'm not sure I share Bagehot's pessimism but he or she have proven to be a right more often than wrong. We'll see, I suppose.

Seems fairly salient. I skimmed the David Davis negotiation strategy/aims doc the other day and has also come to the conclusion that it was wildly and unrealistically optimistic.

Everything you need to know about Theresa May’s Brexit nightmare in five minutes

This is a terrifyingly learned analysis of the situation. TL;DR: Brexit is not going to work, she needs to kick it into the longest of long grass.

Yup. I suspect that non-Brexit Brexit also maintains a large probability of Scotland leaving

Theresa May suggests Brexit delay as she says no Article 50 until Scotland gives go-ahead

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...

Seems canny, putting UK unity over Brexit referendum result.

MrDeVil909 wrote:

Theresa May suggests Brexit delay as she says no Article 50 until Scotland gives go-ahead

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...

Seems canny, putting UK unity over Brexit referendum result.

That's clever.

Edit: Canny, tricky, cunning... Not sure what the UK equivalent is of the American usage of the word "clever".

Until Scotland gives go-ahead? So if they never do that?
Is that really supposed to be her plan?

EU really need to pressure them a bit. Perpetual uncertainty is just as bad as brexit.

What they have agreed is that article 50 will not be invoked until the Scottish parliament agrees with the terms of the (future) article 50 negotiations. That is Scotland and Westminster need to negotiate what the UK's article 50 negotiating position will be before article 50 is invoked. The press are reporting this as though Scotland needs to give it's blessing but that is not what is happening.

It's certainly a delaying tactic but I'm kind of surprised Sturgeon wouldn't just tell May that Scotland wants a 2nd referendum and that Scottish EU membership should be part of the UK's article 50 negotiating platform. What else does Scotland want out of this?

I doubt anyone is going to reveal their hand at this stage. Well, the remaining EU members will but they hold the whip hand. May is meeting Merkel on Wednesday. I suspect we'll have another watered down statement from both. A holding position.

I'd love for entertainment purposes if Merkel gave statement that put pressure on the UK to trigger article 50 but I suspect she'll shy away from that.

In other news, it appear that the Minister for Brexit, David Davis, doesn't quite have the grasp of the details that he may think he has.

One of our really challenging issues to deal with will be the internal border we have with southern Ireland, and we're not going to go about creating other internal borders inside the United Kingdom.

There is a strain of Tory (and many English) who still view Ireland as part of the UK. Whatever about a punter from the street, for a senior government Minister to have such a poor grasp of the political landscape the Island's he lives on it's unforgivable.

I suspect (hope?) May is giving these individuals plenty of rope.

Axon wrote:

I'd love for entertainment purposes if Merkel gave statement that put pressure on the UK to trigger article 50 but I suspect she'll shy away from that.

Merkel did initially come out on the side of "lets not rush in to things" before her arm was twisted by the rest of the EU. I suspect she'll happily play along with whatever reasonable delaying tactic is presented

Yes, delay will be the tactic from here on out. Another avenue opening up is deciding who exactly has the power to invoke Article 50. I'm being see a clear path as this being decided at the next general election.

Axon wrote:

Yes, delay will be the tactic from here on out. Another avenue opening up is deciding who exactly has the power to invoke Article 50. I'm being see a clear path as this being decided at the next general election.

My friend is a constitutional lawyer in the UK and he wrote this
https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016...

tl;dr: no fresh legislation is needed, Executive discretion (i.e the PM's authority to trigger article 50) is already encoded in law via the European Union (Amendment) Act 2008. The cabinet is free, of course, to hold as many parliamentary debates as it wants but it doesn't require anything legislative from parliament

Fun little aside to this story for British citizens / business owners:

One way to get around Brexit: Become an e-resident of Estonia

Edit: Come for the article on EU residency shenanigans, stay for the completely unrelated picture of snow kayaking that accompanies the article.

Edit edit: Stay extra long for the terrible pun that captions said photo. It just keeps on giving.

DanB wrote:
Axon wrote:

Yes, delay will be the tactic from here on out. Another avenue opening up is deciding who exactly has the power to invoke Article 50. I'm being see a clear path as this being decided at the next general election.

My friend is a constitutional lawyer in the UK and he wrote this
https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016...

tl;dr: no fresh legislation is needed, Executive discretion (i.e the PM's authority to trigger article 50) is already encoded in law via the European Union (Amendment) Act 2008. The cabinet is free, of course, to hold as many parliamentary debates as it wants but it doesn't require anything legislative from parliament

Heh heh.

His other argument that isn't in that piece is that this is principally a political issue and we shouldn't/can't look to the law to tells us what to do (broadly that the law follows political will not the other way round). Which is why he views legal challenges to article 50 as moot. But at the same time if the sitting gov't decides that they need to pass new legislation to act then that is parliament/the cabinet's prerogative too.

Of course that's his legal opinion and I'm sure other's disagree, that with it being an opinion and all.

The point about using the law the thwart democracy is valid. In any event, I suspect it may yet become a general election issue. There remains no solution that solves the City of London problem. Yes, the UK should not be so imbalanced economically but it is. Throw in a country that is running deficits with a large debt pile and you just can't take a shock like that.

I really can't see any responsible politician voting for such a scenario and I genuinely believe there is a majority of those in Parliament regardless of party or ideology. At least I hope there is.

Unsurprisingly, Merkel agrees with May's holding pattern. A solid kick to touch by both leader. As the article points out, France is the friction. Paris, by all accounts, wants the City of London's services.

Seems much more likely it would move to Germany before France.

Shadout wrote:

Seems much more likely it would move to Germany before France.

I think that there would be enough support from other countries that didn't want Germany's influence to get that additional boost that France would have a good shot at it.

Yeah, I thought Frankfurt was the front runner but apparently Paris is apparently turning heads. If you had a choice where would you like to work?

Edit: Yep, Holllande is staking out a position. So, what do you think Hollande will give for relenting on free movement?

Axon wrote:

So, what do you think Hollande will give for relenting on free movement?

I truly believe this will not/can not happen. Article 50 negotiations have to happen by total consensus on the EU side. Any deal that gives free trade without free movement will be vetoed by one of the states, especially the E.European states who somewhat rely on free movement to keep their unemployment numbers sane. Plus it would create a diplomatic quagmire with Switzerland who want that very same deal.

And it would set precedent for member states to re-negotiate their access to the common market AND would give yet more ammunition for far right parties to agitate and make gains.

It would just be a terrible thing for the EU to offer or settle in negotiations.

Although I could imagine that in the meantime and away from the Brexit negotiations the EU might pass legislation that redefines the terms of free movement in the common market. Say, allowing states to restrict inward free movement when domestic unemployment rises past a certain threshold. That's the kind of thing that would protect free movement and at the same time address a lot of the working class angst around immigration.