2015/16 Soccer Thread

I've decided I'm hoping Portugal somehow find a way to win the tournament. Pepe's a huge miss though.

Godzilla Blitz wrote:

Some of the findings are very insightful, others are kind of obvious (a balanced defense and offense is better than a one-dimensional approach), but others I've found lacking. For example, they talk about the value of a goal scorer being connected to the score when he gets a particular goal. In effect, a goal scored in a 0-0 tie is worth more than a goal scored when you are leading 4-0. I get this, sure, but they don't mention the obvious extension of this, that if you play for a strong team you are going to have less opportunity to score goals in a 0-0 situation because other players on your team are scoring goals before you can, and also that you have less time available when the score of the game is still close.

On the whole, though, thumbs up so far.

Yeah, that's kind of I was getting at with the "scores when they want" bit. Not only does the quality of the team affect the type of scorelines a player is playing in, I'm not aware of any evidence that an ability to score when the game is close is anything more than 1) playing when the score is close 2) being a goal-scorer in general and 3) opportunities to score when close. Scoring when the game is close is more valuable than a blowout but it doesn't seem to be a skill in any sport I've followed.

It's still a decent book though.

No Pepe is huge, this game just depends on whether Bale or Ronaldo decides to turn up.

Judging by the rest of the tournament, Ronaldo is probably due...

I missed the first half of the Portugal Wales game, but the announcers make it sound like I missed nothing. Anyone watching?

Godzilla Blitz wrote:

I missed the first half of the Portugal Wales game, but the announcers make it sound like I missed nothing. Anyone watching?

Very conservative play from both sides in the first half. Ref is hardly calling any fouls, including one he missed inside the box.

Congrats, slazev.

Fedaykin98 wrote:

Congrats, slazev.

Thanks!
Not a draw! I don't think we have a chance in the final, but this is great!
Thumbs up for Danilo who replaced William, Bruno Alves for not getting a red card, Adrien for being a midfield boss and Ronaldo for deciding to turn up.
Congrats to Wales for a great run and I'm sorry for their exit. I had my mind set in supporting them in the final.

You've always got a chance in the final, it's a one off game! And, to be honest, people have been going on about Portugal being terrible all tournament and all of a sudden they're in the final, not sure they're that bad! Find it a bit odd in the same season Leicester got so much praise, Portugal get slated.

You could make the argument that Portugal have Ronaldo, but no Mahrez in that Leicester team and they wouldn't have gotten anywhere near the top 4.

I can't speak for everybody else, but I slate Portugal because Ronaldo was a dick to the Icelandic team.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Clusks wrote:

You've always got a chance in the final, it's a one off game! And, to be honest, people have been going on about Portugal being terrible all tournament and all of a sudden they're in the final, not sure they're that bad! Find it a bit odd in the same season Leicester got so much praise, Portugal get slated.

You could make the argument that Portugal have Ronaldo, but no Mahrez in that Leicester team and they wouldn't have gotten anywhere near the top 4.

Besides the Hungary game where Nani helped gift them 2 goals Portugal has been playing pretty great defense. Obvious counter argument to that is who have they really faced to challenge them?

People have been complaining about the quality because I think previous teams had Deco/Rui Costa/Figo and now Ronaldo so they expect some master class in passing. Sorry, pragmatic coach and I'm loving it.

Danilo > Carvalho. If they play both in the final I wouldn't mind.

Might prefer Germany if the injuries pile up. Ozil pull up with a niggle maybe?

juv3nal wrote:

I can't speak for everybody else, but I slate Portugal because Ronaldo was a dick to the Icelandic team.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm with you there.

Sad to see Wales go out that way. It shows how important Ramsey is.

Only the French or Germans can save us from bloody Ronaldo winning an international tournment. Saying that, I doubt the winner of that game will be having too many sleepness nights about playing Portugal.

onewild wrote:

Only the French or Germans can save us from bloody Ronaldo winning an international tournment. Saying that, I doubt the winner of that game will be having too many sleepness nights about playing Portugal.

Yeah, but then again, I don't think England or Belgium thought much of playing the teams they lost too either. Not having a sleepness night can be an issue if you just don't show up. I could totally see France not show up if they beat Germany tonight, sorta like what happened in the Ireland game.

Thought I'd take a moment to revisit my Euro 2016 predictions.

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/I4JCBuu.gif)

That's about right.

Dimmerswitch wrote:

Thought I'd take a moment to revisit my Euro 2016 predictions.

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/I4JCBuu.gif)

That's about right.

You..... Like.... Managed to get everything backwards.

Zaque wrote:
onewild wrote:

Only the French or Germans can save us from bloody Ronaldo winning an international tournment. Saying that, I doubt the winner of that game will be having too many sleepness nights about playing Portugal.

Yeah, but then again, I don't think England or Belgium thought much of playing the teams they lost too either. Not having a sleepness night can be an issue if you just don't show up. I could totally see France not show up if they beat Germany tonight, sorta like what happened in the Ireland game.

If its France I hope they come in extremely overconfident and the air quickly goes out of them. Its hard for me not to have hope vs France as Evra still starts for them.

Looking at the lineups today.... I have no idea who is going to win. Fingers crossed that theres an early goal though so maybe things get whacky. Maybe a down 2-0 comeback for someone!

Great first half.

Dunno about that PK. If that's a hand ball PK the ref pretty much has to call all shirt pulling also in the box also.

slazev wrote:

Winner: France (just going on historical data here)
Top Scorer: Benz... err... Giroud
Biggest Surprise: Croatia
Biggest Failure: Belgium

I don't think I'm doing too bad for now.

After a rocky start, Germany completely dominated France. That penalty really feels unfair, but such is life and football.

jowner wrote:

Great first half.

Dunno about that PK. If that's a hand ball PK the ref pretty much has to call all shirt pulling also in the box also.

It's not scandalous like Boateng's against Italy, but Schweinsteiger has no right to put his arm there.

Argh, France is through. Germany payed for a lack of accuracy.
Portugal's last win against France was in 1975. I can't bear to see another loss against these guys.

Early odds.

France 1.44 v Portugal 2.87

So you're saying there's a chance (decent one at that). Implies France to win around 70%.

So 1/3 times Portugal could win? Maybe Sunday

Shame Germany couldn't win. Oh well, go France! Sorry, don't like Portugal

Shadout wrote:

Shame Germany couldn't win. Oh well, go France! Sorry, don't like Portugal :)

Allez les bleus.

My favorite moment from today's BBC coverage:

Thierry Henry wrote:

France being ahead is more than fortunate. I was expecting Germany to dominate and they did.

It looked like we were going to have a go and then we sat back more and more and more.

I think it is a penalty.

Mark Carter wrote:

Henry thinks handball...hardly the man to be trusted on handling the ball.

These Germans, supposedly full of discipline, need to learn to head the ball without sticking their arms way up in the air! Two games in a row!

Fedaykin98 wrote:

These Germans, supposedly full of discipline, need to learn to head the ball without sticking their arms way up in the air! Two games in a row!

And veteran players were called for it to make matters worse! Tough loss to take but happy for France. They deserve some cheer given what the country went through the last few years.

whispa wrote:
Fedaykin98 wrote:

These Germans, supposedly full of discipline, need to learn to head the ball without sticking their arms way up in the air! Two games in a row!

And veteran players were called for it to make matters worse! Tough loss to take but happy for France. They deserve some cheer given what the country went through the last few years.

As Men in Blazers pointed out, the German veterans missed their penalties, as well. Curious.

Clusks wrote:

So, with the Euros on the horizon, why don't we all make some predictions:

Winner: Spain
Top scorer: De Bruyne
Biggest surprise: Austria
Biggest failure: Not too many, I don't think, but I don't think France will do that well

Whoops.

Messi is back.

slazev wrote:

Messi is back.

The FC Barcelona "show you've got Messi's back by tweeting a photo of your support" social media thing was amusing. It would be fun if Ronaldo and Messi basically switched public personas switch since apparently Ronaldo off pitch is Messi on-pitch and vice versa.

In Women's soccer news:

I guess the NWSL/USSF thought "it's grass, that'll do."

I watch the Houston Dash a lot (our NWSL team), and I am frequently amazed to see them playing at rec league fields - like tonight in Orlando. The Dash play in the same stadium as the Dynamo.

Barcelona have had a right Liverpool with this whole Messi support campaign.

Ouch, that doesn't look good for Ronaldo. Much as I dislike him, I hate to see people hurt like that.

Zaque wrote:

Ouch, that doesn't look good for Ronaldo. Much as I dislike him, I hate to see people hurt like that.

Yeah. I've gained a lot of respect for him this tournament. Hard to watch that. Terrible for the game.

I'm watching in a packed soccer pub sitting next to a French friend, so allez les bleus!