NFL 2016: Offseason: Draft

Hingle McKringleberry on the NFL Draft

Link not working so here:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=154...

double post for greatness

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

If we're going to talk QB panic, 2011 would appear to be king with the Locker-Gabbert-Ponder holy trinity coming off the board in the top 12.

Do you call that panic, though, or just bad evaluation? Ponder I will grant you, his number got called early. Gabbert and Locker seemed to have consensus grades in the ballparks they went.

Also I'd like to point out that Gabbert > Locker.

*Legion* wrote:
Abu5217 wrote:

While you occasionally say things that bother me (that's on me, not you), I commend you *Legion* for this writeup. Most people wouldn't take the time, and I appreciate the humor tucked in here and there.

I'm not sure how to respond to that... I'll go with, thank you.

You are welcome!

As to my weird statement, you don't always say the things I want to hear about my teams or players, so I get bothered. It's a silly fan thing, hence on me, not you. I guess it's also a compliment, since I obviously respect the stuff you write enough to have it bother me from time to time?

TL;DR - Don't try to figure out the things I say. Half the time they don't make sense to me either.

Abu5217 wrote:

As to my weird statement, you don't always say the things I want to hear about my teams or players, so I get bothered. It's a silly fan thing, hence on me, not you. I guess it's also a compliment, since I obviously respect the stuff you write enough to have it bother me from time to time?

Oohhhhh.... I get it. OK, that I understand.

*Legion* wrote:

Also I'd like to point out that Gabbert > Locker.

IMAGE(http://45.media.tumblr.com/01224bf4834e4020bc2e90ba763c9561/tumblr_ntg4u4PJyk1u38djvo1_250.gif)

Gumbie wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Also I'd like to point out that Gabbert > Locker.

IMAGE(http://45.media.tumblr.com/01224bf4834e4020bc2e90ba763c9561/tumblr_ntg4u4PJyk1u38djvo1_250.gif)

Well, one of them is (arguably) still in the league, and one isn't, so...

Abu5217 wrote:

Well, one of them is (arguably) still in the league, and one isn't, so...

Locker left the league by choice. He could have easily been a number 2 for a lot of teams and even a starter for a few teams this past season. So...

Edit: Not saying Locker is/was good (he isn't) but it's very debatable that Gabbert is better.

Heh, fights over who is less bad are fun.

I believe any and all arguments regarding whether Gabbert or Locker are better are inherently invalid, and people should immediately start arguing which of them was crappier.

*Legion* wrote:

This draft is weird.

* several thousand words follow *

Great work on this, Legion. I hadn't paid any attention to this year's draft until yesterday, largely because my 18 17-win team isn't going to draft until sometime Saturday afternoon, I think. (Also, too, the QB choices this year are underwhelming, which means there's no drama.) But now I've got something to read before the fun starts tomorrow night. Thanks for doing it.

P.S. I concur in concept with your Panthers pick. I have no idea who will be there at No. 31, and it's probably foolish to pick a specific player. But the Panthers usually go with best available (as opposed to position), and the draft is deep in D-linemen, so that makes a lot of sense for Carolina.

They need O-linemen and a CB, too, but there won't be first-round talent at either spot left that late on Thursday.

Gumbie wrote:
Abu5217 wrote:

Well, one of them is (arguably) still in the league, and one isn't, so...

Locker left the league by choice. He could have easily been a number 2 for a lot of teams and even a starter for a few teams this past season. So...

Edit: Not saying Locker is/was good (he isn't) but it's very debatable that Gabbert is better.

Don't get me wrong, I think that they are both terri-bad. I just wanted to rustle some Titan jimmies, that's all.

Oh, Enix, you are just the gift that keeps on giving this week, aren't you?

You know, the first round is weird this year, because the Patriots lost their first-round draft pick, meaning there's one less player being taken in that round, and . . .

Enix wrote:

P.S. I concur in concept with your Panthers pick. I have no idea who will be there at No. 31

#31?

IMAGE(http://i151.photobucket.com/albums/s149/MilkmanDanimal/197-1.gif)

Preds game 7 tonight, draft tomorrow night, and my wife's birthday is tomorrow.

IMAGE(http://gifrific.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/coffee-sylvester-cat.gif)

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

#31?

Y'know, MMD, I thought of you when I posted that. Believe it or not, according to the NFL.com draft tracker, the Panthers will have the 31st pick of the first round and the 30th overall pick.

NFL math!

Which sort of reminds me of the 73rd pick in the 2013 draft ...

IMAGE(http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/229/files/2013/12/glennon-whoops.gif)

Gumbie wrote:

IMAGE(http://gifrific.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/coffee-sylvester-cat.gif)

Man, cartoons used to be really f*cked up.

Gumbie wrote:

Edit: Not saying Locker is/was good (he isn't) but it's very debatable that Gabbert is better.

Before 2015, I would agree. Gabbert's 2015 blew all of Locker's and Gabbert's pre-2015 seasons out of the water.

Granted, by "blown out of the water", I mean it was competent, decent, uninpsiring. But better Captain Checkdown with a high completion percentage than Locker's spraying passes all over the field. Locker never broke 200 yards per game average in any season, and neither did Gabbert before last year. But Gabbert averaged 253.9 last year. Big jump in production.

Enix wrote:

Thanks for doing it.

You're consistently the person who says these nice things to me, unlike the rest of these assholes.

So thank you sir, I appreciate it.

*Legion* wrote:

2016 MOCK DRAFT

I'd like to hear what more trades you think will happen in the first round are. I'd personally be surprised if Cleveland doesn't trade down again from #8. I could easily see Miami trading to that spot to pick up Ezekiel Elliot before the Giants can grab him. I'd also agree with your Cleveland trading back into the first round but would see the more likely team being Washington as they are looking for DL depth and could still get a solid lineman 10 picks later. I think Houston stays put and takes one of the top WRs to put opposite Hopkins.

I link to you the NFL.com mock draft page. You have probably seen it. For your amusement, please look again, specifically at Lance Zierlein's in the right-most column.

Spoiler:

IMAGE(http://i151.photobucket.com/albums/s149/MilkmanDanimal/ElliottSeriouslyWTF.jpg)

WTF?

ukickmydog wrote:

I'd like to hear what more trades you think will happen in the first round are.

That's a good question. I'm undecided on if I think that the trade market is going to be pretty lean, given the whole "giant 2nd round" thing near the top of the draft, or if that's going to result in even more active trading, as teams seem to have diverging opinions on players, and some may be grading certain guys much more highly than others.

I think Jacksonville jumping from #5 to #3 is realistic. The staff is in a position where they feel like they need to make bold moves for immediate contributors, and they see Ramsey as that kind of guy. I'm not certain San Diego is 100% on board with moving down just yet, though.

Miami trading up for Elliott seems a common one, and that makes more sense to me now that I've been reading today that Chicago apparently is very bullish on Elliott. That makes him falling to #13 like in my mock perhaps less likely.

I can't see Dallas taking Elliott at #4, but they could trade down to a number of spots between where they're at and the Bears and Dolphins. San Francisco apparently "desperately covets Buckner", a report coming from Tony Pauline, who is more credible than the average rumormonger. Cleveland could also move back up from #8 to #4, and get to pick almost anyone that they could have been considering at #2, while still keeping a lot of their profits from the trade-down. That would be a Moneyball sort of move.

I do think Houston could trade back, pick #22 jokes aside, depending on how the draft unfolds in front of them, and what their grades on the various WRs are. If they really want speed and like Will Fuller, for example, they could slide down from #22 and target him somewhere a bit more appropriate.

I can see Washington moving off of pick #21, as Reggie Ragland is a good player but not someone teams are necessarily falling in love with. Based on his time as 49ers GM, though, Scot McCloughan seems more like a trade-up sort of guy than a trade-down one. (Or trade future picks - he traded SF's 2008 1st rounder and a 2007 4th rounder for New England's 2007 1st rounder to draft Joe Staley). If they do like Ragland, though, there's a good chance he's still available further down in round 1, so they could make a small hop down and pick up another selection later in the draft.

I think the 49ers trading Kaepernick is on the table, which puts a trade with one of the other QB-needing teams (Jets, Broncos) on the table. Though it may not be as foregone as previously stated... apparently the 49ers beat writer says he hears Kaepernick "kinda digs Kelly", which I could believe, given that Kelly has no connection with Kaepernick's 2015 nightmare season. Also, the 49ers already have 12 picks in this draft. They don't need more late-round picks, so unless someone comes to the table with an early pick, or will at least throw them a high pick in 2017, I don't necessarily see it.

The Eagles and Sam Bradford is interesting. Bradford wants to be moved, he's mad. The Eagles are on the hook for $11 mil guaranteed, which would seem to make them less inclined to move him, but it would also make him more attractive for suitors, who would not have to pay that portion of his deal. I do think Pederson would be just fine playing Chase Daniel to start before Wentz is ready - Daniel has no bigger fan than Pederson, and Daniel comes in knowing Pederson's offense. You could almost argue Daniel gives the team a better chance early on than Bradford would. Where does Bradford land though? He apparently doesn't want to go to SF because of Chip Kelly, and the feeling appears to be mutual. Denver seems a legitimate chance, especially since Bradford's 2015 number (for them) would be the $7 million that they tried to get Kaepernick to agree to.

My gut says Bradford gets moved, Kaepernick doesn't, and a few 1st round teams make some small moves up and down the board, but that there aren't any blockbuster deals that include more than a one (net) extra pick.

I could see a lot of teams wanting to trade down from the 20s and pick up extra picks, but it's harder to find the scenarios where someone else is trading up. Paxton Lynch could be a wildcard there, but beyond him (or if he does go earlier), I dunno. That's where widely varying draft grades from team to team could manufacture some drama. I see a TON of rumors and reports that say, "A handful of teams think Player X is being undervalued", with Player X being one of those "extended 2nd round" talents. Those could be the surprise players that someone moves for.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

I link to you the NFL.com mock draft page. You have probably seen it. For your amusement, please look again, specifically at Lance Zierlein's in the right-most column.

Spoiler:

IMAGE(http://i151.photobucket.com/albums/s149/MilkmanDanimal/ElliottSeriouslyWTF.jpg)

WTF?

I see that from one perspective. You're sitting there at pick #9, and the elite guys all went in the top 7 or 8. Who has the highest grade left? I could see teams saying that it's Elliott. Imagine in my mock if the Browns don't reach for Floyd, but take Stanley instead. So there's no Bosa, and both the top tackles are gone. Who is the guy that's actually #9 pick value at #9?

If that were to happen, Tampa should be on the phone with both Chicago and Miami to see who wants Elliott more. But I gather that that NFL.com mock doesn't allow trades.

*Legion* wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

I link to you the NFL.com mock draft page. You have probably seen it. For your amusement, please look again, specifically at Lance Zierlein's in the right-most column.

Spoiler:

IMAGE(http://i151.photobucket.com/albums/s149/MilkmanDanimal/ElliottSeriouslyWTF.jpg)

WTF?

I see that from one perspective. You're sitting there at pick #9, and the elite guys all went in the top 7 or 8. Who has the highest grade left? I could see teams saying that it's Elliott. Imagine in my mock if the Browns don't reach for Floyd, but take Stanley instead. So there's no Bosa, and both the top tackles are gone. Who is the guy that's actually #9 pick value at #9?

If that were to happen, Tampa should be on the phone with both Chicago and Miami to see who wants Elliott more. But I gather that that NFL.com mock doesn't allow trades.

I'm very much of a BPA person when it comes to the draft, but picking Elliott is somewhere between "head injury" and "serious head injury". Martin was one of the best backs in the league last year, and the only pick that makes less sense is QB, as you could make a legitimate argument for every other position other than those two.

In your above scenario (which I'm pretty much expecting), Tampa winds up with a second-tier DE or Vernon Smurfgreaves III, because at least they can help. Mocking a back to Tampa is just nutsballs.

But, yes, in that scenario, hopefully Chicago or Miami get in a bidding war.

Maybe they thought Carolina had the right idea all along. More backs!

Bill Connelly article on all the QB's in the draft

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foot...

Bill Connelly wrote:

So, are there elite quarterbacks in this draft? Is reported favorite Jared Goff or Carson Wentz worth not only a top pick, but also the value it took to trade up? (Not only did the Eagles trade away potential depth, they did so after shelling out a ton of cap space on Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel recently.)

My gut response: no way in hell. Not even close. The Rams and Eagles made transparently idiotic moves. But that's my gut. It's wrong a lot.

Goff was able to get the ball downfield while taking few sacks. That's good. The main red flag for him is that ... shouldn't the potential No. 1 pick check more boxes than this? He's lanky, his Combine stats and completion rate were okay, he threw a few too many picks and he offers nothing from a rushing standpoint. Is that a guy you want to trade away your draft for?

Let's put it another way. Here's what Andrew Luck's radar would look like were he a member of the 2016 draft class. Luck was unanimously regarded as an elite pro prospect, and if the Rams or anyone else would have traded a booty of draft picks for the chance to draft Luck, a lot of people would have considered it a justifiable move.

IMAGE(https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6396699/GoffLuck.0.png)

Also thanks Legion for all the thought and work you put into these threads. I give you a lot of sh*t but I do love reading your stuff.

The trade I keep hearing about is the Titans trading to get back up to #5 to take Tunsil if the Chargers don't at #3.

I think the trade activity is all waiting on SD.

Commercial that's going to air tonight during the draft.

I'm thinking the Chargers take Ramsey, which screws over the Cowboys and then Jerry panics and overrides his personnel guys that want Bosa or Buckner to take Elliott. With Elliott off the board, the rest of the top 10 becomes dull with no trades.

ukickmydog wrote:

I'm thinking the Chargers take Ramsey, which screws over the Cowboys and then Jerry panics and overrides his personnel guys that want Bosa or Buckner to take Elliott. With Elliott off the board, the rest of the top 10 becomes dull with no trades.

This is pretty much my nightmare. The fact that it's a probable outcome doesn't help.

I kinda sad Titans won't have a shot at Ramsey. He really wanted to play for this hometown team.