It's that magical time of year once again! I figure if I keep predicting games I want will be announced eventually they'll be made manifest. So THIS is the year for Red Dead Redemption 2. Catch the fever! There's some interesting wrinkles in 2016 thanks to rumors of Nintendo's next console and the many questions surrounding the fate of VR. Will this finally be the year? It's time to make your predictions!
It's also time to eat some crow. Make sure you revisit 2015's thread and see how you did!
Shawn Andrich
Microsoft
- $50 price drop as they continue to chase marketshare
- Hololens will remain an R&D project with no consumer model in sight. 3K dev kit? Yeesh.
Sony
- No price drop this year
- Morpheous will launch this Fall for $499.
Nintendo NX
- Vague announcement in Spring. Full announcement at E3. Launch in Fall.
- NX will feature a controller that doubles as a mobile touch screen gaming device, blurring the lines between living room and on the go platform. Kind of a REALLY fancy Dreamcast controller. The logical evolution of the Wii-U gamepad.
- System will not be backward compatible and will focus on growing a new library of games suitable for touch screen gaming on the go and big ticket games. There will be regular controller support.
- New Zelda will launch for Wii U and the NX with a few extra features
VR Predictions
- Oculus Rift launches and will remain difficult to buy until the Fall due to stock shortages. It will not hurt VR’s case, people will be excited about VR in general but the door will be wide open for competition.
- The touch controllers will launch in the Fall but few games will support them. They will be bundled with the 2.0 version of the Rift in 2017.
- The HTC Vive VR headset kit will cost $699 with controller set. It will be easier to purchase than the Oculus and Valve will announce/launch a new game with it. It won’t be Half-Life 3.
Star Citizen
- Squadron 42 will launch in the Spring as Episodes and finally bring Star Citizen to a feeling of being an actual game. By the end of the year Star Citizen will be a thing that resembles the original pitch. There will be no real MMO style components.
General Predictions
- Red Dead Redemption 2 THIS IS THE YEAR
- An “indie” game will outsell Madden this year.
- Everquest Next will be cancelled
- Minecraft 2 will be announced. f*ck you, that’s why.
- Total War: Warhammer will suck. Not enough depth to really feel like a Total War Game.
- Mobile games will continue to pander to the easy money, cementing the player gap between “hard-core” gamers and phone gamers.
Chris "C" Cesarano
- The Nintendo NX, at least the home console variant, will not release in 2016 (a common one for the GWJ Nintendo fanbase)
- Final Fantasy XV will be a long game, but the world will actually be rather small. We'll be lucky if it spans an entire continent.
- The Occulus Rift will commercially go the way of the OUYA, with the Playstation VR perhaps being the best chance of the experience going mainstream (might be more of a 2017 prediction)
- Nintendo will announce a new Metroid game for NX, but it will somehow still be a disappointment to fans.
- Capcom continues to piss me off by not localizing Dragon's Dogma Online in the West.
Colleen "momgamer" Hannon
- The Steam console that just came out will be a hit with early adopters & Gabe Newell fanboys but be a quiet build with the rest of the audience. Outside that core, the concept of streaming to another device is still in it's early stages, and that's going to be a confusing sell.
- Someone at Square Enix realized that a numbering system that lets you play the games in order is a good thing, and we get Kingdom Hearts 2.8, to slide in between the already released 2.5 and the upcoming Kingdom Hearts 3. That doesn't mean their development isn't still a little messy, so I predict that both games will slip their dates around and may not actually release in that order.
- There will be even more Star Wars games released, because that's how the juggernaut rolls. But none of them will be a new Star Wars: X-wing or Star Wars: Tie Fighter, so the re-releases out on GoG will have to sustain us.
- Beyond Good and Evil 2 slipped out of last year, but hope springs eternal. After the way other properties have shipped Ubi should have the right manpower available, so I'm going to take a wishful stand and say that it will ship in 2016.
- My squad will wipe and I will lose the world to aliens many, many times playing X-Com 2.
Greg "doubtingthomas396" Decker
1) Warner Brothers will release another open world game with Arkham style combat. The license will be Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, and it will actually be kind of awesome.
2) Oculus Rift’s system requirements and $600 price point will prove to cool the ardor of many enthusiasts, leading to a price drop in the later half of the year. It won't help.
3) Nintendo will announce that their next console is a handheld system that plugs into a dock that will allow you to play games on your television.
3a) Nintendo’s next console will be digital only, and will not support playing disc-based WiiU games.
3b) Nintendo will continue to link all digital game purchases to hardware serial numbers.
3c) If 3a and 3b are both true, later in the year Nintendo will announce an optical disc drive add-on to allow people to play WiiU games on the new console. It will plug into the dock and the handheld system will become the controller. The WiiU controller will not pair with the NX.
4) Paid mods will return to the news when Bethesda releases the mod kit for Fallout 4. It will only be implemented on consoles, because Bethesda hates console owners and resents having to port their games onto them, as evidenced by how their console ports always work (or, rather, fail to).
5) Everyone will realize that TellTale games has jumped the shark when they announce a Happy Days game in the style of all of their other dialogue-tree adventure games.
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No Elysium? No rabbit? No Demiurge? No Amoebic?
Steam: [GWJ]MeatMan | "Now I know where to go if I have a hankering for testicles." –Higgledy
Apart from Star Citizen (which I think will still be a bit of a mess in 2016), I think Shawn's predictions will be pretty close to accurate for the year and almost exactly line up with how I see things playing out.
That and Monster Hunter Online, but I think Capcom has long ago let the ship sail on Monster Hunter ever being a thing in the West. I'm also hoping that they announce Dragon's Dogma 2, that game has gone too long without a sequel.
My Predictions:
Nintendo
-Nintendo NX revealed this year. If it's at or before E3, it'll be out by the end of the year, if not the release will be in 2017.
-Nintendo NX will essentially be an upgraded Wii U in which the Gamepad is small enough, and powerful enough to be used as a DS. There will be no successor to the DS line apart from the NX.
-Legend of Zelda is split across generations (Wii U and NX)
-Nintendo games on mobile will make insane amounts of money
Sony
-Morpheus will be out by the end of the year and within 6 months of release it'll be obvious to everyone that Morpheus won the VR fight.
-PS4 redesign to co-incide with the Morpheus launch
-No pricedrop on the PS4
-The Vita will continue to be a zombie
-A majority of the big releases (No Man's Sky, Horizon, Uncharted 4, FFXIV, TLG) will come out and be disappointments due to insanely high expectations and/or Sony pressuring the devs to release so that they don't have another 2015 like drought.
Microsoft
-Another XB1 price drop
-A software update will let the XB1 act like a pseudo-PC the same way the Lumia 950 can
-MS will announce Windows 10 to XB1 game streaming
PC
-We're going to see less developers adopting early access now that the service has matured and the cons are better understood
-SteamOS will continue to go nowhere compared to Windows but will improve the number of games available for Linux and OS X
-4K 144Hz screens will become the new "excuse to upgrade"
-Star Citizen will continue to be kind of a cluster****
-Insanely expensive Oculus setup will make for some great gaming experiences, but the Oculus will remain too expensive to be mainstream, by the end of 2016 we'll see previous Oculus exclusives announcing non-VR versions
I was wondering if this was still happening this year. I assume the writer's pen wanted to wait until after Occulus pricing was announced so no one would look bad by guessing a ridiculous price?
I'm ok with this. It's definitely possible to make a game world feel "big" without actually having tens of virtual square miles. Look at classic adventure games.
Here's my predictions:
EDIT: Forgot to add, that I think the Sony VR and HTC Vive price predictions feel right to me. I think Occulus drew a realistic line in the sand with their pricing and I doubt the competition are going to significantly drift from that target. $100 swing in either direction makes sense.
I would like to add that Ubisoft takes Beyond Good & Evil 2 to Kickstarter. Whether it works or not does not matter to me.
As for last year, new comments in bold:
Oh, and:
I'd bet you better odds that Wonderful 201 gets announced for NX before Mother 3 gets localized in the states. Wishful thinking for wishful thinking?
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Oooo. I could see BG&E 2 hitting Kickstarter. I don't think they'll do it but it certainly feels like a good candidate for the service (and I'm doubtful that happens this year anyways).
TWEWY 2 announcement is wishful thinking for wishful thinking (and Spore 2 is the comedy option). Fangamer said in a Kickstarter update that there might be some Mother related news this year but they couldn't really say much more than that. So I consider this slightly more than wishful thinking even though I expect there's not a strong chance of it happening. I would absolutely love to be surprised by the announcement though!
Conference Callers mostly gave theirs in audio format this year.
Words... are a big deal.
Jill Lapore wrote:Editing is one of the great inventions of civilization.
This particular prediction I made last year really stings.
WCG USA 2005
I didn't chime in this year because I can't honestly say I'm plugged into industry goings on, due to a 2-month scion dominating my waking attention. And then Certis went and asked for only "serious" predictions.
Edit: Apparently that wasn't Certis. Someone got on the serious train, though, and it's in my Dad Contract to ride that train when it rolls through.
Review of 2015:
It's a broad one, but pulled from Rasputin, which should be worth something. Anyway, I think it was a good year for niche and forgotten genres—even some fairly healthy talk about flight sticks!
Maybe? I feel like we mostly gave up on trying to draw a line other than "AAA" and "everything else."
Not as much as I'd hope, perhaps, but seeing a lot more recognition that gamers aren't just the stereotype. Not that there aren't still eyeroll-inducing comments on, for example, broadcast TV talk shows.
Surprising myself by how accurate I was about the last part of that. I've had to pull myself back from over-engagement on Reddit and Facebook a number of times in the past year.
PC by default.
Not so much. VR and 3rd-person car sports don't really cut it. Maybe things like Beginner's Guide could be said to play more with "perspective," but not camera perspective.
I think I need a nap or strong coffee before I can respond to this. What kind of bubbly jerk would write something like this?
Words... are a big deal.
Jill Lapore wrote:Editing is one of the great inventions of civilization.
I guess that explains why there aren't any bold predictions. The bold ones were the main reason I pay attention to the annual predictions.
Steam: [GWJ]MeatMan | "Now I know where to go if I have a hankering for testicles." –Higgledy
I see what you did there. Well done. Well done, indeed!
My predictions? Um...
- No Man's Sky will fail to deliver on many if not most of its promises, ending up a rather underwhelming offering that was vastly overshadowed by its own hype.
- Square-Enix will continue to neglect fans asking for Final Fantasy XII HD or a remaster of the PS2 game
- Final Fantasy VII's first episode will be released by year's end and please just about no one because it is impossible for it to live up to the fantasies of all of us jaded fans after nearly 20 years. The project will be summarily shut down and never be taken up again.
These are negative, I know, but it's in the hope of being proven wrong. I ain't no soothsayer!
Now Playing: Crimson Shroud, Blood of Bahamut, SMT IV, RDR, SBCG4AP, Octopath Traveler, The Baconing, The Legend of Dragoon.
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I've been sitting on these for almost two weeks:
* Rockstar announces and releases...Bully 2.
* Nintendo debuts the name of the console codenamed NX and somehow it's not something we'll be making fun of. Probably because it won't sound like a portion of the anatomy in English.
* No Man's Sky launches and...it gets kind of dull after the first couple hours.
* Star Citizen's single player component launches and while its mechanics will be praised, the story will leave people scratching their heads as they remember that while Chris Roberts created one of the greatest video games in Wing Commander, he also created one of the worst video game movies in Wing Commander. The MMO might go into beta by the end of the year.
* Rounding out our big space MMOs, Elite Dangerous continues to pile on new feature after new feature, but if flying around in circles buying and selling rares or probing into deep space isn't your thing, then you probably won't be compelled to keep grinding along.
* DC announces not one but two new games: a Justice League game by Rocksteady and a direct sequel to Batman: Arkham Origins by WB Montreal.
* Oculus Rift owners will threaten to break the legs of anyone who drops the ~ $600 goggles while trying them out, especially family members.
* EA and Lucasfilm announce a new Star Wars game headed by Uncharted's Amy Hennig and Assassin's Creed's Jade Raymond. So, expect a lot of climbing, jumping, and missiles to the face.
* XCOM 2 will be so big, GWJ will need three threads to contain it.
* Deus Ex: Mankind Divided will be released...on consoles first. No one's making the Arkham Knight mistake again.
* This year's GOTY will be not listed above, probably because it'll be this year's equivalent of Her Story or Undertale.
* Non-game prediction: We continue to see the trend of fewer and fewer feature films being released to theaters first. If studios don't think it can pull Marvel or Star Wars box office, it goes into either limited release or straight to digital.
Edit: Adding a few more...
* Telltale's Batman game will get the same level of critical praise as Tales from Borderlands, mainly because of how it unlike every other super hero game out there gives as much play time for the secret identity as the hero. Also, someone wises up and commissions Telltale to do a Star Trek game.
* As much as we'd like a revival of the X-wing franchise, the best we'll probably get is a Rogue Squadron-like franchise.
* Uncharted 4 will be an improvement over Uncharted 3. Crafting shivs out of grade school scissors probably won't be in it.
* Mass Effect Andromeda will come out and will have a tall order in trying to live up to the previous trilogy and characters.
* Harebrained Schemes will release so many teases of Battletech that gamers will be cursing that this is 2016, not 2017.
* Probably will see another FMV game or two in the vein of Her Story because of its success.
I wish you guys would stop encouraging him.
EvilHomer3k wrote:You are an evil, evil person.
Baron Of Hell wrote:YOU VILLAIN!
I didn't do so hot last year, but I'll play the "I was being unserious" card.
Comments in Bold.
Here's to a more accurate 2016!
Jonman Wrote:
Yes, you can cancel Darksiders, but only by using your Sony Golds. Which, while pretty good, aren't a patch on Zelda.
I'm A Steam Curator!
I have not read the thread or listened to the call...
But first, how did I do?
Now, for the fun...
PSN: UpToIsomorphism
oilypenguin: That is a terrible joke and I'd ask you to be ashamed of yourself but you've been around here long enough that I know you'll be proud of it.
detroit20: UptoIsomorphism has it right.
Alright, here we go.
Jacksonville Jaguars, playoffs, 2016. Book it!
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"The golden shower threw me off." -- garion333
Shadow of Mordor, but with Ninja Turtles? Where do I send my money?
New Wii U Plus
They don't show the system or controller and are shocked when people think it's an add on.
WCG USA 2005
Second verse, same as the first.
Regarding rabbit predicting the new name will be Core, I completely disagree. I thought Nintendo tried (and failed) to reattract "core" gamers with the Wii U, since it's actually an HD console. Because that failed, I think they accept their "non-core" customer base and double down on that market. Before the Wii was released, wasn't there a rumor that its name was Revolution? I could see the new console having that name way before any possibility of it being "Core".
Steam: [GWJ]MeatMan | "Now I know where to go if I have a hankering for testicles." –Higgledy
Oh man, I forgot to predict last year. Which means I got nothing wrong. That in mind, from someone who didn't get a single whiff in 2015...
Bold Predictions
-No Man's Sky is wildly successful and places 6th in the community GOTY.
-Despite the high price point, the Rift is the most successful of the various VR flavors.
-A single player Star Wars game in the style of XCOM is announced, but the X-Wing franchise continues to wait impatiently for someone to reboot or remaster it.
-Dark Souls III will divide fans into two political factions: Those that considered it better than DS2 and Bloodborne but worse than the original, and those who find it better than every other Dark Souls title but not quite as good as Bloodborne. The demographics for each faction will roughly correlate with what people played first. If Bloodborne was a player's first "souls" experience, they're more likely to be in the latter faction. If a player has been a From junkie since the heady days of Demon Souls, they're likely to be in the prior. Despite the fact that these factions more or less have the same tastes - and all enjoy Dark Souls III - they will be bitter, bitter rivals.
-Probably borderline crazy prediction, but Eitr outperforms Dark Souls III on the community GOTY list
-Whatever crazy game ends up being "The Rocket League of 2016" will involve sharks. Possibly dinosaurs.
LastSuprise: Destroyer of Wallets would be an excellent tag and/or third handle for you.
https://twitter.com/theharpomarxist
Rocket Sharks Water Polo!
Steam: [GWJ]MeatMan | "Now I know where to go if I have a hankering for testicles." –Higgledy
-Nintendo announces their new console via Nintendo Direct before E3. It will not be available for purchase in 2016, however. The console will be called the Nintendo Nexus, and will be touted as THE central place for all of your Nintendo gaming -- including backwards-compatibility support for all prior Nintendo consoles (via emulators) built-in to the system. Controllers from older Nintendo systems will be usable on the Nexus (via proprietary cable adapters, if necessary). Furthermore, the system will support VR through an optional add-on headset.
-Microsoft announces at E3 that Xbox One games (disc-based and downloadable titles) will be playable on Windows 10, via an updated Xbox app, free for all Windows 10 PCs. The Xbox app will look & behave similar to the current Xbox One dashboard. By doing this, Microsoft will be able to claim the largest install base on the planet for their "console".
GWJ Action Game Club
I was about 50% last year, let's see what I can do for 2016
1. No Man's Sky is a flop, primarily because there isn't a well defined game to play in it. Ambition over design doc.
2. VR sticker shock across the board. PS VR will cost more than console and be DOA. Vive will require too much space and be more expensive than Rift. Rift controllers will tack another $125 onto Oculus cost. Adoption will be low, developers will cool development, lack of games will prevent wider sales. Locks in niche status.
3. NX will be talked about, but no release date. Won't come out in 2016.
4. Microsoft will announce next Xbox at E3, late 2017 launch target.
ClockworkHouse: He means the comic The Dark Knight Returns, where Batman and Superman get in a fistfight over Gotham. Not The Dark Knight Rises, where Batman and a loudly farting orchestra get in a fistfight over your attention.
This is going to happen. It just makes sense lol.
Aint nothing new about the world order..it's been playing since the day they put George Washington on a quarter
Delivering Truth while the 10% deliver lies.
PC: In 2016, Camelot Unchained will win "The Longest Newsletter" award by Massively OP. Again. Also, it will not launch. Again.
Crowall will also delay it's launch to 2017 and beyond, making Pathologic 2 (November) my last hope.
Camelot Unchained...or Crowfall ?
I have no idea how I missed this last year, as it's one of my favorite gwj things! Anyhow, prediction time!
The Last Guardian really should've released X yrs ago, as it fails to impress critics and gamers alike. It has good ratings, but nothing too special. (I hope I'm wrong!)
XCOM 2:
-Becomes my GOTY.
-Becomes GWJ's GOTY.
-I manage to clock 1200hrs by year's end.
No Man's Sky fails to impress.
Firewatch releases to great reviews.
Horizon: Zero Dawn is delayed to 2017. (hope I'm wrong!)
FF12 HD Remaster announced!
FF15 does ok numbers, but is overall critically panned and widely considered a descent further into the "wrong" direction. And "they" are right. Also, everyone at GWJ hates it except, surprise, Clocky, who loves it.
FF7 Remake:
-Announcement: it will have elements of Crisis Core, Dirge of Cerberus, or any of their other spin-offs.
-Gold Saucer shown at E3.
-Announcement: it will be 4 total parts.
-Part 1 will not release in 2016.
Makers of Cities:Skylines announce either sequel, or big expansion to release in 2016.
No new God of War.
Kojima's new game gets a title.
Mass Effect Andromeda releases to amazing reviews and does great financially. It's MP will be amazing and expands on ME3's counterpart.
Uncharted 4 releases and everyone loves it, but come year's close, no one remembers it.
Overwatch is quickly forgotten. It won't have the legs TF2 had.
VR... wow, hmmm... I think it won't be the year of VR just yet. Early adopters love it, but price is quite the obstacle. The Sony VR will be $499, but Oculus still "wins" the race.
Nintendo blah, blah, blah, something, something NX at E3.
No new Zelda or Metroid in 2016.
Non-Gaming:
Batman V Superman flops.
Civil War is good.
X-Men:Apocalypse lands somewhere in the 70% at RT.
Deadpool is absolutely loved or hated, no in-betweens, but doesn't make good bank.
EDIT: Added a few more
Let's see here,
-I think Xcom 2 will be a hit and contender for GotY
-by time the 'season pass' expansions are released there will be plans for another expansion
-E3 will show off at least one new game that will release this year similar to Fallout 4 last year.
-Nintendo's NX will be unique and have a successful launch
-More FF7 remake trailers but, part 1 will not release until next year.
-Mass Effect Andromeda will show more footage but, will not release this year.
-Madden will be ported to the PC this year.
-Monster Hunter franchise will get larger in the west and be the most successful yet.
-Dark Souls 3 will introduce something that is a game changer for the series
-MoBAs will die down and the big 3 (Dota,LoL,HotS) will be the only ones
-Overwatch will be more successful on PCs although the console version will still be solid.
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Allright, so I'll be commenting my own predictions first, and then making up some new ones in the second part.
This was the first I time I did this, really fun to see how (badly) my predictions fared when the end of the year came around.
Allright. That's last year's predictions.
Predictions for 2016:
1. The year will end up being more disappointing to most people than 2015, which was a fantastic year IMO.
2. Rise of the Tomb Raider will be released on PS4 in the end of 2016, I'm guessing november. Because of christmas.
3. The NX will be unveiled at E3. The bold prediction is that they will go back to having a live press conference for this year only.
4. The NX will at it's core be a traditional game console. No funky controllers or anything. Holding out hopes for the handheld/console hybrid, but a more likely scenario is two separate machines with extremely similar architectures, that will receive all the same games. (At least the games made by Nintendo). Kind of like they did with Super Smash. My wishful thinking prediction is that you only have to buy the game once, and you get in on both platforms, kind of like Steam.
I guess that's all I can come up with. I haven't been paying as much attention to the industry at large lately.
As primarily a PS4'er, I won't bother with PC or Xbox predictions.
PSN: Swordsman74
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Twitter: mmlmrx
I can say with confidence that, unless Iwata was lying to his investors, all of you predicting that Nintendo's NX will be some kind of handheld with a dock, or a Wii U where you can take the controller with you, or anything like that are wrong.
My bold prediction is that, regarding NX: I was right. I've been saying it for awhile, and I'm going to keep saying it until we see otherwise.
Professionally offended. Does not understand jokes. Needs a man to explain them to me.
I can say with absolute confidence that next year's Conference Call look back at the 2016 predictions will include under the 2016 audio excerpts a very faint soundtrack so that the listener can better ascertain whether she is hearing 2017 commentary on the 2016 prediction or whether she is hearing a 2016 prediction. My further prediction...the soundtrack selected shall be the theme from Benny Hill.
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