NFL 2014: Week 4

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Week 3 Thoughts:

* Arizona signing Jared Veldheer has paid off for them. He is a key cog in the team’s surprise 3-0 record, having given up 0 sacks as the starting LT. I would give Oakland a lot of crap for letting him get away, but Oakland landed Donald Penn, who has been pretty good for them. The real loser of this LT musical chairs is Tampa Bay, who replaced Penn with a seemingly superior Anthony Collins, but so far Collins has not been the player for them that he was for Cincinnati.
* A big part of SF’s woes is the lack of pass rush from their edge ‘backers. 3 of the team’s 4 sacks have come from Justin Smith, with only 1 from the linebackers. The lack of edge pressure is magnifying the team’s issues with injured and young players in the secondary.
* Injuries are out of control. 197 players did not suit up this week due to being on IR, PUP, or NFI, with an additional 21 players out from suspension or on the special exemption list.
* I targeted DeMarco Murray in fantasy this year, and I wish I targeted him even harder than I did. He’s currently on pace for over 2,050 yards. Murray is an underrated player - he’s got a career 5.0 yard per carry average, and that’s purely on feature back carries - and the Dallas offensive line is full of talent.
* If you’re stuck watching a Buffalo game, just focus on Kyle Williams. Short of JJ Watt, he is the best non-edge-rusher defensive lineman in the game.
* Despite being 3-0, PFF has actually graded Arizona's offense the 6th worst of the season so far, and their defense the 9th worst.

Pick ‘Ems

Green Bay @ Chicago: Both of these teams are currently looking up at the Detroit Lions in their division standings. Do you expect it to stay that way? Me neither. Green Bay’s offense has been stuck in the mud, tied for 3rd fewest TDs in the NFC. Worse, only Tampa and St. Louis have given up more points in the conference. Chicago is coming off 2 prime time road wins, but have not been playing quite as well across the board as that would indicate. Their wins were largely fueled by 7 turnovers by their combined 2 opponents. Their offense mustered only 216 and 257 yards in those 2 contests, while their opponents out gained them with 359 and 414 yards, respectively. Credit the defense for grabbing the ball when they could, but these trends don’t tend to hold long term. Chicago’s offense and defense need to perform better play-in and play-out to keep winning.

Philadelphia @ San Francisco: A tale of two opposites. San Francisco has taken healthy leads into their 3 games, only to do nothing in the 2nd half and lose two of them. Philadelphia’s 1st halves have been impotent, while they have rallied strong in the second half to 3 victories. Few players have been a bigger burden for San Francisco than RT Jonathan Martin, which is why the team is so excited to see Anthony Davis back in practice. The 6th ranked Niners defense has largely held opponents in check, but penalties and offensive turnovers have moved the ball against them where opposing offenses haven’t - their 17 first downs yielded by penalty are tops in the league by a large margin. For the Niners to get back on track, they need to clean those things up in a hurry.

Buffalo @ Houston: One of these teams is going to be 3-1. Seriously. Barring any tie nonsense, that is. As mentioned above, this game does have two studs in JJ Watt and Kyle Williams. Last week, Ryan Fitzpatrick did what Ryan Fitzpatrick does, which is stink up the field after posting two efficient, winning games. EJ Manuel has been unimpressive, mostly throwing screens and dumpoffs and other short stuff, leaving a talent like Sammy Watkins out to rot. Manuel’s pass direction chart has him throwing an incredible amount of balls (39 of his 87 total) in the middle of the field, 9 yards or less, including 13 behind the line of scrimmage. No other QB’s pass chart looks like that.

Atlanta @ Minnesota: With Cassel on the IR, the Bridgewater era begins! Vegas must have some hope for Teddy, as the Vikings go into this game only 3 point dogs to the Falcons, who come into this game extra rested and with their offense firing on all cylinders after a tune-up against Tampa. Minnesota has been fairly hapless on offense, but they have been better defensively. They’re going to need more than the single-digit scores they’ve posted two weeks running to keep up with Atlanta.

New England @ Kansas City: New England is a 1st place team right now solely on the strength of their top ranked defense, which ranks in the top 5 in both yardage and points allowed. Good thing, because their 26th ranked offense has been going nowhere in a hurry, least of all in a 16 point effort last week against Oakland. Kansas City’s offense hasn’t fared much better, but they are coming off a 34 point stomping of Miami a week ago. Alex Smith continues to dink and dunk more than any QB not named EJ Manuel, but after the disaster of week 1, he’s at least gotten efficient at it - his 73% completion against Miami brought to mind his play in his final year in San Francisco. The matchup to watch here is Chandler Jones against a struh-guh-leeng Eric Fisher, who has shown little of the talent that made him a #1 overall pick.

Make your Week 4 picks now!

Week 3 Results:

Kush15 : 5 - 0
PseudoPrime1979 : 5 - 0
Infyrnos : 4 - 1
Dysplastic : 4 - 1
Jowner : 4 - 1
Top_Shelf : 4 - 1
Neozilla : 4 - 1
MilkmanDanimal : 4 - 1
tboon : 4 - 1
Jayhawker : 4 - 1
Elliottx : 4 - 1
S0LIDARITY : 4 - 1
sr_malo : 4 - 1
jonfentyler : 4 - 1
Stele : 3 - 2
kaostheory : 3 - 2
oldmanscene24 : 3 - 2
EvilDead : 3 - 2
Secret Asian Man : 3 - 2
Nomad : 3 - 2
boogle : 3 - 2
bighoppa : 3 - 2
Bubs14 : 3 - 2
Minase : 3 - 2
karmajay : 3 - 2
AnimeJ : 3 - 2
billt721 : 3 - 2
Xeknos : 3 - 2
McFinn : 3 - 2
TheGameGuru : 3 - 2
Oddsmakers : 3 - 2
iaintgotnopants : 2 - 3
Zaque : 2 - 3
mudbunny : 2 - 3
Cube : 2 - 3
onewild : 2 - 3
LeapingGnome : 2 - 3
Vector : 1 - 4
TempestBlayze : 1 - 4

Season to Date:
Dysplastic : 11 - 4
jonfentyler : 11 - 4
Jowner : 11 - 4
Neozilla : 11 - 4
Stele : 11 - 4
Kush15 : 10 - 5
EvilDead : 9 - 6
FSeven : 9 - 6
Jayhawker : 9 - 6
Minase : 9 - 6
Secret Asian Man : 9 - 6
TheGameGuru : 9 - 6
Elliottx : 8 - 7
Infyrnos : 8 - 7
kaostheory : 8 - 7
karmajay : 8 - 7
MilkmanDanimal : 8 - 7
Nomad : 8 - 7
oldmanscene24 : 8 - 7
tboon : 8 - 7
Oddsmakers : 8 - 7

AnimeJ : 7 - 3
billt721 : 7 - 8
boogle : 7 - 8
Bubs14 : 7 - 8
Cube : 7 - 8
iaintgotnopants : 7 - 8
McFinn : 7 - 8
sr_malo : 7 - 3
Vector : 7 - 8
onewild : 6 - 9
TempestBlayze : 6 - 9
bighoppa : 5 - 5
Gumbie : 5 - 5
PseudoPrime1979 : 5 - 0
S0LIDARITY : 5 - 0
Xeknos : 5 - 5
Zaque : 5 - 5
Certis : 4 - 6
Cobble : 4 - 1
garion333 : 4 - 6
Jolly Bill : 4 - 6
Kosars : 4 - 1
LeapingGnome : 4 - 11
Leroyog : 4 - 6
thejustinbot : 4 - 6
Top_Shelf : 4 - 6
Atras : 3 - 2
mrwynd : 1 - 4
mudbunny : 1 - 4
UpToIsomorphism : 1 - 4

Killing me. I can't pick against the 49ers. I can't pick against Teddy. You're forcing my hand this week. :p

I should be at 11-4 overall. I submitted my picks each week and went 5-0, 2-3, and 4-1. Check the results in the threads.

S0LIDARITY wrote:

I should be at 11-4 overall. I submitted my picks each week and went 5-0, 2-3, and 4-1. Check the results in the threads.

Something weird happened. Simple copy+paste of formula from last year but cells were duplicated or something. What a mess. It wasn't just your total, but several others too. Think everything is right now:

Season to Date:
Dysplastic : 11 - 4
jonfentyler : 11 - 4
Neozilla : 11 - 4
Stele : 11 - 4
S0LIDARITY : 11 - 4
Kush15 : 10 - 5
EvilDead : 9 - 6
Jayhawker : 9 - 6
Minase : 9 - 6
Secret Asian Man : 9 - 6
TheGameGuru : 9 - 6
Oddsmakers : 9 - 6
Top_Shelf : 9 - 6
Jowner : 8 - 2
Elliottx : 8 - 7
Infyrnos : 8 - 7
kaostheory : 8 - 7
MilkmanDanimal : 8 - 7
Nomad : 8 - 7
oldmanscene24 : 8 - 7
tboon : 8 - 7
Zaque : 8 - 7
karmajay : 7 - 8
AnimeJ : 7 - 3
billt721 : 7 - 8
boogle : 7 - 8
Cube : 7 - 8
iaintgotnopants : 7 - 8
McFinn : 7 - 8
sr_malo : 7 - 3
Vector : 7 - 8
mudbunny : 7 - 8
Bubs14 : 6 - 9
onewild : 6 - 9
TempestBlayze : 6 - 9
bighoppa : 5 - 5
Gumbie : 5 - 5
PseudoPrime1979 : 5 - 0
Xeknos : 5 - 5
Certis : 4 - 6
Cobble : 4 - 1
garion333 : 4 - 6
Jolly Bill : 4 - 6
Kosars : 4 - 1
LeapingGnome : 4 - 11
Leroyog : 4 - 6
thejustinbot : 4 - 6
FSeven : 3 - 7
Atras : 3 - 2
mrwynd : 1 - 4
UpToIsomorphism : 1 - 4

I'd like to be 11-4 too please. Make it so.

Spoiler:

worth a shot

11-4!

Tough week to pick this week. I decided to go with ELO for all my picks, except Atlanta-Minny. I just can't see Atlanta losing this one, Bridgewater or no Bridgewater.

* I targeted DeMarco Murray in fantasy this year, and I wish I targeted him even harder than I did. He’s currently on pace for over 2,050 yards. Murray is an underrated player - he’s got a career 5.0 yard per carry average, and that’s purely on feature back carries - and the Dallas offensive line is full of talent.

Yeah ... and he isn't broken yet. If this is the year he makes all 16 games I'm gonna be pissed.

* Despite being 3-0, PFF has actually graded Arizona's offense the 6th worst of the season so far, and their defense the 9th worst.

Their defense would be dead last if not for Patrick Peterson shutting down the opposition.

garion333 in week 3 thread wrote:

Dallas @ St. Louis. Ugh. Seriously, can we get a Jags game to pick? NO ONE. I AM PICKING NO ONE AND DON'T CARE THAT I GET NO POINTS FOR DOING SO. THIS IS A PROTEST!

Baltimore @ Cleveland. Gotta go with the homer pick here in Baltimore. This may be closer than history tells us it should be.

San Francisco @ Arizona. Patrick Peterson for the win. Arizona.

Denver @ Seattle. Oh man. Seattle at home. Gotta play those odds regardless of who is coming to town.

Chicago @ NY Jets. The Jets have been competitive running Chris Ivory. CHRIS IVORY! I like Chicago and their Who You Gonna Cover set of receivers better though.

Well garrion got his wish from last week. He never filled out the form, so he actually gets no pick for Dallas/St Louis game, and goes 4-1.

That makes him 8-7 on the year, just pretend he's in the list above somewhere. :p

I wish SF had won last week's game.. as it stands now I had this game as a loss for the Eagles anyway..but I would have still rather played SF coming off a win.. since this is about as a "must win" game for SF you can have in week 4.

Stele wrote:

Well garrion got his wish from last week. He never filled out the form, so he actually gets no pick for Dallas/St Louis game, and goes 4-1.

That makes him 8-7 on the year, just pretend he's in the list above somewhere. :p

Thanks! My protest still stands.

Still no Jags game, gonna have to protest again.

Good week of picks this week. Of course, any time I get to pick Green Bay over Chicago is a good week.

Green Bay @ Chicago: Shootout! Green Bay needs some luck to go their way with their perennially injured OL.

Philadelphia @ San Francisco: San Fran has to win one of these days. Why not this one?!?

Buffalo @ Houston: Buffalo. They won't start losing until week 6.

Atlanta @ Minnesota: PROTEST!!! [size=0]Honestly this one could go either way.[/size]

New England @ Kansas City: KC is still tough at home, right?

Don't protest. Vote for Teddy!

Heh. Stevie Johnson takes to Twitter, urging people to score points for his "fantasy work team".

*Legion* wrote:

Heh. Stevie Johnson takes to Twitter, urging people to score points for his "fantasy work team".

Hopefully he didn't draft me, since I'm on here at work.

*Legion* wrote:

Heh. Stevie Johnson takes to Twitter, urging people to score points for his "fantasy work team".

The best is the TPS report and he responds with a Lumbergh.

South Park's treatment of the Washington football team, the NFL, and Goodell (and Kickstarter and startup culture) was spot on.

Even better, between the airing of the promo and the actual episode, they re-animated it to replace RG3 with Kirk Cousins.

EDIT:

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No real interest other than hoping Legion's Curse of the Moldy Hobos keeps the SF 49ers of Santa Clara winless at "home".

Do you think Grantland could have found a byline picture for Bill Barnwell that makes him look more schlubby?

Don't forget that this is the Panthers' week to play at Baltimore.

I love Steve Smith, but I want his stat line to be 2-18 this week.

Unfortunately for Carolina, if anyone can will his way to a 10-210-2 TD week, it's Smitty.

I'm hearing a lot of "Washington" during tonight's game.

I think it may be time to get a Donnell jersey

TempestBlayze wrote:

I think it may be time to get a Donnell jersey :)

I see him being the big fantasy pick-up next week.

Eli threw three of something in the first half!

And they're not interceptions!

Now this is against the Redskins but the Giants are looking really damn good here.

OK, who the **** is this team in white?!?!

And who is the guy wearing Manning's jersey?

Prederick wrote:

Eli threw three of something in the first half!

And they're not interceptions!

And none of them to a player I own in Fantasy Football. And I own 3 different Giants between my 3 teams.

Kush15 wrote:

OK, who the **** is this team in white?!?!

And who is the guy wearing Manning's jersey?

I'll bet Coughlin promised him he could get whatever ice cream he wanted on the way home if he played well.

Phil Simms just said Cousins threw a pass "right where he wanted to throw it"...

Spoiler:

It was thrown directly to Prince Amukamara.

*EDIT*
In other news, this MIGHT be reversed for a TD. Not sure it is enough to change it though.

This game is getting bonkers. So happy I put Giants D in fantasy this week

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