2014/15 Soccer Thread

Interesting to see some big clubs (Barca, Bayern, Arsenal) sign a fairly high-profile 2nd-string keeper (Claudio Bravo, Reina, Ospina). It seems like a fairly new development to me and I wonder if Valdes' injury last year and Barcelona being stuck playing Pinto changed some views on that importance of that role.

My main PC was down with a dead video card for a little over a week so I read three books in some free time, two of which were soccer related. Inverting the Pyramid was a re-read but it's still probably the best sports book I've read, just brilliant. It made me want to boot up Football Manager again.

The Numbers Game was pretty good, though it needed a 'Clutch' and a 'Malcolm Gladwell' alarm klaxon. I've owned it for about a year or so but never got past the first chapter, skipping the chapter got the job done. It's not overly complicated or sophisticated in the numbers department but what I appreciated was the "soccer is awesome, here's why, and this is what the low-scoring nature of the game means" parts. You can tell that those bits are in there because it's written by Americans and it's a reaction to the North American "change soccer to make it more like other sports so I'll enjoy it" non-soccer fan ideas.

I guess i should get around to somewhat (and weakly) defending my Arsenal prediction. The crux of it is this: their shot-metrics have been trending down like Manchester United's did late in Ferguson's reign and though those metrics aren't the most sophisticated thing to look at stats-wise, they're what I'm familiar with and they're fairly predictable. The manager change played a big role in Man Utd's downfall but the team already had issues and Arsenal's currently trending on the same path, though gracefully they don't have to endure Moyes.

Sanchez and Campbell are good additions (Sanchez in particular) but I see them as more of attacking midfielders/support strikers rather than guys who can play as a #9. You could change the system if Giroud goes down but I think going to something like a false-nine in the middle of a season is going to take an adjustment period which could cost them points. They've upgraded in the attacking midfield spot again plus Walcott will be back which will also add some much-needed pace for Ozil to ping balls through to, but I think they've downgraded at rightback (Chambers is one for the future, though I thought he played centreback in a friendly or two?), the base of their midfield could use a little more reinforcement, Giroud doesn't generate chances like a top striker does, and Giroud and Ramsey are probably going to see their goal-scoring drop simply due to percentage regression. 3-6 should be very, very tight in the Champions League races but Arsenal being unable to effectively rotate their main centre forward doesn't look good to me.

Leaked screenshot of Psych's fantasy team:

IMAGE(http://i.imgur.com/qOaQhPF.png)

I do love me some Gylfi Sigurdsson, but sadly it seems I could only pick him once.

I will blame my future loss on that fact.

Roke wrote:

Stuff

Wish I had more time to read for interest as theres lots of stuff thats on my hit list.

As for the Arsenal stuff.

RB. I dont see Debuchy as a downgrade more of a side grade. Obviously cue his first game horror show.

Striker I'm concerned but Arsenal have the qualities that get the job done vs the bottom half of the table. Their problem is against other top clubs. I don't see that changing. The lack of a striker depth will hurt but that midfield attacking quality should tear apart 3/4 of the league.

Shot metrics? I don't know them and I would be interested in learning but for me of the little metrics I've read and liked was quality chances. The difference of creating shots from inside the 6 yard box versus the box versus outside.

Going back to the midfield I can see Arsenal carving some of the poorer sides up and them generating the majority of their chances in places that are a higher conversion %. If this is a wrong assumption and they are actually going backwards regarding this I would be open to see the info. Just cant see Ozil year 2, Ramsey back healthy, Carzola, Wilshere with maybe his head screwed on, Walcott back, Chamberlin... + Sanchez and maybe Cambell if he stays struggling to generate chances... Its almost maybe too many attacking mids. Thats 8 guys for 4 spots assuming Arteta starts in the holding role. Thats without even counting on Podolski, Rosicky, Flamini. Just cant see teams like Liverpool/Spurs/United pushing them with their equivalent Midfields and lets not look at their defenses.

Base of Midfield you got me. Thing is I think we still sign Khedira.

I don't see 3-6 being close. Arsenal were closer to 3rd last year than Everton were close to 4th (3 versus 7 points). I could see 4-5th being close but I wouldn't be surprised if Spurs (6th) are far from Liverpool/United (4th/5th not sure who's who) and that Arsenal are comfortably a good 5+ points from both.

Haven't though out my full predictions but:

3. Arsenal
4/5 Liverpool United
6th Spurs? f*ck why not Everton?

All I'm honestly confident about is that City and Chelsea will compete for the title while Arsenal might fake a run and just end up 3rd. If Arsenal end up 4th it will be dramatic like last year but not really and end up being comfortable.

So, you think a "Suarez-less" Liverpool isn't a title contender?

Big game for Celtic tonight omni. Think they have it in them?

I'm certainly not hoping that they don't so we can pull Forster from a pool of Scottish tears. Nope. That would be rude.

It will certainly hurt if they don't make it. 15m is a lot of money for them, no? End up selling three or four it sounds like?

slazev wrote:

So, you think a "Suarez-less" Liverpool isn't a title contender?

Liverpool has to actually play a big boy season this year.

Last year they played 43 games.

This year alone if they lose in the first round of the League Cup, Fa Cup and CL they will play 46 games.

Its partly why their transfer season has been a bit dyslexic. Just shoot everywhere and bring players in because they are going to need allot more quality players than they did last year.

Worst case disaster for them is that they end up with a hugely difficult CL group cause their UEFA ranking is sh*t and end up dumped into the Europa league.

That happens they will be lucky to come 6th let alone 4th.

Last year no one expected anything of them, this year they do.
Last year Sturridge scored loads - he's not that good.
Last year Suarez scored loads - now he's gone.
Last year everyone in the media was pulling for them.
Last year people hadn't had 12 months of Brenda running his mouth off, this year they have.

Might do a cup, but not the league - the squad still isn't good enough. And here's a prediction, the more games Stevie Me plays, the lower down the league they'll be.

Here are my predictions for league finishes this season (for comparison, this was my prediction post for last season):

1) Chelsea
2) Manchester City
3) Arsenal
4) Manchester United
------------------------
5) Liverpool
6) Everton
7) Tottenham
8) Newcastle
9) Crystal Palace
10 Swansea
11) Hull
12) Southampton
13) Stoke
14) West Ham
15) QPR
16) Sunderland
17) West Brom
-----------------
18) Burnley
19) Aston Villa
20) Leicester

What website are you guys using for general news/stats/schedules etc.

Soccernet changed their format and its just downright horrendously cumbersome because I guess they think its stylish? The Prem table doesn't even display all the information in 1 window or let you sort by all the stats you want.

I've tried checking sky/guardian/bbc etc but they do a real poor job of having any old information etc.

For example to double check Liverpools fixtures last year I just used the Liverpool FC 2013/14 wiki page because no other website was straight forward.

Actually, I find myself using Wikipedia quite often too - it loads fast and is easy to search.

Spose I better post my predos.

1 - Chelsea
2 - City
3 - Arsenal
4 - Liverpool
5 - Everton
6 - Man United
7 - Spurs
8 - Southampton
9 - Swansea
10 - Stoke
11 - Newcastle
12 - Sunderland
13 - Leicester
14 - Aston Villa
15 - Crystal Palace
16 - Hull
17 - QPR
18 - West Ham
19 - West Brom (10m for a striker the manager admits he's never seen. Ooo, that's gonna work)
20 - Burnley (no goalscorer)

United are 6th because TIT is nowhere near as good as he thinks he is, his signings are iffy and it sounds like he'll be moving to a formation for which they are still lacking key players. West Ham, Hull and QPR are all bobbins, but I think QPR will stay up if Remy comes back and Hull appear to have resources. West Ham have paid £12m for someone they've seen play 4 games at the WC. Plus, Allardyce.

Oh, and apparently Rodgers has been telling TIT how much more difficult he'll find the Premiership. Sound advice coming from someone who won the Premiership to the fawning acclaim of the press...oh wait, they didn't did they. They f*cked it up and bottled it, didn't they. That guy is due for a great big fall, and I will be enjoying every second of it.

Manchester United
Chelsea
Manchester City
Arsenal
Tottenham
Liverpool

Thoughtless. And totally by the heart for United on top. Then I turn my head kind of back on for the rest. I originally had City above Chelsea because I hate Mourinhno much much more than how much I sometimes find Davet to be offensive.

But Chelsea has a ridiculous squad this year.

I think Arsenal is gonna squeak something out again probably.

I hate Liverpool, they lost Suarez, I just don't see any big signings to replace him, and I dont like Liverpool. Plus I hate Liverpool. They're all pricks.

(ps. If I was being realistic, I would place United below City THIS season).

And after I've gone out of my way to be nice this year as well.

I'm devastated

Ok here we go

1) Chelsea - Cesc + Costa should see them through. Lampard and Cole who?
2) Manchester City - Not that I don't rate them I just rate what Mourinho has done to improve the squad more and I think Manu might suffer from Wengerism (not playing pragmatic).
3) United - They have nothing else to play for. Its a huge advantage. By August 31st I expect them to unload allot of the sh*t Moyes didn't have the balls to do and still spend 60m+ on new players
4) Arsenal - They are still 1.5 transfer seasons from their new spending ways of being on par with Chelsea/City
------------------------
5) Everton - Barkley has a mini Bale type season. Rest of the team is pretty solid and Lukaku will go as far as his service + rage to prove Chelsea wrong.
6) Liverpool - Magical European nights at Anfield will be the death of them. Even more so if its in the Europa league. Try replicating last year meshing all those new players in and playing 50+ games.
7) Tottenham - What have they exactly done this transfer window? Look at that squad. Its not much better than say Newcastles.
8) Stoke - Mark Hughes isn't all that bad hes just not a top 4 manager, like David Moyes. Some interesting transfers also... Bojan? hes still only 23
9) Swansea - Not sure about Gary Monk and no Michu but I think the overall team has good quality.
10) Newcastle - Alan Pardew hahahhahahahahahha.
11) Crystal Palace - I want to laugh at Tony Pulis but he gets the job done.
12) Hull - Good transfer business and I like what they showed in their FA Cup run last year. They are also in Europe though so feel free to drop them to 17th if its a long run.
13) Southampton - Just too many guys out at once and the ones that stayed seem to be disgruntled.
14) West Brom - Made lots of transfer moves for allot of guys I don't know much about. Could be one to watch.
15) Aston Villa - Vlarr looked like Superman diving in to defend Messi. It was nonsensical. If no Benteke drop them to 18th
16) Sunderland - Altidore is 15:1 to be top goalscorer... Of Sunderland. Hes tied for 5th.
17) West Ham - I rate Fat Sam. Problem is he needs a Tony Pulis type job where the fans actually want him there to save them
-----------------
18) QPR - Will be comedy to watch how much Rio plays and how much he gets heckled. Really need more audio from stands.
19) Leicester - I can hardly identify a name on this team. I use to play FM more and could spot a bunch of random names from promotion teams. David Nugent? hahahahaha
20) Burnley - I know even less about this team.

Poke away. I'm sure these will do as well as my Fantasy team.

Is there not some rule that you have to place Tottenham in 5th with every prediction? From what little I have learned of the EPL, they are always just on the outside looking in, no?

Says a lot for the SPL when Celtic get binned from the CL 6-1 on aggregate in the qualifying rounds, yet Celtic will no doubt walk the SPL again.

Abu5217 wrote:

Is there not some rule that you have to place Tottenham in 5th with every prediction? From what little I have learned of the EPL, they are always just on the outside looking in, no? :)

Both jowner and I have them 7th, my friend.

They spend a lot of money, but not often wisely, partly because the chairman is over fond of sticking his oar in and dumping managers at the first sign of distress. That then leaves you with a load of overpriced players who the new manager may not want, but who you won't get back what you paid for them because everyone else knows you are desperate to get rid, so that you can buy the players the new manager does want.

Unless your old manager was Harry Redknapp, in which case you look where he's gone and help him engineer a load of dubiou...(remainder redacted on legal advice).

Howard Webb retires from refereeing to become PGMOL’s technical director

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/aug/06/howard-webb-retires-pgmol-technical-director

YAY!

davet010 wrote:
Abu5217 wrote:

Is there not some rule that you have to place Tottenham in 5th with every prediction? From what little I have learned of the EPL, they are always just on the outside looking in, no? :)

Both jowner and I have them 7th, my friend.

Oh, I know. As mentioned, I know very little (yet) about EPL, but what I have seen is that "Just on the outside, looking in" can perhaps be Spurs' second slogan?

(Guess I need to work a lot on my snark to measure up in this room...)

Abu5217 wrote:
davet010 wrote:
Abu5217 wrote:

Is there not some rule that you have to place Tottenham in 5th with every prediction? From what little I have learned of the EPL, they are always just on the outside looking in, no? :)

Both jowner and I have them 7th, my friend.

Oh, I know. As mentioned, I know very little (yet) about EPL, but what I have seen is that "Just on the outside, looking in" can perhaps be Spurs' second slogan?

(Guess I need to work a lot on my snark to measure up in this room...)

I wouldn't be surprised if lots of predictions have Spurs 5th/6th but honestly most years people overate Spurs and underrate Everton. Last year the knock on Everton was Martinez but I think hes starting to prove hes a bonafide manager. Just don't give him a top 4 job and expect much better than what Moyes did IMO.

Thing is Spurs seem to have spent their Bale piggy bank last year to questionable results and have not done much at all this year besides poaching Pochettino from Southampton. Jury is still out if hes the real deal as a manager and if anything Spurs is the exact place where if he struggles they will axe him. Which is somewhat the hilarious part. They are by no means a top 4 side and should honestly just be happy if he steers them into the top 10 and more importantly the young guys they bought last year develop and start looking like future stars. Instead they have illusions of grandeur and when they start to wobble they will probably bin him and restart the charade.

edit: since wiki is our new standard.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Tottenham_Hotspur_F.C._managers

Since 2000 they have almost had a coaching change every season. There longest recent manager has been Harry Redknapp. That says allot about their stability.

davet010 wrote:
Abu5217 wrote:

Is there not some rule that you have to place Tottenham in 5th with every prediction? From what little I have learned of the EPL, they are always just on the outside looking in, no? :)

Both jowner and I have them 7th, my friend.

As does one other person.

I rate Pochettino higher than any manager Spurs have had in my time following soccer, but they have some question marks that should keep them out of the top 4 - Will Lamela actually be played? Strikers (Kane is promising but I'd guess he'd start on the left-wing)? Why hasn't Dawson been sold because surely he won't fit in with a club that won't sit deep defensively? Playing in the Europa league won't help them but if they're fortunate Poccetino won't waste his good players in the group stage like AVB constantly did when there were bigger premier league matches on the weekend.

Jowner - I expect you would like the 'expected goals' work a couple of guys I follow on Twitter do. They basically take each shot, run it through a database, and come up with a value of what the shot is depending on how likely it was for it to go in. I'm kind of skeptical because 1) The two of them often have widely different totals from match-to-match and 2) They can't account for defensive pressure with the data publicly available. Unless something like Prozone opens their data up to the public it seems like an awful lot of work for a very, very small - if any - gain in predictability at the team level.

dave - no goal-scorers for Burnley? Did they sell Vokes (who probably won't light the world on fire mind you) and Ings (who should be good)?

In RUMUR nonsense saw Liverpool/ManCity linked with Falcao which I can't help but feel would be a mistake. Falcao has gaudy goal totals but his underlying numbers have been on the decline for a couple of seasons, he has injury issues, and about a quarter of his goals come from penalties. Newcastle apparently bid £15m for Lacazette which I'm meh on - low shot-rates mean he probably won't consistently score. If Aubemeyang could be lured instead for under £20 million that would be better business.

(thank you for indulging me in my RUMUR nonsense).

Supposed very plausible rumor is Barca in for Vermaelen for 10m. I'd take it as Wenger has been very clear that if he goes that he will strengthen at CB.

I don't want to see him go to United especially for a price of around 10m.

I'm still holding out for the dream scenario where Vlarr ends up at United

Well Denmark is rejoicing today, as both the teams in the qualifiers of the CL have made it all the way to the playoff for the group stage. Not that anyone here really expects them to go through but depending on the drawings there is a chance. I might try and go if FCK has to play Arsenal.

jowner wrote:

Supposed very plausible rumor is Barca in for Vermaelen for 10m. I'd take it as Wenger has been very clear that if he goes that he will strengthen at CB.

I don't want to see him go to United especially for a price of around 10m.

I'm still holding out for the dream scenario where Vlarr ends up at United :)

Him and song can hang out on the bench and talk about the good ol days.

bigred wrote:
jowner wrote:

Supposed very plausible rumor is Barca in for Vermaelen for 10m. I'd take it as Wenger has been very clear that if he goes that he will strengthen at CB.

I don't want to see him go to United especially for a price of around 10m.

I'm still holding out for the dream scenario where Vlarr ends up at United :)

Him and song can hang out on the bench and talk about the good ol days.

Songs been told to find another club...

jowner wrote:
bigred wrote:
jowner wrote:

Supposed very plausible rumor is Barca in for Vermaelen for 10m. I'd take it as Wenger has been very clear that if he goes that he will strengthen at CB.

I don't want to see him go to United especially for a price of around 10m.

I'm still holding out for the dream scenario where Vlarr ends up at United :)

Him and song can hang out on the bench and talk about the good ol days.

Songs been told to find another club...

Arsene Wenger has today confirmed Thomas Vermaelen is highly likely to leave Arsenal after receiving a bid from Manchester United. Wenger confirmed there was also interest from abroad, amid rumours Barcelona are in town to negotiate a deal, and would rather sell his club captain to a club not in the Premier League. Vermaelen is said to be in a position where leaving the club has now become inevitable.

Embargo on United getting a better D!

I like it.

jowner wrote:
bigred wrote:
jowner wrote:

Supposed very plausible rumor is Barca in for Vermaelen for 10m. I'd take it as Wenger has been very clear that if he goes that he will strengthen at CB.

I don't want to see him go to United especially for a price of around 10m.

I'm still holding out for the dream scenario where Vlarr ends up at United :)

Him and song can hang out on the bench and talk about the good ol days.

Songs been told to find another club...

Use case in wise career choices...

Hey Davet.

Our old farts beat your old farts.

Only if I felt as confident in the actual coming season's head to head.