2014 Midterm Election Catch-All

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I didn't want to clog up the news thread with pure politics, so I figured it was about time we had a dedicated thread about the upcoming 2014 midterms.

Leading off is the news that Representative Eric Cantor, the House Majority Leader and widely considered to be Boehner's successor as Speaker of the House, just lost his primary to an upstart Tea Party-backed challenger, David Brat. The conventional wisdom was that Brat, an economics professor, wasn't a serious challenger to Cantor and that was born out by polls last week that had Cantor leading by double-digits.

Hey, I posted that in the Tea Party thread.

Based on the analysis I'm reading from the NYT... it sounds like (though they aren't saying this) the Tea Party's racist head struck here. Cantor was seen as soft on immigration and Brat's much more hardline immigration policies may have swung this for him with rural voters.

Cantor basically sold himself to the Tea Party caucus in his House power play, and that propelled him to prominence nationally. Interesting to see how his constiutents repaid him; there's not a political machine there, but rather an ideological movement that is quite capable of eating it's own, even if it damages them in Congress.

Interesting turn of events. I wonder what impact, if any, it will have on the actual election.

As much as I despise Cantor, he was at least somewhat sane. Brat is not, and he will soon be "representing" me.

I find it hilarious that Cantor built the beast that eventually brought him down.

Dezlen wrote:

As much as I despise Cantor, he was at least somewhat sane. Brat is not, and he will soon be "representing" me.

I find it hilarious that Cantor built the beast that eventually brought him down.

Nacht der langen Messer.

Mr. Cantor, you have exhausted your utility to the cause.

Seeing some interesting predictions that with the #2 Republican in the House basically out post election that some Republicans from deeply red states are thinking of pushing for his position and possibly Boehner's.

How does this change the chances for a democrat to defeat Brat?

jigoku wrote:

How does this change the chances for a democrat to defeat Brat?

In Virginia, in a district Red enough to outst Eric Cantor, of all people? Ehhhhh.

Demosthenes wrote:
jigoku wrote:

How does this change the chances for a democrat to defeat Brat?

In Virginia, in a district Red enough to outst Eric Cantor, of all people? Ehhhhh.

I've heard cantor lost because Virginia has an open primary and a not-insignificant fraction of primary voters were democrat saboteurs. I've viewed Virginia as a purple state for the last few years; is this view unfounded? (Genuinely curious. I am a fair weather follower of politics)

I like how Brat is calling this a miracle from God. I didn't know Jesus was all about trashing the impoverished and kicking them off "your" land, Mr. Brat.

jigoku wrote:

I've heard cantor lost because Virginia has an open primary and a not-insignificant fraction of primary voters were democrat saboteurs. I've viewed Virginia as a purple state for the last few years; is this view unfounded? (Genuinely curious. I am a fair weather follower of politics)

NOVA (Northern Virginia) generally blue or purple, not sure, rural's pretty red.

You should have "Die" in front of the phrase, Paleo, Nacht is feminine. What's interesting is that the form in which the Germans use it is singular - Night of the Long Knife - while it's usually translated as plural in English. I think in German it connotes more the presence of "the knife in the dark", while in English it seems to refer more to the coordination of many related killings and arrests.

Jigoku, as far as I can tell, Cantor was demolished on his pro-immigrant stance. Is there any evidence that would support the other claim?

I daresay Democratic sabotage is only slightly more significant than voter fraud.

What are you smoking if you don't think Eric Cantor is Conservative enough? To twist Ronald Regan's quote: I did not leave the Republican Party, the Republican Party left me.

I think it's too soon to say for sure if it was being pro-immigration that took him out. If that does end up being the case it may have just been this one location that thought this way. Lindsay Graham wasn't impacted by his immigration stance. If immigration reform turns out to be a big negative with republicans I think they can say goodbye to 2016 and, potentially, significant changes in 2014.

Old white people are rapidly becoming the minority. If republicans don't recognize this and modify their approach, they're doomed. They're already dying out it's just a matter of how quickly it occurs and what they do to either speed up the process or slow it down.

JC wrote:

I think it's too soon to say for sure if it was being pro-immigration that took him out.

Perhaps. Right now people are looking for reasons why this happened and one of the only data points they have is a poll of active Virginian GOP primary voters conducted a little over a week ago that found they *really* don't like illegal immigration:

The Daily Caller Poll][/url]
Twenty-two percent tagged “jobs and economy,” and 30 percent picked “government spending and debt,” are their top issues. Voters who said jobs and spending are their top issues overwhelmingly support Cantor.

Only 9 percent of respondents in the poll said immigration was their top-most issue. Cantor’s team has flooded mailboxes with flyers saying that says he has blocked the Senate’s June 2013 rewrite of immigration laws, and that he opposes amnesty for illegals.

The poll shows that Cantor’s primary voters strongly oppose illegal immigration. Sixty-four percent said government should focus on blocking illegal immigration, while only 26 percent said the focus should be to “deal with the immigrants who are currently in the U.S. illegally.”

Only 23 percent said “there needs to be a humane way for immigrants to come out of the shadows and gain legal status.” In contrast, 33 percent support deporting “every immigrant who is in the U.S. illegally.” Forty-four percent want “something in between” legalization and complete deportation, said the poll.

Besides the "Oh SNAP" drama here, the only big effect I see is maybe killing an immigration bill?

I mean, the House isn't substantively changing and the Senate is still a right-leaning tossup.

Watching FOX News last night was interesting. The gymnastics Megyn Kelly had to go through to talk about how this proves Democrats are evil was kind of entertaining, really. Part of it was the "sabotage" as named above, but it was also about how Democrats are "crowing" about the rise of the Tea Party and the GOP becoming the party of extremists. Which, naturally, dovetailed nicely into "now that we've mentioned the word extremists, let's talk about how the Democrats are all extreme liberals".

They did mention that Lindsay Graham didn't lose his primary, and he was the guy the establishment GOP was actually worried about losing his seat to an upstart. There were some comments about how perhaps the Republican Party really just doesn't understand their voting base in the face of Tea Party challengers right now.

NormanTheIntern wrote:

Besides the "Oh SNAP" drama here, the only big effect I see is maybe killing an immigration bill?

The immigration bill was essentially DOA. Boehner has been stalling it for months because he knew that bringing it to a vote would cause a conservative revolt in the House. It was a pipe dream that people thought Boehner could bring the bill to a successful vote over the next two months, even more so with elections in November. Republicans would simply vote against it for fear of upsetting their political base, which is virulently against any "reform" that essentially doesn't start with a big ass wall and the forced deportation of anyone who's currently here.

The "oh snap" drama is more about whether or not the GOP has managed to excise the demon of the Tea Party and is ready to work with Democrats to govern our country or if the nation has to suffer through more years of having one party being represented by petulant children who scream "no" to everything and refuse to compromise on any issue.

jigoku wrote:
Demosthenes wrote:
jigoku wrote:

How does this change the chances for a democrat to defeat Brat?

In Virginia, in a district Red enough to outst Eric Cantor, of all people? Ehhhhh.

I've heard cantor lost because Virginia has an open primary and a not-insignificant fraction of primary voters were democrat saboteurs. I've viewed Virginia as a purple state for the last few years; is this view unfounded? (Genuinely curious. I am a fair weather follower of politics)

H.P. Lovesauce wrote:

I daresay Democratic sabotage is only slightly more significant than voter fraud.

Yeah. I hear about it for every open primary that I pay attention to, but there never seems to be any real evidence. It's certainly an easier pill to swallow than "my party is going nuts," though.

The "Big Deal" about this is that, per a Fox article I read, this is the first time a sitting majority leader has lost his primary. Ever. In a CNN article Gingrich is quoted as saying this is the political equivalent of an "earthquake" and that this will completely upset the GOP power structure in Washington. One conservative analysts described this primary result as the adrenaline needle scene from Pulp Fiction for the Tea Party. The grass roots anti-establishment GOP movement is now feeling reinvigorated and this could lead to a lot more challenges of sitting members who had previously been viewed as untouchable.

So, polticially and in-party, this single event is a big deal. Whether it's a big deal to the rest of the country down the road, who knows?

OG_slinger wrote:

The "oh snap" drama is more about whether or not the GOP has managed to excise the demon of the Tea Party

I think so - all the expected, serious challenges we prepared for, we won so far. This is definitely shocking, but not in a bellweather way.

and is ready to work with Democrats to govern our country or if the nation has to suffer through more years of having one party being represented by petulant children who scream "no" to everything and refuse to compromise on any issue.

I'm not sure I agree with the statement that we say no to everything, but it's not like we haven't been rewarded in the form of seat gains every election since 2008. Not sure why we should change, Teaper or Pub.

Glen Greenwald tweeted this this morning:

http://www.republicreport.org/2014/d...

Did the Tea Party swoop in and help Brat, as many in the Democratic Party are suggesting? Actually, the Wall Street Journal reports no major Tea Party or anti-establishment GOP group spent funds to defeat Cantor.

It was all about pointing out establishment corruption. If true, BOTH parties should be worried.

NormanTheIntern wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:

The "oh snap" drama is more about whether or not the GOP has managed to excise the demon of the Tea Party

I think so - all the expected, serious challenges we prepared for, we won so far. This is definitely shocking, but not in a bellweather way.

and is ready to work with Democrats to govern our country or if the nation has to suffer through more years of having one party being represented by petulant children who scream "no" to everything and refuse to compromise on any issue.

I'm not sure I agree with the statement that we say no to everything, but it's not like we haven't been rewarded in the form of seat gains every election since 2008. Not sure why we should change, Teaper or Pub.

And how has the Republican party been rewarded in terms of policy gains? Or if we're only talking about Republicans in seats of power... how did 2012 go?

PaladinTom wrote:

Glen Greenwald tweeted this this morning:

http://www.republicreport.org/2014/d...

Did the Tea Party swoop in and help Brat, as many in the Democratic Party are suggesting? Actually, the Wall Street Journal reports no major Tea Party or anti-establishment GOP group spent funds to defeat Cantor.

It was all about pointing out establishment corruption. If true, BOTH parties should be worried.

It sounds like the most prudent thing is to campaign and vote in a way that aligns with the greatest delusions of the majority of your voting constituents.

("Benghazi!")

Yeah the cash spend was amazing - Brat's quarter million(ish) to Cantor's 5.4 million.

NormanTheIntern wrote:

Yeah the cash spend was amazing - Brat's quarter million(ish) to Cantor's 5.4 million.

I may have watched too much House of Cards (on top of my already admittedly high distrust of politicians in general), but this is the bit that has me really raising my eyebrows. Something is exceptionally unusual about all of this. For a relative unknown to come out and unseat someone in Cantor's position with so little money wasted just seems wrong somehow, compared to the status quo. I mean it's possible that Virginia's conservative voters are well and truly sick enough of political doublespeak that they wanted to send a message, but I dunno. It just seems so unlikely.

Really the two situations here are that we have a one-in-a-million event happening, or someone is lying/doctoring money and results. The latter just seems way more realistic, and I'm not just saying that because it's the GOP. Hell, I'd honestly give credence to some sort of sabotage right now just because it's at least on the same level of possibility that everything happened at face value.

Bloo Driver wrote:

...with so little money wasted...

You may have nailed it right there. Who's to say they both didn't spend around the same amount where it counts?

Cantor very well may have just mis-spent several millions on hotels, dinners, etc. He's Monty Brewster!

Bloo Driver wrote:
NormanTheIntern wrote:

Yeah the cash spend was amazing - Brat's quarter million(ish) to Cantor's 5.4 million.

I may have watched too much House of Cards (on top of my already admittedly high distrust of politicians in general), but this is the bit that has me really raising my eyebrows. Something is exceptionally unusual about all of this. For a relative unknown to come out and unseat someone in Cantor's position with so little money wasted just seems wrong somehow, compared to the status quo. I mean it's possible that Virginia's conservative voters are well and truly sick enough of political doublespeak that they wanted to send a message, but I dunno. It just seems so unlikely.

Really the two situations here are that we have a one-in-a-million event happening, or someone is lying/doctoring money and results. The latter just seems way more realistic, and I'm not just saying that because it's the GOP. Hell, I'd honestly give credence to some sort of sabotage right now just because it's at least on the same level of possibility that everything happened at face value.

While Brat may not have spent a lot of money, he had the support of a lot of talking heads for the conservative radio listener, it sounds like. Having a radio personality speak so much to him against Cantor probably didn't hurt and wouldn't have costed him a cent.

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