In Which We Learn New Things About Russia

No one got my witty Kant joke.

Nomad wrote:

No one got my witty Kant joke. :(

"Are you a Mexican, or a Mexikant?"

NYT: The Russia Left Behind

An amazingly well done "travelogue" for a trip from St Petersburg to Moscow, focusing on the state of abandonement and decay in the vast regions outside of the glitzy two capitals.

Nomad wrote:

No one got my witty Kant joke. :(

(I read that as "kitty kat joke". )

Kant wrote:

Immaturity is the incapacity to use one's intelligence without the guidance of another.

If I have to provide the original quote I lose at erudite humor.

Russia's Interior Ministry Choir belts out Get Lucky:

The Moscow Times

Russia be so cray.

I love and hate Russia all at the same time. That, right there, is one of the best damn things I've ever seen in my life.

Russia's ambivalence to being gay continues!

I am genuinely a bit shocked that this thread hasn't been necromanced what with the ongoing cluster-thingy in the Ukraine.

I thought there would surely be a separate thread for protests, but I didn't go looking for that, because, to be honest, that was all too gruesome for me to write about. I have a couple of distant friends who went to take part in the protests, I was reading about it a lot when things started, but after it took a violent turn it was too much for me. (My friends, fortunately, were not there by that point.)

It pains me because I've met a lot of Ukrainians about my age, coming here to study or start their lives, and they are splendid, worldly people who are totally f*cked by not being EU citizens. Finding work in EU if you're an Ukrainian is a great ordeal and staying in Ukraine and carving out a life for yourself is often times not an option, considering an amount of corruption.

People often use that cliche, but crossing that border really is going back in time. (Starting with another ordeal that is the crossing itself, no matter which way.)

So, all in all, I try not to read news because of affinity I feel for those people. I was there last summer, hitchhiking for a bit and this year I'll try to spend more time in there. Big part of western Ukraine was Polish up until 1939 (my grandma was born in what is now Ukraine and I want to go there), so there's a lot of shared heritage in that area, even despite some serious animosities and blood-letting that happened after and before '39.

edit: Reported 35 killed today already. f*ck this, this is too much for me. f*ck you, Mr Yanukovych, and, by proxy, you, Mr Putin.

Prederick wrote:

I am genuinely a bit shocked that this thread hasn't been necromanced what with the ongoing cluster-thingy in the Ukraine.

What is going on in Kiev?

UCRC wrote:

I thought there would surely be a separate thread for protests, but I didn't go looking for that, because, to be honest, that was all too gruesome for me to write about. I have a couple of distant friends who went to take part in the protests, I was reading about it a lot when things started, but after it took a violent turn it was too much for me. (My friends, fortunately, were not there by that point.)

It pains me because I've met a lot of Ukrainians about my age, coming here to study or start their lives, and they are splendid, worldly people who are totally f*cked by not being EU citizens. Finding work in EU if you're an Ukrainian is a great ordeal and staying in Ukraine and carving out a life for yourself is often times not an option, considering an amount of corruption.

People often use that cliche, but crossing that border really is going back in time. (Starting with another ordeal that is the crossing itself, no matter which way.)

So, all in all, I try not to read news because of affinity I feel for those people. I was there last summer, hitchhiking for a bit and this year I'll try to spend more time in there. Big part of western Ukraine was Polish up until 1939 (my grandma was born in what is now Ukraine and I want to go there), so there's a lot of shared heritage in that area, even despite some serious animosities and blood-letting that happened after and before '39.

edit: Reported 35 killed today already. f*ck this, this is too much for me. f*ck you, Mr Yanukovych, and, by proxy, you, Mr Putin.

Similar here, way too close to my homeland (we share a border with Ukraine and just like Poland part of Ukraine - Transcarpathian Ruthenia - formerly belonged to Czechoslovakia). I even have a colleague who went and participated in the protests. Luckily he left some weeks ago when he got bashed by the police. What he told us sounded frighteningly like a start of the civil war.

Meanwhile the Olympics (peace, harmony, all the stuff) are in Russia.

WT, I was actually hitchhiking in that region a lot. (And in Slovakia.) Great people. And once again, it was a great chance to hear first-hand how corrupt that country is and how angry people are with the status quo.

So why do half of them want to keep Yanukovych in power? Did the Soviets transplant that many people? Or is it that Ukraine has never really been out of Russia?

How do we know that half really want to keep him?

Voting, mostly, and polls.

Robear wrote:

Voting, mostly, and polls.

I don't know if you're being sarcastic or not.

The problem with Russia and (as I understand it) the Ukraine is that there is a large chunk of the population that longs for the days of communism. When they lived in an important nation with higher employment, more structure, etc. That could definitely account for half of the population supporting the current regime. On the other hand this could be the equivalent of Hussein getting 99% of the vote.

DSGamer wrote:
Robear wrote:

Voting, mostly, and polls.

I don't know if you're being sarcastic or not.

The problem with Russia and (as I understand it) the Ukraine is that there is a large chunk of the population that longs for the days of communism. When they lived in an important nation with higher employment, more structure, etc. That could definitely account for half of the population supporting the current regime. On the other hand this could be the equivalent of Hussein getting 99% of the vote.

Ukraine is (roughly) divided into East and West, opinion-wise. East is pro-Russian, West is pro-Western. You have lack of opportunities, capital, investments etc. in the East, which makes people long for those Communist times when employment was obligatory and provided by the state. Kiev and Lvov are in the Western part and provide most of the employment and investment opportunities. The Eastern part was full of heavy industry and primary industries such as mining (Zaporoz, Dnepropetrovsk, Doneck etc.) which just got obliterated when the Iron Courtain fell - it was totally uncompetitive (Slovakia had the same problem, but Eastern Ukraine just cannot replace former heavy industry with automotive like Slovakia did - it is just too far away from "Europe" and the infrastructure is abysmal). Hence the East-West split.

Also, corruption. Big-time.

Seriously? How could demographics be sarcastic? The Parliament is dominated currently by the Party of Regions and it's allies, with about 45.9% of the vote, compared to 20% for Fatherland, the largest opposition party. There is no question that the country is split.

If you want to argue that 45.9% is not "half", that's cool, but meaningless. The situation in Ukraine is similar to that in other FSRs, where the Communist Party dominated, morphed into other parties and it's adherents still play a major role in the political process.

And I put it to you that if the vote was cooked like in Iraq, then the Party of Regions *would* hold a significant majority rather than a plurality.

It's just that Kiev, the capital where the protests are taking place, happens to be located in the Western part of the country.

Robear wrote:

So why do half of them want to keep Yanukovych in power? Did the Soviets transplant that many people? Or is it that Ukraine has never really been out of Russia?

WT's answer is one that I'd have given and I hope it is satisfactory for you.
Only general point to add, albeit hugely important one, is that trying to explain everything using "pro-Western protesters vs pro-Russian govt supporters" gradient is reductive and not very helpful.

Well, you implied you had some insight into the region. WT's answer was good, but I was reacting to the idea that there isn't really any support for the government. I don't think that's true, is it?

Robear wrote:

Well, you implied you had some insight into the region. WT's answer was good, but I was reacting to the idea that there isn't really any support for the government. I don't think that's true, is it?

Support for "good old times" = support for Yanukovich, basically. Strong ties between Yanukovich and Putin help cement his position as a "strong" leader. Moreover, Ukraine is aging rapidly due to emigration and low fertility rates, which also helps Yanukovich (because he can promise higher state pensions in a country with significant share of pensioners).

You should also know that Yanukovich has grown his own oligarchy - his son has become one of the richest Ukrainians after his father has been elected the president.

Robear wrote:

Well, you implied you had some insight into the region. WT's answer was good, but I was reacting to the idea that there isn't really any support for the government. I don't think that's true, is it?

This is yet another soft observation, but I feel that in countries like that, due to staggering weakness of institutions (in wide sense), anger and disenchantment with ruling class doesn't necessarily translate to activism or voting, rather into defeatism and well-what-did-you-expect stance.
(I think that even people who are cognizant of that phenomena don't appreciate extent of it unless they've witnessed it first-hand.)

But overall, sure, those numbers don't lie, Yanukovych has (had) plenty of supporters.

There are no "strong ties" between Putin and Yanukovich, other than those dictated by convenience of the situation and the common sense. One of the expected outcomes in Russia after Yanukovich's election was that he will let the Russians oligarchs and state-owned companies in on the privatization of immense properties still belonging to the Ukrainian state, as well as will give them preferential treatment in bids and contracts.. That didn't come to pass -- Yanukovich had his own cronies to appease, and his own homegrown oligarchs to coddle. Ukraine continues to use its transit country leverage in gas trade between Russia and the Western Europe... Ukraine competes with Russia fiercely on the international arms market.. Even at best of times, Ukraine was unwilling to join the Russia/Belarus/Kazakhstan customs union. It is hard to paint Yanukovich as a Putin's stooley. He's merely not a rabid ultra-nationalist.

Gorilla.800.lbs wrote:

There are no "strong ties" between Putin and Yanukovich, other than those dictated by convenience of the situation and the common sense. One of the expected outcomes in Russia after Yanukovich's election was that he will let the Russians oligarchs and state-owned companies in on the privatization of immense properties still belonging to the Ukrainian state, as well as will give them preferential treatment in bids and contracts.. That didn't come to pass -- Yanukovich had his own cronies to appease, and his own homegrown oligarchs to coddle. Ukraine continues to use its transit country leverage in gas trade between Russia and the Western Europe... Ukraine competes with Russia fiercely on the international arms market.. Even at best of times, Ukraine was unwilling to join the Russia/Belarus/Kazakhstan customs union. It is hard to paint Yanukovich as a Putin's stooley. He's merely not a rabid ultra-nationalist.

Do we not think that Viktor Yanukovych was poisoned by Russian spies or Russian proxies and that his opponent in the controversial elections, Yanukovich, was appointed to appease Russia? I thought this was conventional wisdom.

DSGamer wrote:

Do we not think that Viktor Yanukovych was poisoned by Russian spies or Russian proxies and that his opponent in the controversial elections, Yanukovich, was appointed to appease Russia? I thought this was conventional wisdom.

You mean Yuschenko? I do not think he was posioned by Russian spies. I think that if that's what they wanted, they'd be more efficient about it. If they wanted him dead, he would be dead, and if they wanted to intimidate him or force him out of the running, they would find a more meaningful way to do that as well. Noone really knows if he has in fact been deliberately poisoned or not, for one. But if he was, it could be an act of local saboteurs.. Their interests would, to an extent, align with those of the Russians, but that doesn't mean they're "Russian proxies". To describe the actors as as either pro-western (hence pro-reform and pro-democracy) OR pro-Russian, or corrupt OR clean is to essentially to follow the ol' hoary "our bastard / their bastard" standards of US foreign policy.

Ukraine is awash in corruption and organized crime -- both West and East. It's a cultural hallmark (like in Russia or, say, in Greece or Italy) that make take generations to abolish, if even that. There is a bitter irony in these voices that clamor for the EU path so that EU can deliver Ukraine from corruption -- because everyone concedes to the fact that Ukraine cannot do it by itself.

Gorilla.800.lbs wrote:

To describe the actors as as either pro-western (hence pro-reform and pro-democracy) OR pro-Russian, or corrupt OR clean is to essentially to follow the ol' hoary "our bastard / their bastard" standards of US foreign policy.

Yes, that is what I tried to say earlier and it's worth repeating.

I'm reading a short but insightful interview with Polish Foreign Minister who was the go-between in Yanukovych-opposition talks (along with his German counterpart) and it sounds it really did went to the wire, trying to coerce Yanukovych to stop the madness and then somehow make the opposition members agree to truce, which proved even more difficult.

From what I'm reading on the Maidan side there are still elements which are gearing up for Ceausescu type of resolution.