NFL 2012 Draft Thread

A few of my wild 'n crazy predictions:

Minnesota will not take OT Matt Kalil. They will take Morris Claiborne.

Cleveland will take Trent Richardson

Kalil will fall to #5, Tampa Bay

The Rams will not take Justin Blackmon, but rather DT Fletcher Cox

WR Michael Floyd will come off the board before Blackmon

CB Stephen Gilmore will go top 10, possibly to J'ville.

Tannehill will be way overdrafted at #8, to Miami

Stanford TE Coby Fleener will be way underdrafted in the late 1st, and I think he'll be a steal.

Jeff-66 wrote:

A few of my wild 'n crazy predictions:

Minnesota will not take OT Matt Kalil. They will take Morris Claiborne.

Cleveland will take Trent Richardson

Kalil will fall to #5, Tampa Bay

SETTING YOU ON FIRE WITH MY MIND AM I.

The Vikings taking Kalil is really the only vaguely sane move; their offensive line is in tatters, and if you want your young QB to have anything resembling a chance, you get him a tackle. Elite tackles are one of the hardest things to come by, and it's Minnesota's most glaring need. Tampa's RT is pretty crappy, but they have a perfectly good LT in Donald Penn. Now, if this scenario does happen, I'd like to believe there's somebody out there who craves Kalil or Blackmon, and Tampa can trade down to maybe get Gilmore a bit later, or even Kuechly or Barron to help fill the voids at LB or S. That being said, this does seem like a draft where the top range of picks really almost perfectly fit into the different teams' needs, and the general 1-6 picks that seem to be agreed on are pretty darn likely.

Well there's every chance that I suck at predicting the future, and that everything I listed will be wrong. But there ya go. I'd heard Kalil to MN was carved in stone, but now I keep reading where they are waffling.

Also, I just read that M.Floyd has had three off-the-field alcohol related incidents, including a DUI, so that may knock him down some, but I think he's better than Blackmon.

I think it's pretty clear MN wants to trade down to get more picks, but nobody wants to move up. The top six players seem pretty clearly defined in terms of ability and team needs, and I think that makes it harder to trade this year. If you're the Vikings, you NEED a tackle. If you're the Browns, you NEED a back and a guy who can energize your franchise. Tampa and St. Louis both have pretty desperate needs for CB and WR respectively.

The big problem with Minnesota trading out of "the Kalil spot" is that most teams in the top portion of the draft don't really need a tackle that badly. Cleveland, Tampa, Jacksonville, and Miami are all pretty set at that position, and St. Louis and Carolina don't have screaming needs, as they have positions they need even more. Blackmon isn't generating the kind of buzz that's going to make anybody jump up to #3, Richardson's a victim of "RB devaluation syndrome", and there are several CBs out there that many people are rating around the same as Claiborne. I just don't think there's really going to be a market for the Vikings' pick, and it seems like what they're doing is really hoping that somebody falls in love with Tannehill enough to move up. Don't see it happening.

Minnesota's offensive line was just godawful last year, and they've lost both starting guards IIRC, so it's even weaker. They need a tackle like Indy needs a QB; it's the most blatant, massive need. If Minnesota stays at #3 and passes on Kalil . . . wow, that would be a pretty seemingly crazy decision.

I agree with Milkman for the most part. However, if I'm St. Louis, and Minnesota is waving around pick #3, I would be on the phone finding out what it would take to move up from #6.

If my quarterback is as fragile as Sam Bradford, I am in the tackle market. Jason Smith is officially a concussion case. He's no longer in my long-term plans. Rodger Saffold is, but he can be in my plans at right tackle.

That said, Minnesota actually played Charlie Johnson for 16 games at left tackle. To get worse than that, they'd have to go get Guy Whimper. Kalil and the Vikings' #3 pick are about as bright shining of a case of "need meets value" as you can get.

*Legion* wrote:

I agree with Milkman for the most part. However, if I'm St. Louis, and Minnesota is waving around pick #3, I would be on the phone finding out what it would take to move up from #6.

If my quarterback is as fragile as Sam Bradford, I am in the tackle market. Jason Smith is officially a concussion case. He's no longer in my long-term plans. Rodger Saffold is, but he can be in my plans at right tackle.

Saffold's been solid enough at RT that they can try flipping him to the left side; sure, it's great theoretically to pick up Kalil, but they've got such huge needs at CB and WR that I'd expect them to fill those slots first. Just bigger needs. I did listen to Bill Simmons' podcast today with Mike Lombardi, and they had the idea that the Rams should trade up to #3 for Richardson to replace Steven Jackson. In that scenario, there's still a pretty good chance the Vikings can get Kalil at #6. Interesting idea.

That said, Minnesota actually played Charlie Johnson for 16 games at left tackle. To get worse than that, they'd have to go get Guy Whimper. Kalil and the Vikings' #3 pick are about as bright shining of a case of "need meets value" as you can get.

Yeah, this, and "need meets value" really seems to fall about perfectly for the first six picks, and it's really the first time I can remember that happening. Also, regarding the Vikings, remember that AP is coming off a blown ACL. He's not going to be the same player this year (if ever), and he's completely carried a lousy offense for a couple years. If you don't have the LBs and safeties on the defense worrying about AP blowing through whatever hole on the line is there, you have an even more desperate need for that tackle. I really can't imagine a scenario where the Vikings pass on Kalil. If they do, I will find whatever Vegas casino offers weird bets and put about five grand on "Christian Ponder dies on the field by week seven".

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

I really can't imagine a scenario where the Vikings pass on Kalil. If they do, I will find whatever Vegas casino offers weird bets and put about five grand on "Christian Ponder dies on the field by week seven".

Are you kidding? This is the team that, if I recall correctly, forgot to pick two years in a row.

Enix wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

The whole Loomis story doesn't even vaguely add up. What good would that do? Who would even want to hear that stuff?

This. It stretches the bounds of believability ...

If the Saints were recording the feed and matching up with the game tape ... OK, that I get. But that's not alleged here. So why? It's not like he's calling plays from up there.

The wiretapping charge, though, could be serious if the feds choose to pursue it. The last thing the Saints want is the Feebs to be poking around in their business. They've got enough headaches with the league office.

I heard that the statute of limitations on illegal wiretapping is 5 years, so if 2004 was the last year it took place, the government would have no case.

*Legion* wrote:
Enix wrote:

Cam Newton and Andy Dalton missed the same OTAs and training camp Gabbert did. That's lame. Also, Newton is only 5 months older than Gabbert, and he had half as many seasons of D1 ball before he went pro.

Both Newton and Dalton etc. etc. etc.

You know any mention of Gabbert is just throwing me a big fat slab of raw red meat, right?

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

I think it's pretty clear MN wants to trade down to get more picks, but nobody wants to move up. ... and St. Louis and Carolina don't have screaming needs.

If anything, Carolina will be the one looking to trade down. They're not looking to go up, as they sunk a bunch of money into Newton and several vets last year and don't have the cash to throw at a No. 3 overall pick. Plus Carolina is lacking a third-round pick this season. (They traded it to get Greg Olsen. I think that worked out well.)

Then again, Carolina is probably OK at 9. Conventional wisdom says they'll go D, and there should be 2-3 players out there that the Panthers would like at the ninth spot.

I mentioned this on twitter but is anyone else worried that Rat Boy hasn't been posting anything? Does anyone know if he's okay? Or maybe possibly finally found true love with a girl who listens to his bad fantasy football advice?

Also, Seahawks will rock during the draft and will take someone unexpected. I hope their draft hat has like two bills or some other such stupid Nike "innovation."

Elliottx wrote:

I mentioned this on twitter but is anyone else worried that Rat Boy hasn't been posting anything? Does anyone know if he's okay? Or maybe possibly finally found true love with a girl who listens to his bad fantasy football advice?

Also, Seahawks will rock during the draft and will take someone unexpected. I hope their draft hat has like two bills or some other such stupid Nike "innovation."

Glad you brought this up I was just going to post something about Ratboy

Umm....49ers SUCK ALL THEIR FANS SUCK TOO!!!! SF GIANTS ARE TERRIBLE TOO HOLY CRAP.

I, too, am concerned where Ratboy has been. He was the first member of GWJ not associated with the original site crew.

His last Twitter update was in December. The most recent post I have been able to find was February 1st.

Jayhawker wrote:

His last Twitter update was in December. The most recent post I have been able to find was February 1st.

His xbox live profile was last online 4/21. I sent him a friend request.

I flipped on ESPN while eating a sandwich today, and was assured by a very confident reporter that, assuming Luck-RG3-Kalil go 1-2-3, Cleveland is very likely to take Trent Richardson, Morris Claiborne, or Justin Blackmon.

STOP THE PRESSES.

Jets possibly preparing to make a move for Trent Richardson.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

I flipped on ESPN while eating a sandwich today, and was assured by a very confident reporter that, assuming Luck-RG3-Kalil go 1-2-3, Cleveland is very likely to take Trent Richardson, Morris Claiborne, or Justin Blackmon.

STOP THE PRESSES.

They had a ten minute segment where they pretended to talk on the phone. I hate ESPN.

AtH and PTI are off for two days for pre-draft and draft coverage...

PTI even opened today poking fun at ESPN and their lack of draft coverage, and how they weren't sure who the first picks were going to be.

I have come to the conclusion I'm perfectly fine with the Vikings taking Claiborne from a Bucs perspective; it means Kalil will still be there, and it seems likely a team like Buffalo or Arizona would then try to jump up to get him. Tampa slides down, can still get a corner, Barron, or Kuechly.

Of course, if Tampa trades up to #3 for Richardson, I will set myself on fire.

NFL.com's top 5 myths you should not believe:

1. Jets are making a play for Richardson -- they say dismiss this as misinformation.

2. Vikings will pass on Kalil -- false, they say. "it's merely a smokescreen designed to generate a trade market for the Vikings' pick"

3. Brandon Wheeden is too old to be a franchise QB -- "I don't believe it will be a significant issue on draft day"

4. Michael Floyd is surpassing J.Blackmon on the boards -- don't bet on it.

5. The trade market is hot for Ryan Tannehill within the top 10 -- they say it's even possible that Miami may pass on him, and that he could take a significant drop.

Well, I'm pumped up for tonight. Should be very interesting, starting with the 4th pick, and possibly the 3rd.

Jeff-66 wrote:

3. Brandon Wheeden is too old to be a franchise QB -- "I don't believe it will be a significant issue on draft day"

No, his age won't be the issue. His throws will be.

Let's put it this way - anyone drafting Weeden to be their franchise QB better put a lot of 7-yard slants into their offensive packages.

I watched some more Justin Blackmon video this week and I was put off by how often Blackmon had to slow down and adjust to off-target throws. It was a plus for Blackmon's evaluation but a negative mark on Weeden's. (Half of Blackmon's video, of course, was well targeted 7-yard slants. It seems like that's the only pattern OK State cared to attempt most of the time.)

Are we taking over IRC tonight?

garion333 wrote:

Are we taking over IRC tonight?

If so, somebody post a link/connection info, as I haven't bothered with IRC since . . . well, last draft night.

Also, if Weeden can only really throw the seven-yard slant, he needs to be drafted by the Browns. That way, nobody will have to adjust their play styles whether or not he or Colt McCoy is playing.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Also, if Weeden can only really throw the seven-yard slant, he needs to be drafted by the Browns. That way, nobody will have to adjust their play styles whether or not he or Colt McCoy is playing.

Weeden's got enough arm to throw downfield, but he just doesn't deliver them well.

Weeden has real problems when the pocket breaks down. OK State throws slants, drags, and hooks all day long, and Weeden happily feasted on those, particularly with a physical receiver like Blackmon perpetually out-classing whomever had to line up 1-on-1 with him. When tasked to throw downfield, Weeden's delivery left much to be desired. Sure, there were some easy lofts against blown coverage, but watching for NFL throws, there weren't a whole lot of them forthcoming.

Tannehill at least threw in an offense that ran outs and deep comebacks all game. The throws Tannehill delivered were NFL throws. Few teams attacked the sidelines NFL style the way Mike Sherman's offense did at A&M.

I would absolutely ask New England what it would cost to take either Mallett or Hoyer off their hands before pursuing Weeden. I definitely can't imagine what goes through some team's mind if they go for Weeden in round 1.

4. Michael Floyd is surpassing J.Blackmon on the boards -- don't bet on it.

I'm a Notre Dame guy, but I wouldn't take Floyd over Blackmon. Floyd disappears a bit too often in games as teams targeted keeping him out of the picture, whereas Blackmon seemed to power through that.

On the other hand, maybe it was all the slants...

So, are we going to have to wait through both the Colts and Redskins allotted time before the Vikings are on the clock or are they going to be sensible?

iaintgotnopants wrote:

So, are we going to have to wait through both the Colts and Redskins allotted time before the Vikings are on the clock or are they going to be sensible?

Based on past history, isn't it likely we'll have to wait through the Colts, Redskins, Vikings, and Browns time before the Vikings bother to get their card in?

Regarding Weeden/Blackmon - when they came to A&M last year, I was expecting to be amazed by Blackmon athletically catching long balls down the field. I don't know if he caught anything longer than ten yards all game (but he caught the short passes very consistently). I don't know if that was him or Weeden. Was I wrong in thinking Blackmon was a true WR? He played like a slot receiver that day, and in fact caught shorter passes than our slot guy (Ryan Swope, Tannehill's favorite target - look for him next year).

In other Aggie news, both Cyrus Gray (RB) and Jeff Fuller (WR) had much better junior years than senior. Cyrus had an amazing, game-breaking junior year. Fuller is a physical specimen who can play deep and reel in some really athletic catches, but didn't seem highly motivated last year. I think both those guys would have done better in terms of draft position if drafted last year.

I thought to myself, "it's draft day, I should check to see if there's a thread in here on that."

I sometimes forget that I'm an idiot and that *Legion* has probably been thinking about this for as long as I think about Amy Pond.

I'm stuck with ESPN and no NFL Network at my sister's house. Man, they sure are a one trick pony. How long can they say the same things over and over again? Oh, all day long. Meh.