NFL 2011 Conference Championship Round

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Wow, just...wow.

Saints 32 - 49ers 36: The headlines practically wrote themselves. "The Run;" that's what they'd be calling Alex Smith's touchdown dash. Then New Orleans had the temerity to take the lead again mere seconds later. San Fransisco will gladly settle on adding "The Catch 3" into the pantheon of great football moments.

Tebows 10 - Patriots 45: Tim Tebow's biggest detractors were the ones lining up against him and for now, the detractors have the last laugh. And CBS must be banging their heads against the wall. On paper this should have been the highest rated game of Saturday, but it was over five minutes into it.

Texans 13 - Ravens 20: Not all that unsurprising save for the fact that both Harbaugh brothers will be playing again on Sunday. Honestly, if you're a fan of Houston you must be beating yourself over the head wondering what might have been had it been Matt Schaub instead of TJ Yates lining up under center.

Giants 37 - Packers 20: Mad Eli in Beyond Lambeau Field? One definitely gets the road warrior vibe from New York, but...no, saving that for the predictions below.

Conference Round Pick 'Em: There were two upsets this weekend and only two of you picked both the Niners and the G-Men to pull it off. As for the the whole deal:

My record: 3-1

Your records:

Gumbie: 4-0
garion333: 4-0

Psych: 3-1
thejustinbot: 3-1
Jayhawker: 3-1
oldmanscene23: 3-1
boogle: 3-1
Kush15: 3-1
Stele: 3-1

Paleocon: 2-2
MilkmanDanimal: 2-2
iaintgotnopants: 2-2
Certis: 2-2
Elliottx: 2-2
Secret Asian Man: 2-2
Minase: 2-2
bighoppa: 2-2
bennard: 2-2
tboon: 2-2
LeapingGnome: 2-2

Xeknos: 1-3
TempestBlayze: 1-3
ZellbrigeN26: 1-3
DaScorpion: 1-3

Coobeans: 0-4
Fedaykin98: 0-4

And playoff to date totals:

My record: 5-3

Your records:

garion333: 7-1
thejustinbot: 7-1

Psych: 6-2
Gumbie: 6-2

Certis: 5-3
Minase: 5-3
Elliottx: 5-3
bighoppa: 5-3
Secret Asian Man: 5-3
tboon: 5-3
Stele: 5-3
Kush15: 5-3
boogle: 5-3

Xeknos: 4-4
TempestBlayze: 4-4
Paleocon: 4-4
MilkmanDanimal: 4-4
LeapingGnome: 4-4
iaintgotnopants: 4-4
oldmanscene24: 4-4

Fedaykin98: 3-5

Jayhawker: 3-5

TheGameguru: 2-6*

* = I gave you credit for Manning up and swallowing your pride.

Gee, I wonder what games are being played this Sunday? Anyway, to keep things balanced, both games count for two. Get 'em both right, you go 4-0. Simple, yes? Here goes:

Ravens at Patriots, 3:00 ET, CBS: Remember the sole stat I quoted in the Ravens' favor last week? Their home record? Well, their road record is a mere 4-4 while by the same token New England does have one loss at Foxboro. Still, there's the simple fact that the postseason is the season of defense, but can any defense keep Brady and company in check for four quarters? This is where we find out once and for all if Joe Flacco is a playoff caliber quarterback, but I just don't see it happening. Patriots.

Giants at 49ers, 6:30 ET, FOX: Must have been difficult for San Francisco on Sunday watching the late game, faced with the prospect of either going to Lambeau Field or having one of the hottest road teams come to Candlestick. They say that New York got good at the right time, but on the other hand the Niners have been this good all season. At home with a defense that shrugged off the best from a viable candidate for MVP? Who do you think I'm going with? who's got it better than us? Noooooo-body!
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...er...Niners. I'll leave the room now.

Ravens at Patriots: The Patriots are consistently good on offense, the Ravens are incredibly inconsistent. If Good Joe Flacco shows up, I can see the Ravens winning, but he doesn't show up much. So, home team.

Giants at 49ers: I've had to swallow years of mockery and stop making fun of Eli Manning this year.

Everybody vs. Tebow Hype: WE ALL WON SATURDAY NIGHT.

I'm calling Ravens over the Patriots and 49ers over the Giants. The Niners have been underdogs all season and watching Manning on Sunday, when he was pressured he made a lot of mistakes and the Niners D is going to pressure him like he hasn't been pressured.

Go Niners!!!!!

I'm going with my heart and not my head.

Ravens at Patriots: Ravens.
Giants at 49ers: Niners

I really want a Harbaugh Bowl. That and I don't think teams with one dimensional, offense only horserace attacks should be rewarded for neglecting the defensive side of the ball. I'm glad to see that the NFC successfully weeded them out (along with dome teams). It's up to the Ravens to put an end to that scourge on the AFC side.

Ravens at Patriots: Question: How many teams with winning records did the Patriots beat this year? Answer: Zero. And two of the three games they lost, well, those teams had winning records. While I'm not going to jump on a Joe Flacco bandwagon, I'll get on the Ray Rice bus and say that the Ravens offense will be much more explosive against the Patriots horrendous defense as they don't have a top flight CB to blanket Torrey Smith all game. Also, Flacco ain't Tebow. Ravens.

Giants at 49ers: Whoa boy. This is a tough one to call. I think I have to give the 49ers the edge at home and a defense that should slow down the Giants running game and make them completely one dimensional.

Ravens at Patriots: Depends on which Ravens team shows up. If it is any worse than the team that showed up Sunday, the Patriots will win. I personally think however, with the AFC Championship on the line and the close win last Sunday, The "good" Ravens will show up and come out the victor. Ravens

Giants at 49ers: This one is going to be a good one. I have to wonder how Smith is going to handle that pass rush by the Giants. I think the Niners D will keep the Gmen in check. Its going to be close but I think the home team will continue on. Niners

Superbowl is shaping up to be a Harbowl. Who the parents going to root for?

Patriots
Giants

(I can't believe I went 0-4 last week! Talk about picking the wrong upsets.)

Easy week.

49ers
Patriots

Packers and Falcons beat themselves. The 49ers got to where they are by never beating themselves. The Giants are good, but they won't get any gifts this week.

Tom Brady is in a groove and focused as hell. He will outscore a really cruddy Ravens offense.

Gregg Williams is now the DC in St. Louis. Will the coaching staff there end up being a bunch of over the hill coaches and coordinators?

Okay, I asked that just to get a rise out of someone.

garion333 wrote:

Gregg Williams is now the DC in St. Louis. Will the coaching staff there end up being a bunch of over the hill coaches and coordinators?

Okay, I asked that just to get a rise out of someone.

Ask that about the Jayhawks' new staff and you might get a reaction from me.

Ravens and 49ers.
Harbaugh bowl 2: The re-Harbaughing.

Patriots
Giants

Rat Boy wrote:

Conference Round Pick 'Em: There were two upsets this weekend and only two of you picked both the Niners and the G-Men to pull it off.

Should have put my money where my mouth was.

Harbaugh bowl! Defense wins championships, and so on. Not much more to say.
Ravens
Niners

Ravens
Giants

Also, I should be 6-2, not 7-1, missed one game each week.

Listening to a podcast today that made me think. They were talking about Flacco and how while he isn't great, his receivers are never open. So any throws he makes have to be perfect.

thejustinbot wrote:

Ravens
Giants

Also, I should be 6-2, not 7-1, missed one game each week.

Listening to a podcast today that made me think. They were talking about Flacco and how while he isn't great, his receivers are never open. So any throws he makes have to be perfect.

Wasn't that the matchup in 2000 when the Ravens won the Superbowl?

I just realized that New England only played two teams in the regular season with winning records and lost to both of them. And their only playoff game this year was against the team with the worst record.

I wonder if that should figure into the stat analysis.

Paleocon wrote:
thejustinbot wrote:

Ravens
Giants

Also, I should be 6-2, not 7-1, missed one game each week.

Listening to a podcast today that made me think. They were talking about Flacco and how while he isn't great, his receivers are never open. So any throws he makes have to be perfect.

Wasn't that the matchup in 2000 when the Ravens won the Superbowl?

Yup, though if you want to draw a comparison from Joe Flacco to Trent Dilfer you're taking it much too far. If we're talking teams, then yes.

Ravens
Giants

I hardly follow well enough to sufficiently argue one team over another, but from what I've seen - I'll cast my vote as:

Patriots
Giants

Paleocon wrote:

I just realized that New England only played two teams in the regular season with winning records and lost to both of them. And their only playoff game this year was against the team with the worst record.

I wonder if that should figure into the stat analysis.

That's kind of a misleading stat because the act of New England beating them factored into their overall record. They played and beat six teams that finished 8-8. If they had lost one of their games to the Jets then they would've beaten a winning team

That's not to say they had a difficult schedule. I think they had the easiest schedule record-wise coming into the season, and with the collapse of Indy I'm sure they ended up with the easiest one as well.

Ravens
Giants

Ravens at Patriots: Unless the Ravens play a perfect game, I feel like the Patriots will win.
Giants at 49ers: I'm really looking forward to this game, I know the Giants are good on the road but have to go home team in a draw.

Ravens
Niners

More people picking against the Giants this time around. Before I would be glad, now that worries me

Should be two really good matchups on Sunday.

Koz wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

I just realized that New England only played two teams in the regular season with winning records and lost to both of them. And their only playoff game this year was against the team with the worst record.

I wonder if that should figure into the stat analysis.

That's kind of a misleading stat because the act of New England beating them factored into their overall record. They played and beat six teams that finished 8-8. If they had lost one of their games to the Jets then they would've beaten a winning team

That's not to say they had a difficult schedule. I think they had the easiest schedule record-wise coming into the season, and with the collapse of Indy I'm sure they ended up with the easiest one as well.

Only slightly.

They had a ridiculously soft schedule and basically coasted their way to the Championship game. The only times they were really tested were against Buffalo, Pittsburgh and the Giants. And they only faced 6 teams with reasonable defenses (mostly with no offense to match).

They may very well end up on top this weekend, but I think the talk about NE being a dominating team is a bit much. If the Ravens, Steelers, or Texans had had that schedule, I have no doubt they all would have had a better than average shot at being the #1 seed.

Patriots / Giants

Much as it pains me to admit the Giants are hot right now. They're playing well on both ends.

97.5, The Fanatic in Philadelphia (you would have thought they would name it "The Phanatic") had some host stating that out of Eli Manning, Michael Vick, and Alex Smith, that Alex Smith would be the guy he would rather have on his team.

Really? OK, sure, Alex Smith has the potential to do what he did this year again next year. He also has the potential to revert back to what he was the last 6 years. Don't get me wrong, I think Alex Smith has had the raw deal with 7 different offensive coordinators during his career, but can we be a little more realistic? There's only 3 truly Elite QB in the NFL: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees. There's guys that are trying to knock on that doorstep: Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning (winning #2 would put him at the doorstep, IMO). Alex Smith is YEARS away from either one of those groups. Can he get there, sure, I won't discount that, but I don't see how anyone can put him there now.

With that said, I'm not counting him out of beating the Giants this weekend, it will be a really good game.

I'm really looking forward to this week's games, but I am not sure either of them will compare to last week's 49ers/Saints game.

It is also one of those rare weeks that there aren't any teams I'm specifically rooting for. Over on the NFC side, I'd be thrilled with either team winning. On the one side you have the 49ers with the feel good comeback story of Alex Smith coached by Captain Comeback himself. Harbaugh is always welcome in Indianapolis. On the the other side you have the Peyton's little brother Eli who was well liked around town even before he took down the undefeated Patriots. Add in Tom Coughlin who I feel has always been under appreciated, and I would personally be quite happy with either NFC team winning.

Over on the AFC side, it is Darth Hoodie and our rivals the Patriots versus the Baltimore Ravens. As far as teams go I'd rather see Baltimore win as it is always nice seeing the Pats go down. However, that would mean the Baltimore fanbase would be coming to town. While I quite like the Ravens team, their fans can't seem to let the past go even after they stole a new team to replace their old one and many of them are insufferable when they come to town. (Definitely not all, just some). On the flip side, Patriots fans have honestly always kept it classy when they come to town. Even when they were in town and lost in heartbreaking fashion to a 4th quarter comeback in the 2006 AFC championship game, they kept it classy. For the most part Patriots/Colts has been one of those rivalries built on mutual respect and not on any actual "hate" for either side. (with some exceptions)

Paleocon wrote:
Koz wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

I just realized that New England only played two teams in the regular season with winning records and lost to both of them. And their only playoff game this year was against the team with the worst record.

I wonder if that should figure into the stat analysis.

That's kind of a misleading stat because the act of New England beating them factored into their overall record. They played and beat six teams that finished 8-8. If they had lost one of their games to the Jets then they would've beaten a winning team

That's not to say they had a difficult schedule. I think they had the easiest schedule record-wise coming into the season, and with the collapse of Indy I'm sure they ended up with the easiest one as well.

Only slightly.

They had a ridiculously soft schedule and basically coasted their way to the Championship game. The only times they were really tested were against Buffalo, Pittsburgh and the Giants. And they only faced 6 teams with reasonable defenses (mostly with no offense to match).

They may very well end up on top this weekend, but I think the talk about NE being a dominating team is a bit much. If the Ravens, Steelers, or Texans had had that schedule, I have no doubt they all would have had a better than average shot at being the #1 seed.

On the flip side the Ravens D has not really been tested. They have not beat a team with a top 10 good offense.

Edited: Because depending on what stats you look at the Raiders could sneak into the 10 spot.

EvilDead wrote:

On the flip side the Ravens D has not really been tested. They have not beat a team with a top 10 good offense.

Edited: Because depending on what stats you look at the Raiders could sneak into the 10 spot.

Houston had the #2 rushing attack in the NFL this season. While our passing offense was middle of the road (#18), that was with our top receiver missing nine games. With Andre Johnson, I would argue the Texans are well into top ten territory. The Ravens D did an outstanding job of creating turnovers and giving Flacco chances to score. I expect more of the same from them this weekend. I would hate to have the Texans lose to a team that then lost to the Patriots crap D, although Gronkowski (yes, that is a complete thought).

Ravens over Pats
49ers over Giants in a coin flip.

bighoppa wrote:

The Ravens D did an outstanding job of creating turnovers and Jacoby Jones and TJ Yates made stupid mistakes, giving Flacco chances to score.

FTFY. Texans defense shutdown the Ravens offense for the most part. Jacoby Jones had no business fielding that punt once it bounced. You either have to fair catch it in the air, or let the fates decide where the ball stops. TJ Yates, still had a chance to send the game into OT, where I believe, IMO, the Texans would have won that game. With the ball around midfield at the 2 minute warning, I don't understand throwing a HR ball to Andre Johnson in double coverage. Granted, there was still enough time to get the ball back with 40 seconds to play, but the Texans had some nice momentum going into the 2 minute warning, only to have Yates piss it all away on one throw. With two timeouts, the coaching staff should have had some run plays ready, and take the clock down, so the Ravens couldn't win the game in regulation had the Texans tied the score. I think Yates could be a good QB in the future, it's too bad he'll go back to backing up Schaub next season. Texans should be glad though that they have a battle tested backup should Schaub go down again. I would have loved to see a Texans Super Bowl this year, and would have rooted for them against anyone, with the exception of the Giants

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