NFL 2011 Wild Card Playoff Round

Kush15 wrote:
jowner wrote:

That said I think the best 3 teams going into the playoffs are on the NFC side.

The Thanksgiving Harbaugh Bowl proves that otherwise. I would wedge Baltimore inbetween New Orleans and San Fran.

I can't remember which one wins Superbowls. Is it offense or defense?

Paleocon wrote:
Kush15 wrote:
jowner wrote:

That said I think the best 3 teams going into the playoffs are on the NFC side.

The Thanksgiving Harbaugh Bowl proves that otherwise. I would wedge Baltimore inbetween New Orleans and San Fran.

I can't remember which one wins Superbowls. Is it offense or defense?

It used to be defense. Now? I don't know if that's still true. Legion's boy Vic points out the top two seeds in the AFC and NFC both have elite QBs and the lowest ranked defenses. Polianball

Paleocon wrote:
Kush15 wrote:
jowner wrote:

That said I think the best 3 teams going into the playoffs are on the NFC side.

The Thanksgiving Harbaugh Bowl proves that otherwise. I would wedge Baltimore inbetween New Orleans and San Fran.

I can't remember which one wins Superbowls. Is it offense or defense?

I thought it was punters.

Compared to previous years I'm not sure if theres an elite defense left in the NFL but that might be more because of the current rules if anything.

Phishposer wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
Kush15 wrote:
jowner wrote:

That said I think the best 3 teams going into the playoffs are on the NFC side.

The Thanksgiving Harbaugh Bowl proves that otherwise. I would wedge Baltimore inbetween New Orleans and San Fran.

I can't remember which one wins Superbowls. Is it offense or defense?

It used to be defense. Now? I don't know if that's still true. Legion's boy Vic points out the top two seeds in the AFC and NFC both have elite QBs and the lowest ranked defenses. Polianball :P

Defense is dead.

The NFL has combined the Polian rule influences with a War on Concussions, and the result is the biggest explosion of passing offense ever.

Field position as a concept is eroding in the modern NFL. The game is becoming more like college football overtime - two teams taking turns scoring.

Offenses have thrown down the gauntlet. Can defensive coordinators adapt and bring things back down to earth, or is this the "new normal"?

IMAGE(http://i234.photobucket.com/albums/ee317/elliottx/Playoffs.jpg) provided by Advanced NFL Stats

For curiosity sake I wondered whether it was just the elite offenses that made it into the playoffs or if the elite defenses were there too. The red circled teams are the ones in the playoffs, had the Jets not choked this would have really made it clear that the elite defenses make it into the playoffs too. It also makes me think that the Lions aren't getting the respect they deserve for having a well-rounded team. The elite offenses are really elite, while the elite defenses are just "better" then their respective brethren.

These playoffs will be a case of elite offense vs elite defense and it will finally answer the question of which one wins championships...that is until next year when the debate starts all over again.

Elliottx wrote:

IMAGE(http://i234.photobucket.com/albums/ee317/elliottx/Playoffs.jpg) provided by Advanced NFL Stats

For curiosity sake I wondered whether it was just the elite offenses that made it into the playoffs or if the elite defenses were there too. The red circled teams are the ones in the playoffs, had the Jets not choked this would have really made it clear that the elite defenses make it into the playoffs too. It also makes me think that the Lions aren't getting the respect they deserve for having a well-rounded team. The elite offenses are really elite, while the elite defenses are just "better" then their respective brethren.

These playoffs will be a case of elite offense vs elite defense and it will finally answer the question of which one wins championships...that is until next year when the debate starts all over again.

Haha look at the Bucs down in the corner by themselves?

Just imagine where the Jags would've ranked without MJD.

garion333 wrote:

Just imagine where the Jags would've ranked without MJD.

MJD did all that while perpetually sledding against defenses stacked against the run.

The Jag line was excellent at run blocking this year, but there were never wide-open running lanes, because defenses were always up close and personal.

As far as I'm concerned, when it comes to running backs in the NFL, there's MJD and AP, and then there's everyone else. How Ray Rice is the AFC Pro Bowl starter instead of MJD is beyond me. Rice is good - really good - but put him against the fronts MJD ran against and you'd cut a good 1/3rd off of his numbers.

*Legion* wrote:

How Ray Rice is the AFC Pro Bowl starter instead of MJD is beyond me.

As my fantasy team can attest, Rice caught a lot of passes too. How are his combined yards vs MJD?

Eh just checked NFL.com. Rice 129 per game, MJD 123 per game. There you go. Plus the better team record sometimes helps that pro bowl stuff too.

Stele wrote:

Eh just checked NFL.com. Rice 129 per game, MJD 123 per game. There you go. Plus the better team record sometimes helps that pro bowl stuff too. ;)

I don't think the team's record should have anything to do with the Pro Bowl. If a player is playing at that high a level it's sort of irrelevant that the rest of his team's offense is non-existent. He's still the better player.

I would argue heavily that if you switch those players out and put MJD at Baltimore and Ray Rice at Jacksonville you see Ray Rice's numbers decrease heavily and MJD's go even higher. MJD did what he did this season on a team that essentially had no other offense. He was it.

How Ray Rice is the AFC Pro Bowl starter instead of MJD is beyond me. Rice is good - really good - but put him against the fronts MJD ran against and you'd cut a good 1/3rd off of his numbers

60% of the time.. it works everytime.

Thin_J made my point. MJD's 123 yards a game came against defenses who had zero concerns except MJD. The Jags were the dead-last, 32nd ranked passing game. There was nothing close to a Torrey Smith or an Anquan Boldin, let alone both of them, for defenses to be concerned about.

And of course, there are things beyond the numbers. MJD is a much stronger short-yardage back - Ray Rice sat those plays out while Ricky Williams fought for the tough yards.

Ray Rice is also an awful pass blocker - least effective pass blocking RB in the league by Pro Football Focus's 2010 metrics, while MJD is among the top 15. (They haven't compiled a 2011 article yet, but from their raw chart rankings, Rice is still near the bottom of the league while MJD is still very high).

*Legion* wrote:

Thin_J made my point. MJD's 123 yards a game came against defenses who had zero concerns except MJD. The Jags were the dead-last, 32nd ranked passing game. There was nothing close to a Torrey Smith or an Anquan Boldin, let alone both of them, for defenses to be concerned about.

And of course, there are things beyond the numbers. MJD is a much stronger short-yardage back - Ray Rice sat those plays out while Ricky Williams fought for the tough yards.

Ray Rice is also an awful pass blocker - least effective pass blocking RB in the league by Pro Football Focus's 2010 metrics, while MJD is among the top 15. (They haven't compiled a 2011 article yet, but from their raw chart rankings, Rice is still near the bottom of the league while MJD is still very high).

That's what Vonta Leach is for.

Paleocon wrote:

That's what Vonta Leach is for.

Only once in a great while - 12 carries on the year, 0 TDs. Definitely not the go-to goal-line back.

*Legion* wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

That's what Vonta Leach is for.

Only once in a great while - 12 carries on the year, 0 TDs. Definitely not the go-to goal-line back.

I was referring to the blocking. Leach may very well be one of perhaps 3-4 true fullbacks left in professional football.

Paleocon wrote:

I was referring to the blocking.

Of course. Duh. Not sure how I missed that.

Although Leach didn't pass block as much as you might think.

Ray Rice pass blocked on 108 snaps.
Ricky Williams added another 28 snaps as a pass blocker.
Vonta Leach pass blocked on 56 snaps.

Leach run blocked a ton (378 of his 584 snaps) but wasn't their primary pass blocking RB.

Does that count blocks in which he later rolls out for a dump off?

*Legion* wrote:

Thin_J made my point. MJD's 123 yards a game came against defenses who had zero concerns except MJD. The Jags were the dead-last, 32nd ranked passing game. There was nothing close to a Torrey Smith or an Anquan Boldin, let alone both of them, for defenses to be concerned about.

And of course, there are things beyond the numbers. MJD is a much stronger short-yardage back - Ray Rice sat those plays out while Ricky Williams fought for the tough yards.

Ray Rice is also an awful pass blocker - least effective pass blocking RB in the league by Pro Football Focus's 2010 metrics, while MJD is among the top 15. (They haven't compiled a 2011 article yet, but from their raw chart rankings, Rice is still near the bottom of the league while MJD is still very high).

This is the same thing that happened to CJ with Vince Young. No one in hell was scared of Vince Young's passing so they constantly stacked the box against CJ. It makes even more surprising that he and the O line sucked so bad this year when they had a decent passer in the pocket.

boogle wrote:

Does that count blocks in which he later rolls out for a dump off?

I am uncertain but my guess would be that it does not count "chip" blocks like that.

Gumbie wrote:

This is the same thing that happened to CJ with Vince Young. No one in hell was scared of Vince Young's passing so they constantly stacked the box against CJ. It makes even more surprising that he and the O line sucked so bad this year when they had a decent passer in the pocket.

CJ's problem is that he struggles to make anything happen on his own. He's very lean and doesn't break tackles. He's fast as hell, but if the sweeping outside runs or those one-cut zone reads aren't there, he has trouble getting upfield. Put simply, he doesn't make contact after 3 yards and then drag guys another 5 yards as MJD did all season. That's just not the kind of player CJ is.

CJ needs his lanes, his daylight, and then he's so damn fast that it hurts. But without that, he's got a tough go of it, especially against defenses with some bulk. The last three times he's played Jacksonville, he's been completely ineffective, but you're still always scared if you allow him to get around the corner that one time, you'll watch him run 70 yards for a score.

Kind of a nice breakdown for the Bengals-Texans game from Barnwell over on Grantland today. He believes the Bengals will win.

So Jeff Fischer is deciding between the Rams and the Dolphins. I really hope he doesn't pick the Rams, the NFC West is already getting too competitive with Harbaugh, Whisenhunt, and Carroll as head coaches. I guess a division can't be bad for too long.

Elliottx wrote:

So Jeff Fischer is deciding between the Rams and the Dolphins. I really hope he doesn't pick the Rams, the NFC West is already getting too competitive with Harbaugh, Whisenhunt, and Carroll as head coaches. I guess a division can't be bad for too long.

The Jeff Fisher hype meter is ridiculously out of control at this point.

Quoted from an ESPN article

Fisher is 142-120 (.542) as a head coach. Twenty-two games above .500 in 16 years isn't overly impressive. In addition, Fisher has only had six winning seasons and had 10 non-winning seasons with the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans.

Fisher’s playoff record is 5-6. Three of those wins came in his first postseason in 1999, which led to a Super Bowl appearance. Since then, Fisher is 2-4 in the postseason.

Fisher won his division just four times in 16 years. Winning the division is very important for Miami, which is trying to close ground with the New England Patriots and coach Bill Belichick in the AFC East.

Fisher won his division just four times in 16 years. Winning the division is very important for Miami, which is trying to close ground with the New England Patriots and coach Bill Belichick in the AFC East.

Bill Belichick, the perennial loser in Cleveland - 1 winning season out of 5 years, .450 record, 0 divisional titles.

Coaches can only win as much as their team's talent level allows them. Fisher was handed a lot of poor rosters in Houston/Tennessee.

*Legion* wrote:
Fisher won his division just four times in 16 years. Winning the division is very important for Miami, which is trying to close ground with the New England Patriots and coach Bill Belichick in the AFC East.

Bill Belichick, the perennial loser in Cleveland - 1 winning season out of 5 years, .450 record, 0 divisional titles.

Coaches can only win as much as their team's talent level allows them. Fisher was handed a lot of poor rosters in Houston/Tennessee.

We've been over this before. A lot of talent has come and gone in 16 years. You can blame it on talent, Bud Adams, management etc. etc, but in the end he's just a mediocre coach. I know the media REALLY wants him to be and all the fans of the teams looking for coaching REALLY want him to be. Wait and see he will go to St Louis and be a huge disappointment. The only reason he lasted so long here was because we are a smaller market any of the larger market teams he would have been gone LONG ago.

Meanwhile, no one wants to give Brian Billick a chance:

-5 winning seasons in 9 years
-(80-64) record, (5-3) in the playoffs
-Super Bowl title

I think that qualifies him way more than Jeff Fisher. I am officially off the JF bandwagon, and hopping on the Brian Billick bandwagon.

Not that this matters, in 9 seasons, Brian Billick has seen 6 assistants go on to become NFL coaches. Jeff Fisher: 3. In 16 years. I would think if you're a successful head coach, your coaching staff is pretty much a revolving door, at least more revolving than 3.

Kush15 wrote:

Meanwhile, no one wants to give Brian Billick a chance:

-5 winning seasons in 9 years
-(80-64) record, (5-3) in the playoffs
-Super Bowl title

I think that qualifies him way more than Jeff Fisher. I am officially off the JF bandwagon, and hopping on the Brian Billick bandwagon.

Not that this matters, in 9 seasons, Brian Billick has seen 6 assistants go on to become NFL coaches. Jeff Fisher: 3. In 16 years. I would think if you're a successful head coach, your coaching staff is pretty much a revolving door, at least more revolving than 3.

Two words: Ozzie Newsome.

Edit: Whoa. Just went to doublecheck and make sure he was the GM when they won the Super Bowl, but he wasn't. Huh.

Texans over Bengals - Toss up game for me so I'm going with the home team and the non-sick QB.
Saints over Lions - I think this one won't even be close. Drew Brees at home on a big stage can beat anyone.
Giants over Falcons - Eli Manning in the playoffs vs Matt Ryan in the playoffs. Next please.
Steelers over Broncos - Tebowmania was a fun ride while it lasted.

It's always amusing to listen to the difference of opinion on head coaches from local people versus national people. The biggest issue right now IMO is that owners don't have patience to give a coaching staff enough time to win. 3-4 years is pretty much the max an owner will stick with a coach that doesn't immediately transform a losing team into a winner.