Fareed Zakaria on how to solve the debt.

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Interesting article.

I feel a bit self serving by mentioning this though, since he isn't saying anything that I haven't been saying constantly for the last 10 years. I would also, however, add that we could probably afford to cut our military spending by 25% and not endanger our security by one iota.

I think Paleocon is right about pretty much everything.
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Interesting read. I don't dispute his claims, but I do wonder how a 25% VAT would fare with the voters.

Thanks for sharing the link. I think the more often this kind of solution is offered in the press, the more ready the electorate will be to accept a sustainable fiscal policy.

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Oso wrote:
Interesting read. I don't dispute his claims, but I do wonder how a 25% VAT would fare with the voters.

Thanks for sharing the link. I think the more often this kind of solution is offered in the press, the more ready the electorate will be to accept a sustainable fiscal policy.

I hate having to say this, but it seems that this sort of "medium way" solution seems to be drowned out by the kind of "burn it down" anarchist claptrap that passes for "fiscal conservatism". There are folks from both the Democratic and Republican party that have been calling for exactly these sorts of solutions for decades, but all we're getting now is Tea Party idiocy 24/7.

I think Paleocon is right about pretty much everything.
-- Mex

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Do you hold out any hope for a Bipartisan Budget Comission approach?

It's been shut down, or at least neutered, so far. If Congress gets a sense of urgency, however...

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Oso wrote:
Do you hold out any hope for a Bipartisan Budget Comission approach?

It's been shut down, or at least neutered, so far. If Congress gets a sense of urgency, however...

Sigh. Not in this current political environment. I'm not sure what it will take, but something serious needs done.

I think Paleocon is right about pretty much everything.
-- Mex

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Paleocon wrote:
I would also, however, add that we could probably afford to cut our military spending by 25% and not endanger our security by one iota.

A 25% cut? That'll just take us down to spending $600 billion a year, double what we were spending in the 90s.

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At this point striking the Pope once with a sword is a completely reasonable action.

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OG_slinger wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
I would also, however, add that we could probably afford to cut our military spending by 25% and not endanger our security by one iota.

A 25% cut? That'll just take us down to spending $600 billion a year, double what we were spending in the 90s.

I figured I'd be generous just in case someone tried to say I was in league with the terrorists.

I think Paleocon is right about pretty much everything.
-- Mex

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Paleocon wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
I would also, however, add that we could probably afford to cut our military spending by 25% and not endanger our security by one iota.

A 25% cut? That'll just take us down to spending $600 billion a year, double what we were spending in the 90s.

I figured I'd be generous just in case someone tried to say I was in league with the terrorists.

You mean you aren't? sh*t, I better give DHS another call about your stockpile of WMDs.

Yonder wrote:

At this point striking the Pope once with a sword is a completely reasonable action.

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OG_slinger wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
I would also, however, add that we could probably afford to cut our military spending by 25% and not endanger our security by one iota.

A 25% cut? That'll just take us down to spending $600 billion a year, double what we were spending in the 90s.

I figured I'd be generous just in case someone tried to say I was in league with the terrorists.

You mean you aren't? sh*t, I better give DHS another call about your stockpile of WMDs.

Probably not a bad idea. There is a logical explanation for everything. The fertilizer, the diesel tanks, everything. Trust me.

I think Paleocon is right about pretty much everything.
-- Mex

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I'd totally vote for Fareed Zakaria for president. Everything I read by him is just a smart way of looking at the world.

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I have no objection to anything he's saying, but I question very much if it would be enough. My biggest reservation is on the VAT idea. If it were very large, it would be like throwing sand in the gears.

And, unless we fix our money, none of it will really matter, because with that hugely distorting signal screwing everything up, we can't even tell what we can afford.

Big defense cuts would be a good idea, too. We could cut by half and still outspend half the world.

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Regardless of how effective government-run health care might be, it's not for our society. It's for societies that pay for things.

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Malor wrote:
I have no objection to anything he's saying, but I question very much if it would be enough. My biggest reservation is on the VAT idea. If it were very large, it would be like throwing sand in the gears.

And, unless we fix our money, none of it will really matter, because with that hugely distorting signal screwing everything up, we can't even tell what we can afford.

Big defense cuts would be a good idea, too. We could cut by half and still outspend half the world.

Actually, China is the next nearest competitor and they spend less than 14% of our defense budget. Japan and Italy are #7&8 and together spend more than China does.

Here is a list of the top 15:

1 United States 607.0 41.5
2 China 84.9 5.8
3 France 65.7 4.5
4 United Kingdom 65.3 4.5
5 Russia 58.6 4.0
6 Germany 46.8 3.2
7 Japan 46.3 3.2
8 Italy 40.6 2.8
9 Saudi Arabia 38.2 2.6
10 India 30.0 2.1
11 South Korea 24.2 1.7
12 Brazil 23.3 1.6
13 Canada 19.3 1.3
14 Spain 19.2 1.3
15 Australia 18.4 1.3

The first number is budgets in billions of dollars. The second is percentage of world total.

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Sorry, I was thinking, "half the world combined", but didn't actually say that. Up until we ratcheted up global tensions during the Bush years, we were definitely outspending the entire rest of the world combined, but now that countries are feeling threatened, their military spending is going up, and we're being outspent slightly in aggregate.

I'm not sure how well that spending translates into real efficacy if we're not just beating up guys with RPGs. Against an actual military, we might find that our hyper-complex systems are hard to keep running for any length of time. Then again, they may end up being so overwhelmingly effective that they won't need to be running for very long.

Staats wrote:

Regardless of how effective government-run health care might be, it's not for our society. It's for societies that pay for things.

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If you include things like expansion of counter-terrorism in other departments, the number would increase 100~200b, depending on what one considers considers defense spending by non-Dept of Def departments.

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I'm actually kind of amazed Canada made the list. Not top ten, but still, on the list.

Malor wrote:

It was so far from close that you could insert your favorite hyperbolic description of distance, and it probably still wouldn't be far enough.

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It's for in case England wants their land back

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Over on MeFi a couple years ago, someone posted a link about a misadventure that some Canadian destroyers had gotten into.

One of the comments was, approximately, "I'm Canadian, and my first response to this post was, 'Wait, we have destroyers?'"

Staats wrote:

Regardless of how effective government-run health care might be, it's not for our society. It's for societies that pay for things.

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Color me crazy, but I would think that the first and most important step would be to stop spending like a drunken sailor on a 1-day pass.

His first step, which is to add another tax, seems about as effective at solving the core problem as telling a gambling addict to get a side job to pay for their habit.

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Malor wrote:
Over on MeFi a couple years ago, someone posted a link about a misadventure that some Canadian destroyers had gotten into.

One of the comments was, approximately, "I'm Canadian, and my first response to this post was, 'Wait, we have destroyers?'"

Well, we've got to have destroyers to protect our arctic sovereignty from those filthy Danes. The vikings may hove gotten here first, but they left, and it's ours now! No take-backs.

Malor wrote:

It was so far from close that you could insert your favorite hyperbolic description of distance, and it probably still wouldn't be far enough.

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I can understand why Canada has a big Navy. There is currently a big dispute over who "owns" the North Pole (like DanyBoy said) and I don't think "Santa Clause" has any claim over that region.If you ask me I'll put my money on the USA because it got a 600 Billion dollar 4% GDP military. Most other countries may have similar or lower % of GDP military but they don't even get close to the USA .

I think the USA can stay as scary with even half the military but when you have the power to tell everyone on the planet what they should or shouldn't do it's really hard to give it up.

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cdjaco wrote:
Color me crazy, but I would think that the first and most important step would be to stop spending like a drunken sailor on a 1-day pass.

His first step, which is to add another tax, seems about as effective at solving the core problem as telling a gambling addict to get a side job to pay for their habit.

Zakaria proposes ending the income tax for 90% of Americans, and replacing it with a system that encourages saving and discourages debt accumulation among consumers. How did you possibly arrive at that analogy?

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Big-picture, that's probably a good idea, but I don't think he realizes how unbelievably painful that would be. That would be a shock so severe, starting from such a weak economic position, that it might outright kill us.

Staats wrote:

Regardless of how effective government-run health care might be, it's not for our society. It's for societies that pay for things.

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I suppose the key quote from the article is this (near the end)

Quote:
Each of these policies could be phased in so that the timing is right. They could be pared back, especially if other savings and reforms are enacted.

I don't think he ever intended this proposal to be like flipping a switch. I also agree that it is practically impossible.

Hyperbole - THE BEST THING EVER

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I'd be willing to give the VAT route a try, if as he suggests it would mostly eliminate income taxes for low and middle class Americans. Certainly the path we're on leads to financial ruin. I'd like to see more emphasis on cuts to entitlements and federal spending in general, although to his credit Zakaria mentions some of those.

Generally speaking, I think taxes have to increase markedly AND spending needs to come down dramatically for us to get anywhere close to resolving the Federal debt. I know of no politicians that would support such a stance, and very few individuals that would either. Which sucks.

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Can we get back to how the US spends more money on defense during peace than we ever have during war time? More messed up is we spend more and more as our peace continues? I mean Reagan and Bush era spending along is close to 2 trillion dollars. I do not know how we change a status quo 4 generations in the making.

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OG_slinger wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
I would also, however, add that we could probably afford to cut our military spending by 25% and not endanger our security by one iota.

A 25% cut? That'll just take us down to spending $600 billion a year, double what we were spending in the 90s.

In the 90s the military was wholely underfunded, and we're reaping the repercussions of that today. Why do you think our intelligence is so bad? Our military so over deployed? Our technology behind where it should of been to counter the new threat? The 90s are not a good bar to measure where our military spending should be.

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Shoal07 wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
I would also, however, add that we could probably afford to cut our military spending by 25% and not endanger our security by one iota.

A 25% cut? That'll just take us down to spending $600 billion a year, double what we were spending in the 90s.

In the 90s the military was wholely underfunded, and we're reaping the repercussions of that today. Why do you think our intelligence is so bad? Our military so over deployed? Our technology behind where it should of been to counter the new threat? The 90s are not a good bar to measure where our military spending should be.

I think we can mostly agree, though, that we probably don't need the F-22 or the Navy's littoral warship. There is a hell of a lot of Maginot Line style investment in the military today that exists purely to fuel vendors.

I think Paleocon is right about pretty much everything.
-- Mex

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Paleocon wrote:
Shoal07 wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
I would also, however, add that we could probably afford to cut our military spending by 25% and not endanger our security by one iota.

A 25% cut? That'll just take us down to spending $600 billion a year, double what we were spending in the 90s.

In the 90s the military was wholely underfunded, and we're reaping the repercussions of that today. Why do you think our intelligence is so bad? Our military so over deployed? Our technology behind where it should of been to counter the new threat? The 90s are not a good bar to measure where our military spending should be.

I think we can mostly agree, though, that we probably don't need the F-22 or the Navy's littoral warship. There is a hell of a lot of Maginot Line style investment in the military today that exists purely to fuel vendors.

I'm pretty sure the F-22 was cut. I can't speak to what the Navy does or doesn't need, but if we want to stay #1 militarily that matters in both size and technology. Also, I wouldn't trust all the numbers above - not everyone's budget is as open as the US's.

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Shoal07 wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
I would also, however, add that we could probably afford to cut our military spending by 25% and not endanger our security by one iota.

A 25% cut? That'll just take us down to spending $600 billion a year, double what we were spending in the 90s.

In the 90s the military was wholely underfunded, and we're reaping the repercussions of that today. Why do you think our intelligence is so bad? Our military so over deployed? Our technology behind where it should of been to counter the new threat? The 90s are not a good bar to measure where our military spending should be.

Really? What are the exact repercussions of the 90's? Because I'm not sure that being able to fight two a pointless war on terrorism on two fronts is a good reason to have had more guns. More guns would have just made it a more expensive mistake than it already was.

We are facing the consequences of eight years of having a jack-ass for president, not a lack of military funding.

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KingGorilla wrote:
Can we get back to how the US spends more money on defense during peace than we ever have during war time? More messed up is we spend more and more as our peace continues? I mean Reagan and Bush era spending along is close to 2 trillion dollars. I do not know how we change a status quo 4 generations in the making.

You remember that whole "military-industrial complex" thing Eisenhower warned about? We've got that. We've got politicians openly defending military programs purely because they create jobs. Whether or not we need the weapon is secondary.

America's military budget is ludicrously huge. Way, way, way too big to defend a nation our size, especially when neither Canada nor Mexico has made any rumblings about rolling tanks across the borders. As the world police, America's military is way too small. That's why you hear talk of being "stretched thin."

In other words, our massive military budget isn't even remotely necessary for national defense unless you include, "destroying any nation that might ever be a threat to us, ever."

You will never, ever hear a politician say that. At least, not one with the power to change anything. If a Democrat says it, the Republicans will scream, "SEE!? WE TOLD YOU DEMS ARE WEAK ON DEFENSE!" If a Republican says it, they'll call him a RINO or a traitor and alienate him; you can be damn sure he won't get the support he needs to climb the ladder.

What we need, for this and for other necessary changes, is a long chain of high-minded martyrs. People who see what change needs to be done, and are completely willing to destroy their own careers pushing for that change. Their successor will do the same. Eventually, one person will climb atop the bodies of those who came before them, and they will finally break through the political bullsh*t that's strangling us.

If we could draw upon the greatest men and women in American political history since the birth of the nation, I'm not sure we'd have enough to form such a chain. I have a sinking feeling that politics tends to murder visionaries whereas business turns them into millionaires.

Paleocon wrote:

I think we can mostly agree, though, that we probably don't need the F-22 or the Navy's littoral warship. There is a hell of a lot of Maginot Line style investment in the military today that exists purely to fuel vendors.

We don't even need the Navy's figurative warship. *rimshot*

Shoal wrote:
I'm pretty sure the F-22 was cut.

You're pretty wrong the F-22 was cut. That was the line the Republicans used to attack Obama. He chose to complete the current order (as in, NOT cut the program) and did not chose to purchase above and beyond that order. The only way you can consider that a cut is if you thought America was going to buy infinity F-22s.

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Shoal07 wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
I would also, however, add that we could probably afford to cut our military spending by 25% and not endanger our security by one iota.

A 25% cut? That'll just take us down to spending $600 billion a year, double what we were spending in the 90s.

In the 90s the military was wholely underfunded, and we're reaping the repercussions of that today. Why do you think our intelligence is so bad? Our military so over deployed? Our technology behind where it should of been to counter the new threat? The 90s are not a good bar to measure where our military spending should be.

No, we're reaping the repercussions of funding the mujaheddin to fight the Soviets and then letting their country fail into chaos afterward. We're the ones who helped radicalize elements of Islam and play into the idea of that they were fighting some kind of holy war. And we're the ones who set up the conditions that let the Taliban take control of Afghanistan and provide shelter for AQ.

You also forget that the military itself claimed that the 90s level of spending was perfectly adequate for it to fight one theater war and two regional conflicts simultaneously. Hell, they used that logic to make sure we still spent $300 billion a year even though the Soviets were no longer a threat. That it turns out they couldn't even properly fight the equivalent of one regional conflict despite nearly tripling military spending doesn't mean we aren't spending enough, it means we're spending it on the wrong things. Stealth bombers at $1.2 billion a pop or carriers at $5 billion or so each don't do any damn good when we simply need more boots on the ground.

Yonder wrote:

At this point striking the Pope once with a sword is a completely reasonable action.