Where are the jobs - depends how you count, Part II
Friday, February 6th, 2004 - 12:52pm
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The nation's unemployment rate dropped to 5.6 percent in January to the lowest level in more than two years as companies added just 112,000 new jobs "” fewer than expected but enough to keep alive hope for a turnaround in the struggling job market.
Quote:
So what do you guys think? Many people here work in computer related fields. Do you think employment statistics which do not count the self-employed and independent contractors really measure what is going on in the economy? Some economists think hiring really is occurring in the economy, but it is not being reflected in the Labor Department's monthly survey of business payrolls. In the separate survey of households, employment jumped by 496,000 last month.The household survey counts self-employed workers and contract workers, which are increasing. The survey of businesses does not.
"They're not recording the outside contractors "” they're not reflecting something that is tremendously fundamental now to the American corporate scene, and that's outsourcing to outside contractors," Mayland said.
Reagan understood that the key to peace was never arms control. Security had nothing to do with the number of weapons, it had everything to do with the intention and power of those who possessed them. - Charles Krauthammer
I would prefer that they should count self-employed contract workers as ''employed''. But by the same token, I would prefer that they call an out of work software engineer working at wal-mart to feed his family as ''underemployed''. I realize that underemployment is hard to quantify, but I have also known several ''contractors'' who are only able to get 1 or 2 jobs a quarter and barely make ends meet.
I guess my point is that the government should look at reforming their process for determining employment numbers soon.
I never minded piracy. Anyone who minds about piracy is full of sh*t. Anyone who pirates your game wasn't going to buy it anyway! -Warren Spector
Why? We already track income through monitoring poverty statistics. If you picked a job skill that the economy is no longer providing employment for, that''s too bad - no different than if you made horse carriages or typewriters.
Reagan understood that the key to peace was never arms control. Security had nothing to do with the number of weapons, it had everything to do with the intention and power of those who possessed them. - Charles Krauthammer
I think that it is important because of the way that the statistics are used. They are often used as tools to judge economic health, civil unrest, and future growth.
When jobs are suddenly obsoleted, it can throw a monkey wrench into the economic gears and place a new burden on government assistance programs, consumer spending, and govenment tax income until the displaced labor adjusts.
Remember, these are people who have spent thousands of dollars and years of their lives on learning how to do this stuff. They probably won''t be able to switch gears to something as lucrative in a short period of time - this can cause civil unrest expressed via crime or voting the current party out.
I just think that the current job statistics cast a rosy tint over what I think is still a tough labor market and a slow economic recovery, and that we should look at changing or amending them to give people a more accurate picture of the economy.
I never minded piracy. Anyone who minds about piracy is full of sh*t. Anyone who pirates your game wasn't going to buy it anyway! -Warren Spector
You had me almost convinced, until this line. I always wondered why there was a huge spike in muggings committed by nerds after the tech bust of 2000...
Reagan understood that the key to peace was never arms control. Security had nothing to do with the number of weapons, it had everything to do with the intention and power of those who possessed them. - Charles Krauthammer
I just wonder whether the ""self-employed""
stats reflect a lot of people doing side jobs and
such as they look for work. Pampered Chef, for
example, could make one self-employed on an
income of $400 a month or so, and yet still not
be anywhere as useful as that job that was lost
at $3000 a month.
Outside contractors...Yeah, I can see that, but
again I wonder how many of those will be
contractors in a year. Easy come, easy go?
I think an awful large part of that statistic
reflects a sort of desperation employment, not
anything that''s going to shake the economy.
We have not suddenly become a country of
entrepreneurs, that I can see...
Robear
"Sometimes I go around saying, 'Kommisar Paulson has seized the commanding heights of the economy!'" - Paul Krugman, asked if recent changes to banking are socialistic.
Desperate how? Are you implying that just because someone chose to obtain skills he cannot market, other work is now beneath him? That''s an awfully arrogant attitude for anyone to have...especially if they are working at all.
Reagan understood that the key to peace was never arms control. Security had nothing to do with the number of weapons, it had everything to do with the intention and power of those who possessed them. - Charles Krauthammer
Maybe he meant desperate as in ''Crap I used to make $45K as a software engineer, but they let me go when my job got outsourced to India and now I have a family to support and have to take any job I can get just to survive.''
"That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history. "
- Aldous Huxley
Don''t you mean ""the employer took a job that he was letting me fill and decided to fill it with someone else who was willing to work more cheaply""? It ain''tyourjob, folks...
Reagan understood that the key to peace was never arms control. Security had nothing to do with the number of weapons, it had everything to do with the intention and power of those who possessed them. - Charles Krauthammer
You can be as pedantic as you like if it makes you feel superior, but I''d consider it common parlance. We can take a show of hands though. Is anyone besides Ral confused about the usage of ''my job'' in my earlier hypothetical quote?
"That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history. "
- Aldous Huxley
There''s the Ockham I remember - it only took you two posts to start making personal attacks
I''m not confused by your use of ""my job"". However, since you felt the need to bring up companies (evil, evil companies!) outsourcing - as if this was causing the problem - I thought it was appropriate to point out that calling it ""my job"" is inaccurate. It is the company''s job. The owners of that company create the job and provide for it. Being desperate because you are no longer competitive is unfortunate, but no one''s fault but your own.
Reagan understood that the key to peace was never arms control. Security had nothing to do with the number of weapons, it had everything to do with the intention and power of those who possessed them. - Charles Krauthammer
I wasn''t aware we had stopped being a country of entrepreneurs... When 70% of all jobs are at small businesses (including sole proprietorships), I think it is pretty clear that a large part of the economy is missed by an employment survey which doesn''t count self-employment, newly created businesses, and many small businesses at all.
Reagan understood that the key to peace was never arms control. Security had nothing to do with the number of weapons, it had everything to do with the intention and power of those who possessed them. - Charles Krauthammer
I did nothing of the sort. It was a hypothetical example of what I thought Robear might have meant by ''desperation employment'', i.e. someone who would take any work they could if it made the difference between their family starving or not.
Or would you rather someone in that situation go on unemployment or welfare instead until they found a job they considered ''acceptable''?
"That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history. "
- Aldous Huxley
Just curious what your theory is as to why all
the government and private sector economists
have not picked up on this in the last 15 years
or so since the survey started...?
Robear
"Sometimes I go around saying, 'Kommisar Paulson has seized the commanding heights of the economy!'" - Paul Krugman, asked if recent changes to banking are socialistic.
Ockham correctly interpreted my meaning in
the statement he cited, btw.
Robear
"Sometimes I go around saying, 'Kommisar Paulson has seized the commanding heights of the economy!'" - Paul Krugman, asked if recent changes to banking are socialistic.
Is there someone who wouldn''t do this? What''s your point? My point is that this job which you refer to as a ""desperation job"" is likely referred to by many, many other people who hold it as simply ""a job"". It is your own fault if you think you are above certain types of work, not a failing of the government or society as a whole.
Who knows. If there''s one thing government should be good at, it''s misinterpreting reality. But both the government and private sector economists acknowledge that the Employment Survey is not the whole picture, which is a good start.
Yeah, me too.
Reagan understood that the key to peace was never arms control. Security had nothing to do with the number of weapons, it had everything to do with the intention and power of those who possessed them. - Charles Krauthammer
I know, just trying to get rid of all the stuff referring to my thoughts as ""hypothetical"". Gave me the creeps, frankly, I ain''t dead.
Robear
"Sometimes I go around saying, 'Kommisar Paulson has seized the commanding heights of the economy!'" - Paul Krugman, asked if recent changes to banking are socialistic.