NFL Draft 2008

Maximus Nofunicus
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Grumpicus's picture
Location: ATX

Continuing my apparent reign as the commissioner of the GWJ SG&L forum - NFL division () and with a mere 10 days to go until the best national holiday ever, I decree it is time for a new thread.

Ocho-cinco wants a trade and apparently, the Saints want to draft a D lineman for the 4th time in 8 years. (Ok, ok, it's not as bad as 3 times in 4 years... but that stretch feels like just yesterday.)

Legion? Ya got that analysis ready? Rat boy?

Head Coach
*Legion*'s picture
Location: Monterey

Hah. No hulking draft preview this year, as I'm hard at work on a different football project. But I will certainly be here on draft day(s), rattling off my self-important analyses.

Jack Del Rio said no QB or WR for the Jags in round one this year. Obviously, a comment meant to declare satisfaction in Garrard and the free agent WRs, but also an easy thing to say given that there's probably no one worth taking at pick #26 at either of those positions.

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Lord of the Rats
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Steve McNair calling it quits.

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I'm just depressed that it is clear now that Jake Long will not drop to the chiefs at number five. I was hoping to see the Chiefs try to trade up tot number one to get him before the Rams.

Is Ryan Clady still a good choice for them here. They really need to rebuild their OL. Jake Long is the guy they really need.

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the pot and the kettle
boogle's picture
Location: Norman, OK

Well, I must say Air Mcnair on the outs is probably better for the Ravens. Still hate to see him go.

*Legion* wrote:

Ignore boogle, his PCs have hookers inside of them.

Lord of the Rats
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boogle wrote:
Well, I must say Air Mcnair on the outs is probably better for the Ravens. Still hate to see him go.

It will be interesting to see how it affects their draft. Will they go out and seek a future franchise QB or will they play the hand they've been dealt?

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the pot and the kettle
boogle's picture
Location: Norman, OK

Rat Boy wrote:
boogle wrote:
Well, I must say Air Mcnair on the outs is probably better for the Ravens. Still hate to see him go.

It will be interesting to see how it affects their draft. Will they go out and seek a future franchise QB or will they play the hand they've been dealt?

I really hope they don't jump on Ryan. I would rather see a CB or WR in round one and pick up a QB to develop along with Troy Smith in a later round like Flaco, or Brennan.

*Legion* wrote:

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Lord of the Rats
Rat Boy's picture
Location: Hitting. It.

They probably won't jump on Ryan and I wouldn't be surprised if he suffers the fate of Brady Quinn and starts dropping in the first round like Harry Houdini in a pool with lead weights attached to his ankles. Frankly, and *Legion* can feel free to try to prove me wrong, I just don't see this first round of the draft being the year of the quarterback.

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kaostheory's picture
Location: Chicagoish

Rat Boy wrote:
They probably won't jump on Ryan and I wouldn't be surprised if he suffers the fate of Brady Quinn and starts dropping in the first round like Harry Houdini in a pool with lead weights attached to his ankles. Frankly, and *Legion* can feel free to try to prove me wrong, I just don't see this first round of the draft being the year of the quarterback.

I completely agree, although I can't imagine why the Bears at 14 (15?) would pass by the top QB in the draft with their ragtag group of crap, although if one of the top 3 or so OT are still on the board, it would be tough to pass up even for a potential QB of the future.

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I usually look forward to the draft (that typically has been the best time of the year for Browns fans), this year I don't get to see a pick until the 4th round.

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*Legion*'s picture
Location: Monterey

Rat Boy wrote:
They probably won't jump on Ryan and I wouldn't be surprised if he suffers the fate of Brady Quinn and starts dropping in the first round like Harry Houdini in a pool with lead weights attached to his ankles. Frankly, and *Legion* can feel free to try to prove me wrong, I just don't see this first round of the draft being the year of the quarterback.

You're not wrong. Matt Ryan is the only QB in this draft that I have a first round grade on, and it's more like a mid-to-late 1st round.

Ryan is an average athlete who has those so-called "intangibles" that you like in a QB. He's big, sturdy, and poised. He clearly excelled in college (well, senior year, at least) on his talent, not on the talent of the rest of his team (of which there was little). He's got that going for him, but at the same time, you gotta wonder if you're looking at Drew Bledsoe minus the cannon.

Brian Brohm is one of those "system" QBs who lacks the arm strength that you really want from a 1st round QB. He racked up some big numbers in college, one 5-yard crossing route at a time. He's not someone I'd draft and expect to put on an aerial show. There's a lot to like in terms of smarts and decision making, but he may be limited in term of ultimate final potential.

Joe Flacco out of Delaware is the most interesting QB in the draft. He's got the best arm out of the potential first-day QBs, but he's a raw guy you draft and develop.

As for Chad Henne... he's one of those guys that might become a better pro than a college player, but he's very inconsistent and needs a lot of work.

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the pot and the kettle
boogle's picture
Location: Norman, OK

Rat Boy wrote:
They probably won't jump on Ryan and I wouldn't be surprised if he suffers the fate of Brady Quinn and starts dropping in the first round like Harry Houdini in a pool with lead weights attached to his ankles. Frankly, and *Legion* can feel free to try to prove me wrong, I just don't see this first round of the draft being the year of the quarterback.
I'm hoping for a competition in Baltimore between Troy and either Flaco or maybe Brennan. Those would be good later round picks. In the first round, OLB, WR or CB for Baltimore, preferably CB in my mind as McAllister ages/

*Legion* wrote:

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Head Coach
*Legion*'s picture
Location: Monterey

Troy Smith is a project. I don't think the answer is taking on another young project QB if the team thinks they will eventually have something in Smith.

I think there is a very good chance that the Ravens enter training camp with Kyle Boller, Troy Smith... and Byron Leftwich.

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the pot and the kettle
boogle's picture
Location: Norman, OK

*Legion* wrote:
Troy Smith is a project. I don't think the answer is taking on another young project QB if the team thinks they will eventually have something in Smith.

I think there is a very good chance that the Ravens enter training camp with Kyle Boller, Troy Smith... and Byron Leftwich.

Yeah, the main problem I see here is that the Raven's position in first round doesn't exactly add up with their needs. Maybe an O-Line man to help McGahee?
I don't know.

*Legion* wrote:

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Head Coach
*Legion*'s picture
Location: Monterey

boogle wrote:
Yeah, the main problem I see here is that the Raven's position in first round doesn't exactly add up with their needs. Maybe an O-Line man to help McGahee?
I don't know.

Especially in the top 10, it's best to throw need out the window and try and get an impact player.

Ryan Clady or Branden Albert would be nice scores for the offensive line.

It would be interesting to see what Baltimore would do if Sedrick Ellis is on the board. Ellis is a short, athletic one-gap DT, and the Ravens are a two-gap scheme.

A lot of mocks have them taking Troy corner Leodis McKelvin.

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the pot and the kettle
boogle's picture
Location: Norman, OK

Our D line is strong and we need to have a run game focus to settle a new QB so I'd say O-line.
But man, Ellis next to Bart Scott would be damn impressive.

*Legion* wrote:

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Head Coach
*Legion*'s picture
Location: Monterey

For all your draft needs, the "Emmitt Smith" 2008 mock draft.

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kaostheory's picture
Location: Chicagoish

The Dolphins make their pick OL Jake Long signs $57.5 million contract with $30 million guaranteed.

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kaostheory wrote:
The Dolphins make their pick OL Jake Long signs $57.5 million contract with $30 million guaranteed.

Damn. That's a lot of dough, though. Hopefully Clady will fall to the Chiefs. If they can trade Allen, and pick up another 1st round pick, they will get nice start on rebuilding.

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Jayhawker wrote:
kaostheory wrote:
The Dolphins make their pick OL Jake Long signs $57.5 million contract with $30 million guaranteed.

Damn. That's a lot of dough, though. Hopefully Clady will fall to the Chiefs. If they can trade Allen, and pick up another 1st round pick, they will get nice start on rebuilding.

That is a HUGE amount of money and it's less than JaMarcus Russel got last year ($61 mil, $31 mil guaranteed) and I think Jake Long has a much better chance of being a good NFL player. I don't expect Russel to ever make a pro-bowl.

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Quote:
That is a HUGE amount of money and it's less than JaMarcus Russel got last year ($61 mil, $31 mil guaranteed) and I think Jake Long has a much better chance of being a good NFL player. I don't expect Russel to ever make a pro-bowl.
I think the big difference is that Long's deal is a 5 year, and Russell's is a 6 year. Long gets to hit Free Agency that much quicker (and if he's as good as he thinks he is and stays healthy, makes even more money) and the Dolphins have a little less risk and financial exposure should he bust out.

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*Legion*'s picture
Location: Monterey

Minase wrote:
Long gets to hit Free Agency that much quicker (and if he's as good as he thinks he is and stays healthy, makes even more money) and the Dolphins have a little less risk and financial exposure should he bust out.

Long would have hit free agency quicker. However, there is a very damn good reason why the Miami Dolphins signed the #1 pick to only a 5 year deal.

The owners are able to opt out of the current CBA starting November 2008. As Peter King puts it, that's very likely to happen. When it does, the next few years progress according to a certain rule set defined by that CBA's exit clause.

One of those rules is that it extends the number of accrued years of service required to hit unrestricted free agency to six. That means that any player in this draft who is signed to only a 5 year deal will NOT hit unrestricted free agency when their rookie contract expires.

This allows the Dolphins, and any other team who signs a 5-year 1st round rookie, to re-sign their picks (after their contracts run out) at below-market value.

It actually has very little to do with protecting themselves from coughing up more money in a potential "bust" situation. Long's deal would have been around the same (guaranteed money-wise, which is the only truly meaningful number) under a 6 year deal. Russell is a QB and that position gets a bit of a premium in terms of bonus money. A deal with less guaranteed money than Russell's was expected this year. The real motivation here is preventing Long from reaching unrestricted free agency after his initial deal is up.

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This is version 1.0 of my first round "Big Board" - I reserve the right to radically alter it at any time.

1. Glenn Dorsey (DT, LSU)
2. Vernon Gholston (DE, Ohio State)
3. Chris Long (DE, Virginia)
4. Sedrick Ellis (DT, USC)
5. Jake Long (OT, Michigan)
6. Ryan Clady (OT, Boise State)
7. Darren McFadden (RB, Arkansas)
8. Branden Albert (OG, Virginia)
9. Keith Rivers (OLB, USC)
10. Rashard Mendenhall (RB, Illinois)
11. Chris Williams (OT, Vanderbilt)
12. Derrick Harvey (DE, Florida)
13. Mike Jenkins (CB, South Florida)
14. Leodis McKelvin (CB, Troy)
15. Philip Merling (DE, Clemson)
16. Jeff Otah (OT, Pitt)
17. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (CB, Tennessee St)
18. Matt Ryan (QB, Boston College)
19. Aqib Talib (CB, Kansas)
20. Limas Sweed (WR, Texas)
21. Jonathan Stewart (RB, Oregon)
22. Devin Thomas (WR, Michigan)
23. Quentin Groves (DE, Auburn)
24. Kenny Phillips (S, Miami)
25. Gosder Cherilus (OT, Boston College)
26. Dan Connor (OLB, Penn St)
27. Chilo Rachal (OG, USC)
28. Calais Campbell (DE, Miami)
29. Jerod Mayo (LB, Tennessee)
30. Justin King (CB, Penn State)
31. Felix Jones (RB, Arkansas)

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Allow me to add that it's *Legion*'s Big Board of Should, not Big Board of Will. But, that's rather obvious.

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*Legion*'s picture
Location: Monterey

Rat Boy wrote:
Allow me to add that it's *Legion*'s Big Board of Should, not Big Board of Will. But, that's rather obvious.

Of course. That's the difference between a draft board and a mock draft.

Mock drafts are tricky, as every team ascribes to varying levels of "drafting for need" versus "drafting the best player available". Most teams pay lip service to the latter, but a lot give in to the former.

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the pot and the kettle
boogle's picture
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Yeah.
I'm just saying I'll be on xfire and steam during the draft. Feel free to hit me up for discussion.
And I like your Ravens pick, shore up that run game.

*Legion* wrote:

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Location: Monterey

boogle wrote:
And I like your Ravens pick, shore up that run game.

#8 on my board isn't necessarily a pick for the Ravens. It's the eighth best player in the draft in my eyes. I most certainly don't expect the draft to play out this way (after all, I'd need Jake Long at #1 in order to even start doing that!)

I expect Branden Albert will go lower than #8, unless a team projects him as a tackle in their system.

The top of this draft is a good time for teams to get their lines in order. Plenty to choose from at DT, DE, OT, and even an elite-looking OG.

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Maximus Nofunicus
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boogle wrote:
Yeah.
I'm just saying I'll be on xfire and steam during the draft. Feel free to hit me up for discussion.
And I like your Ravens pick, shore up that run game.

If there's interest, I can probably host an open-source chat room on my site.

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Rat Boy's picture
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I'd like to join in, but on Saturdays at that time, I'm either hungover looking for caffeine or getting started early.

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*Legion*'s picture
Location: Monterey

The Vikings just gave up their 1st round pick (pick #17) and two 3rd round selections to the Chiefs for Jared Allen.

The Chiefs now have 6 selections in the first 3 rounds, lots to build on.

Making a move like that usually means that a team thinks they're right on the precipice. I'd like to know what the Vikings see to make them think that's them.

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Quote:
The Vikings just gave up their 1st round pick (pick #17) and two 3rd round selections to the Chiefs for Jared Allen.
Good for the Chiefs. They can certainly use the help, and with the depth at some of the core positions in this draft they should get good value.

Sounds like the Vikings are making a push for the playoffs, and I think they have a contender on their hands if they can get the QB position solidified... do you think they'll pick up Ryan/Brohm/Flacco, *Legion*? I like some of what Jackson can do, but he may turn out to be a bit brittle.

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