We're doomed in 2029. Or maybe 2036, whichever.
Wednesday, April 16th, 2008 - 10:55am
NASA has calculated that there's a 1 in 45,000 chance of the 200 billion tonne asteroid Apophis hitting earth in 2029. If it doesn't, there's a 1 in 450 chance it'll hit enough debris as to change its trajectory to hit earth on its next pass in 2036. This latter figure was determined by a German 13-year-old. NASA, you fail.
My question is, what are the chances it'll hit us in 2043?
NOTE: This is not a doodle bug.
I feel statistically dead already.
please forgive all lingual ridiculity - i'm definitely not an English native speaker
I hope they can narrow down the date a little bit more. I'd like to schedule all of my vacation time before it hits. It's "use 'em or lose 'em," you know.
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See, if Gore had won, we'd already have some sort of cosmic repulsor ray that ran on everyone's hopes and dreams.
Or, you know, maybe a few federal contingency plans for saving the goddamned planet!
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Don't forget about 2012. It's a virtual who's who of apocalypses. You got the reversal of solar magnetic poles, Mayan end times, and a 13 km. wide asteroid passing through the neighborhood.
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Eh, I'll deal with it later.
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He's totally serial. The cosmic repulsor ray is vital, if we're going to stop Manbearpig!
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Fedaykin98 wrote:
Didn't SG-1 take care of Apophis already?
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Hm. They can't be sure if it will hit the Earth, but they can be absolutely certain it will land in the Atlantic?
And it's only the collision that miraculously creates a ball of iron and iridium? What's the asteroid made of now, lollipops and cotton candy?
Fedaykin98 wrote:
I think they mean the heat from entry into the atmosphere would create a ball of that composition.
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Not after he came back several times to screw with them first.
One would assume that it contains the component ions to create iron and iridium once heated through atmospheric friction then cooled by splashdown in the Atlantic Ocean. Duh.
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I don't quite understand this.
O = Earth . = satellites o = asteroid
Now: O . o
Then: Oo.
After: O . o
How does the asteroid get from Now -> Then -> After without the chance of hitting satellites?
Fletcher wrote:
So it is made of lollipops and cotton candy? If we send a shuttle to it, can we set up a mining colony? Mmmm, freshly mined cotton candy.
Fedaykin98 wrote:
I have a hard time visualizing this, but do I understand correctly that if the asteroid's path were shifted downward (with respect to the Equator, then it would collide?
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A bit reminiscent of Major League and the "too high" comment, eh?
NASA: Nothing to worry about folks. No ELEs here. That asteroid will be passing by too closely to be of any concern.
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It sounded like they said that it would pass through a realm of space that is not considered a high population area for satellites. I think it's still a "probably won't happen" scenario instead of a definite.
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If we get an official release date of Spring 2030 for Duke Nukem Forever, then we'll know we are all truly doomed....
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Because you're trying to smush a 3d universe into a 2d illustration. The o's could be sitting around the equator and this bad boy goes over the North Pole.
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Because even though that region is "heavily populated" with satellites it's still mostly just empty space. The size scale changes when talking about outer space- a "close call" goes from a matter of meters to a matter of millions of kilometers.
It's all well and good until someone loses a torso.
Geosynchronous satellites orbit at about 22,000 miles and are typically strung out along the equator because it gives them maximum coverage (who wants to stare at the poles?). So the asteroid will be farther out than 22,000 miles as it crosses the equator, but then dip closer to Earth as it passes above (or below, depending upon its approach) the equator. Since it will be farther out than 22,000 miles at the equator, it will miss all the satellites hanging out there. It will finish passing Earth closer than 22,000 miles, but since it won't be the same orbital plane as the geosynchronous satellites, it won't hit anything on its way out.
Besides, there's only a couple of hundred geosynchronous satellites out there anyway and a lot of empty space.
Still, having an asteroid passing within 22,000 miles of the Earth is the equivalent of having someone shoot at your head and miss by less than a foot.
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As for crashing into the Atlantic, that's an easy call for something that size (unlike orbiting spacecraft not under flight control). Just look at the date and time it'll be in the area, then figure out which part of the Earth is facing into it's path. If it does hit around that particular time, it'll be in that part of the Earth, which they've determined will be the Atlantic.
Note to self - move to Colorado in 2028.
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Fedaykin98 wrote:
Doesn't this setup some sort of Thundarr the Barbarian scenario where the asteroid steals our atomosphere or somesuch?
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So looks like 2029 will be the year of dinosaur themed parties. Here is the wiki info on Apophis.
Oh boy, how I look forward to the end of the world. It would be so awesome if this asteroid hit the earth. I'd be sitting on a balcony with a drink and some snacks rocking out to music while watching the apocalypse.
I don't understand people who fear the end of the world. What's to fear? Nobody is going to be sad, after all.
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