After Bush

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There is an article in the Economist this week entitled "After Bush" in which the author lists out what he believes to be major challenges for the United States in the aftermath of the Bush presidency. I'll probably head over to the bookstore to read parts of it soon, but thought I'd start a discussion on this before doing so.

Given the damage done (and, at least in my anecdotal experience, even the most ardent Bush supporters I know admit that the impact of the Bush presidency has been resoundingly negative) what are the next steps for the United States? How do we proceed in an increasingly multipolar world now that we have squandered our short period of unipolarity? What are American challenges for the next 8 years?

My own take is that how we relate to Russia and rising Russian influence will become far more important than this complete distraction of "Islamofascism" that has hypnotized the mouth-breathing classes for the last 6 years. The sooner we get our heads out of our asses regarding the fiction of Islamic domino theories the better.

India and China will become their own regional power blocks. Their consumption of resources AND the promise of higher rates of return for American investment capital will have a dampening effect on the American economy.

Europe's GDP will continue to grow and eventually compete with our own. We may not see a Eurocentric unipolarity, but the day of the USA as the sole market of consequence are over.

There is only an up or down--up to a man's age-old dream, the ultimate in individual freedom consistent with law and order--or down to the ant heap totalitarianism,... those who would trade our freedom for security have embarked on this downward course.

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I still think we really need to let other countries take center-stage for a while as we step back, slow down, and re-evaluate our direction. We can't totally withdraw from the world scene but at this point we're only picking up speed and making bad choices because we won't take the time to think.

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I'd like step 1 to be a reorganization of the military. Our focus should be on stateless actors in the middle east and Russia. Reduce our presence in Iraq, Japan and South Korea, and close at least half of our bases in Western Europe and South America. End the war on drugs. Afghanistan should receive more support. Start mothballing our aircraft carriers and focus the air force more on controllable drones rather than expensive manned craft. End financial/military support for Israel and the 'Stans (except Afghanistan, of course).

Step 2 would be to reorganize our foreign policy. Strengthen our ties with India and the Eastern Bloc, creating a ring around Russia, China and the 'Stans. Recognize that the EU is becoming a major power and align ourselves closely with them. Take the ideas that are working for them - common currency, free trade and immigration throughout the EU - and propose the same here with every country in North America. At the same time, pressure the Euros to step up their efforts in Africa, which should be their equivalent to South America. Also pressure them to admit Turkey to the EU to help stabilize the region.

Step 3 would be to fix up our economy by overhauling our tax, (flat or VAT tax @ at least 20% - no exceptions), bank regulation, health care (especially the Bush medicare debacle) and military procurement systems. Legalize drugs and increase revenue through vice taxes on them. End earmarks, voice votes and voting 'present'.

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Sounds like some Brits can't wait to see the U.S. humbled:

USA 2008: The Great Depression

Link.

In practice, we are already as close as we can get to the E. Union. At this point, we're practically begging them to take a bigger role in the world so we don't have to, but they're hobbled in that respect to what amounts to an effective isolationist outlook. They're willing to send money and technical assistance, but they are not going to try to police anything in a big way (not criticizing for that, but that's the way it is).

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Funkenpants wrote:
They're willing to send money and technical assistance, but they are not going to try to police anything in a big way (not criticizing for that, but that's the way it is).

I'd sure like it if the US did that.

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LobsterMobster wrote:
Funkenpants wrote:
They're willing to send money and technical assistance, but they are not going to try to police anything in a big way (not criticizing for that, but that's the way it is).

I'd sure like it if the US did that.

I would also like to see an end to American adventurism, but I didn't want it to happen out of humiliating necessity. For this, Bush deserves no thanks.

There is only an up or down--up to a man's age-old dream, the ultimate in individual freedom consistent with law and order--or down to the ant heap totalitarianism,... those who would trade our freedom for security have embarked on this downward course.

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Minase wrote:
Also pressure them to admit Turkey to the EU to help stabilize the region.

The pressure would have to be on Turkey to get up to speed, not on the EU to let them in without meeting the set standards.

I don't know, self! I still kinda suspect that this sucks!

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Ah, the Bush years. I'll go out on a limb here and state that this whole mess is not completely his fault. It's our fault. Since WWII this country has been the proverbial bull in the china shop. We need to stop throwing our weight around militarily and assuming that other nations are just going to nod and grin. Did we learn nothing from the collapse of former rival Soviet Union? It could happen to us as well.

I sincerely hope the next president will lay the heck off the trigger finger. Focus on salvaging our economy and foreign policy. As for Islamofacism, we need top notch intelligence and political allies to combat terrorism, not armies. In addition, getting us off the oil addiction would basically reduce the Middle East into nothing but a sand box. That region is the richest source but not the only one. Remove their monopoly on oil and what would there be left to fight over?

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Heretk wrote:
Ah, the Bush years. I'll go out on a limb here and state that this whole mess is not completely his fault. It's our fault. Since WWII this country has been the proverbial bull in the china shop. We need to stop throwing our weight around militarily and assuming that other nations are just going to nod and grin. Did we learn nothing from the collapse of former rival Soviet Union? It could happen to us as well.

I sincerely hope the next president will lay the heck off the trigger finger. Focus on salvaging our economy and foreign policy. As for Islamofacism, we need top notch intelligence and political allies to combat terrorism, not armies. In addition, getting us off the oil addiction would basically reduce the Middle East into nothing but a sand box. That region is the richest source but not the only one. Remove their monopoly on oil and what would there be left to fight over?

I dunno. I hate interventionism as much as the next guy, but a certain amount of tossing your weight around is necessary in order to maintain an environment conducive to American markets and American interests. That said, the use of American force should be as the surgeon's scalpel. The fact that we have had a drunken child loose with the blade does not justify the abolition of modern medicine.

There is only an up or down--up to a man's age-old dream, the ultimate in individual freedom consistent with law and order--or down to the ant heap totalitarianism,... those who would trade our freedom for security have embarked on this downward course.

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Paleocon wrote:
Heretk wrote:
Ah, the Bush years. I'll go out on a limb here and state that this whole mess is not completely his fault. It's our fault. Since WWII this country has been the proverbial bull in the china shop. We need to stop throwing our weight around militarily and assuming that other nations are just going to nod and grin. Did we learn nothing from the collapse of former rival Soviet Union? It could happen to us as well.

I sincerely hope the next president will lay the heck off the trigger finger. Focus on salvaging our economy and foreign policy. As for Islamofacism, we need top notch intelligence and political allies to combat terrorism, not armies. In addition, getting us off the oil addiction would basically reduce the Middle East into nothing but a sand box. That region is the richest source but not the only one. Remove their monopoly on oil and what would there be left to fight over?

I dunno. I hate interventionism as much as the next guy, but a certain amount of tossing your weight around is necessary in order to maintain an environment conducive to American markets and American interests. That said, the use of American force should be as the surgeon's scalpel. The fact that we have had a drunken child loose with the blade does not justify the abolition of modern medicine.

Agreed. I'm not advocating complete pacifism. I am suggesting that we walk softly while carrying a big stick.

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Quote:
The pressure would have to be on Turkey to get up to speed, not on the EU to let them in without meeting the set standards.
I agree that Turkey needs to improve, but I've also seen Eurosnobbery going on with claims that the Turks aren't ethnically 'true Europeans' and are so backward (and Muslim!) that they'll never be good enough to join.

I don't see them as that far away from where Poland or some of the other new EU members were a few years back, and EU membership has benefited those states enormously.

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Location: Miami, FL

Heretk wrote:
Ah, the Bush years. I'll go out on a limb here and state that this whole mess is not completely his fault. It's our fault. Since WWII this country has been the proverbial bull in the china shop. We need to stop throwing our weight around militarily and assuming that other nations are just going to nod and grin. Did we learn nothing from the collapse of former rival Soviet Union? It could happen to us as well.

I sincerely hope the next president will lay the heck off the trigger finger. Focus on salvaging our economy and foreign policy. As for Islamofacism, we need top notch intelligence and political allies to combat terrorism, not armies. In addition, getting us off the oil addiction would basically reduce the Middle East into nothing but a sand box. That region is the richest source but not the only one. Remove their monopoly on oil and what would there be left to fight over?

I'm sorry but that doesn't work anymore.

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Paleocon wrote:

I dunno. I hate interventionism as much as the next guy, but a certain amount of tossing your weight around is necessary in order to maintain an environment conducive to American markets and American interests. That said, the use of American force should be as the surgeon's scalpel. The fact that we have had a drunken child loose with the blade does not justify the abolition of modern medicine.

A drunken child that doesn't believe in modern medicine, no less.

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I'd like to see the prosecution of everyone from the past eight years involved in anything illegal.

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Edwin wrote:
I'd like to see the prosecution of everyone from the past eight years involved in anything illegal.

Doesn't matter if they're prosecuted. They've destroyed all the evidence. No evidence, no crime.

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Clearly the old saying has no root in actual truth. Comparison withdrawn. Insert "drunk soccer hooligans."

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Quote:

My own take is that how we relate to Russia and rising Russian influence will become far more important than this complete distraction of "Islamofascism" that has hypnotized the mouth-breathing classes for the last 6 years.

I didn't know that it was Russians who rammed airplanes into WTC 6 years ago. Always learning something new.

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Shiho, what point are you making? Care to make a claim?

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Just pointing out the absurdity of the rather bold claims made by the OP.

Distraction ? Mouth-breathing classes ? Talk about denial.

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Funkenpants wrote:
They're willing to send money and technical assistance, but they are not going to try to police anything in a big way (not criticizing for that, but that's the way it is).

Not quite true. The EU is gathering what are called "Battlegroups" to act as fast deploying forces to deal with regional and international peace-keeping efforts when needed. It is only at a very embryonic stage right now due to the many different legal requirement for nations to deploy troops internationally but the EU is certainly keen to improve it military clout. As we speak, a EU force is heading to Chad to station themselves along the border with Darfur to try and stave off a potential flash point. They cannot enter into Darfur as they legally won't be allowed without U.N. approval.

While the EU certainly won't become a major military power anytime soon (nor does it wish to be) but it does want to stave off future humanitarian disasters like the former Yugosalvia and in Africa. Equipment such as the Airbus A400M is evidence of this intent.

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Oh and for those without the current issue, here is the podcast of an interview with the Economist Washington DC Bureau Chief on that special report.

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With respect, what's absurd about them? Yeah, the mouth-breathing hyperbole was not needed, but there's several things here - what is Islamofascism (especially in the context of 9/11)? Is terrorism a greater threat than a hostile national power? What's the relative danger of terrorism within the US?

There's a lot here on both sides. For example, we lose over 40,000 a year to car accidents and just wave it away, yet we fear terrorists showing up in Peoria with AKs to shoot down kids at the elementary school. At the same time, we can't *ignore* it. But it's entirely possible that the damage we have done to ourselves with the war has outweighed anything a terrorist can do. (And consider that even a dirty bomb probably won't kill 40,000 - we have our risk priorities messed up, and it's hard to think it's not politically motivated.)

We lived through a decade or more of terror in the 70's and early 80's. This is not really very different, except that we are far more scared of a remote, unlikely threat than we were then. After 6 years of getting the covert war mostly right, we need to rethink the idea that we should cower helplessly whenever Our Leader changes the threat color (usually before some embarrassing revelation, or a close political race.) To me, Bush and Cheney have told us that Americans should rightfully live in fear, and I for one am bothered by that - and embarrassed by my own initial reactions to 9/11, which were right in line with the hyperbole of terror.

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I'd guess that the culture of fear will continue irrespective of who gets into the White House next, especially given that the US economy appears to be in for a rough ride over the next few years. Giving people an external threat keeps them from paying as much attention to domestic issues. China and India are going to trash the rest of the world, and given that the EU and the US can't do anything about that, they can harp on about foreign issues they can influence.

I don't think it will take much for the US to regain goodwill in the rest of the world. With the exception of the usual troublemakers, who will hate you guys whatever you do, I reckon most countries strongly associate the foreign actions of the US over the last 8 years with Bush personally. I think there'll be noticeable temporary warming to the US even if McCain gets in. Naturally, if he immediately invades Iran then they will dislike the US again, but he'll have a cosy probation period IMO.

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Axon wrote:
Not quite true. The EU is gathering what are called "Battlegroups" to act as fast deploying forces to deal with regional and international peace-keeping efforts when needed.

Relatively tiny formations without the logistical muscle to back them up over the long term. A bunch of European nations have been dickering around for years deciding whether to buy even a few C-17s collectively to support operations abroad. That tells me they aren't very serious about overseas missions. Even Great Britain, the most militaristic of the European states, can't get government support to buy all the helicopters it needs to support operations abroad. A lack of funding is a constant issue for European militaries. You see some contributions in Afghanistan, but without U.S. involvement it wouldn't be happening.

So we'll see little missions here and there, provided they don't require much of a commitment of resources. But nothing major. The will is not there. The spending is not there.

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Minase wrote:
End financial/military support for Israel

This will never happen no matter who's in charge.

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shihonage wrote:
Just pointing out the absurdity of the rather bold claims made by the OP.

Distraction ? Mouth-breathing classes ? Talk about denial.

I agree that "mouth-breathing classes" was unnecessary, but denial? Are people in denial if they aren't continually, deathly afraid of terrorism, even though they are statistically more likely to be killed by lightning strike?

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I wonder if I'm more likely to win the multistate lotto than I am to be killed by an "Islamofascist".

There is only an up or down--up to a man's age-old dream, the ultimate in individual freedom consistent with law and order--or down to the ant heap totalitarianism,... those who would trade our freedom for security have embarked on this downward course.

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Paleocon wrote:
I wonder if I'm more likely to win the multistate lotto than I am to be killed by an "Islamofascist".

Well you're less likely to be killed by an Islamofascist than just any terrorist. Because, y'know, I've heard rumors that even non-Muslims can be terrorists.

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LobsterMobster wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
I wonder if I'm more likely to win the multistate lotto than I am to be killed by an "Islamofascist".

Well you're less likely to be killed by an Islamofascist than just any terrorist. Because, y'know, I've heard rumors that even non-Muslims can be terrorists.

Yeah, but we don't tend to overreact when Tim McVeigh blows up a building.

There is only an up or down--up to a man's age-old dream, the ultimate in individual freedom consistent with law and order--or down to the ant heap totalitarianism,... those who would trade our freedom for security have embarked on this downward course.