Bold Predictions 2007 Score Card

CEO
Certis's picture

It's been almost a year since the Bold Predictions 2007 article was posted. It had over 100 comments, many of them bold predictions of your own. Here's your change to toot your own horn or eat some crow.

Quote:
- The PS3 price will drop faster than the PS2 did in North America. Even sooner in Japan. A $50 price drop on both models by the end of the year.

Well, there WAS a fast price drop. Sure, one model was discontinued and another introduced, but I'm taking this one as a win.
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- The Xbox 360 will refresh the premium model with a larger hard-drive and new ports. Two SKUs will continue in the market. The "core" pack will remain without a hard-drive or HDMI port as Microsoft pushes the price for entry to the Xbox 360 lower. No price drops this year, expect more value-add bundles.

CHA-CHING. Except the HDMI part.
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- The Nintendo Wii will continue to sell well and gain ground on the Xbox 360 sale numbers, coming within 1 million by the end of the year. Game releases will trickle through to March with the new Metroid leading the second wave of AAA releases. Mario Galaxies will come out around Christmas. No price drops or new models of the Wii will happen this year.

Kind of right, except the Wii surpassed the 360 by millions this year. Amazing.
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- Windows Vista will be essential for gamers by next Christmas. PC game stability will improve and graphics capabilities will surpass the console by the end of the year.

*shuffles feet*
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- Supreme Commander (PC) will gain critical praise from RTS fans and remind us how poor the market for hardcore RTS games is. Command and Conquer 3 (PC, 360) will do much, much better thanks to a more casual approach and KANE.

I'm not sure, so I'm going to say I was right.
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- Master Chief will not remove his helmet in Halo 3. If he does, you still won't see his face.

BOYAH!
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- The Vanguard launch will be a catastrophe, adding to the stable of games SOE has destroyed with crappy launches before they even get a chance to gain an audience.

UNGH!
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- The PS3 will suffer from a weak release list until March, redeeming itself with an aggressive push for large, downloadable games. Tekken 5 and Gran Turismo HD are just the beginning.

I'm going to call this a yes. Games like Warhawk, Everyday Shooter and Calling All Cars speak to this. Didn't redeem too much, though.
Quote:
- There will be a PSP refresh this year, much like the DS Lite. UMD support will remain, but a built-in hard-drive will drive users toward downloaded software straight to the PSP -- without needing a PS3 or PC to facilitate the transfer. The form factor will shrink, the screen will support touch functionality and battery life will improve.

They just forgot to include the touch screen, that's all. And the hard-drive.
Quote:
- Age of Conan will bring the MMORPG genre as close to "3rd generation design" as we've seen so far. It will be a system hog and the single player mode will fall short of what we expect from Funcom, but it will gain a profitable following.

Carry over!
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- Guitar Hero will not move systems for the Xbox 360 like it does the PS2. Excitement and sales surrounding the series will cool on all systems.

Doh!
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- Grand Theft Auto IV will be delayed until next year. A rare occurrence for Rockstar.


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- Metal Gear Solid IV will rock your socks "… on the PS3 first with the Xbox 360 following six months later.

Carry over!
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- Crysis will look good, but the gameplay will come up short after four hours.

Doh!
Quote:
- Alan Wake? Not this year.


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- Video game conventions will sprout like mushrooms, spreading fan attention thin and leaving the big companies doing their own events. Smaller publishers and developers will look for more online momentum than ever before.

E 4 All, anyone?
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- Sony will lean on the PS2 with a stronger release list than expected this year as the PS3 gains traction. The PS3 will remain locked in 3rd through to 2008.

Ok, sure.
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- Bill Harris will be hired as an image consultant for Sony, but only because they beat Electronic Arts to the punch.

Maybe not in public, but I swear Sony seems to be shaping up ...

Yeah, it's scary. I'm staring into the abyss right now, and it's staring into me, which I think is kind of a dick move on the abyss's part. - Nyles

Junior Executive
Donator
Kurrelgyre's picture
Location: The disputed territories of Cary, NC

Quote:
- The Xbox 360 will refresh both SKUs with an HDMI port and the "premium" version will also get a larger hard-drive. The "core" pack instead will drop in price by $50 and replace the wired controller with the wireless version.

I didn't expect a 3rd SKU and there was only a $20 drop for the Core/Arcade pack. HDMI and wireless are now in all of them, though.

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- Sony will not drop the PS3 prices going into the holidays, instead bundling Spider-Man 3 with both models and adding an HDMI cable to the 60GB version.

Wrong.

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- The PSP will see a $20 price drop and come bundled with a 1GB memory card and a coupon for a free PS1 game download. Hard drive rumors will persist but yield nothing.

Wrong. No hard drive on the "slim", but yet again didn't foresee the separate SKUs.

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- Microsoft will introduce the ability to use any attached USB hard drive for music and video storage with the Xbox 360. It will require formatting the drive specifically for the '360 and cost 4000 points.

Really wrong.

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- The Wii will show strong hardware sales but weak software sales apart from its Virtual Console selection and anything touched by Nintendo. Ports will be the order of the day throughout 2007 with original titles pushed into 2008.

Partly right, as few Wii games "charted" this year. Most of Nintendo's franchises shipped as promised, though.

Quote:
- Samba de Amigo for the Wii will be announced.

UNGH.

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- Windows Vista will not become the dominant operating system in 2007 as piracy and demand for support from corporate customers keeps XP going.

One more time, baby, UNGH.

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- The Games for Windows initiative will not affect sales with EA and MMO publishers notably refusing to play along.

EA's drinking the Kool-Aid but WoW just kept going, and going, and going...

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- A surprisingly complete Starcraft 2 will be announced in the Fall with a late 2008 release date.

Announced in Spring with no attempt at a release date.

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- Fervor for Guitar Hero will cool as the song list for the third installment proves underwhelming. Rumors of Sitar Hero will prove to be false.

Wrong (although I found the game lacking personally). Metacritic may show III having a lower overall score than II, but it still sold like gangbusters. And no Sitar Hero announcements.

Xbox Live:Kurrelgyre | PSN:Kurrelgyre | Steam:Kurrelgyre
"Never know when you might need a tank." -Johnston Green, Jericho

Its good to be the Koning
Koning_Floris's picture
Location: gamerswithjobs.com

Quote:
My very very sad predictions.

- Quake wars will suck
- No Battlefield Clone will get as big and good as BF2.
- By the end of the year there still won't be a great First Person Melee game.

Now I just hope I am so awesomely wrong.

The problem with my predictions is that they were based on opinions. And in my case, 1 and 2 are dead on. I didn't like Quake Wars, and there still is no good BF2 replacement.
3 is also right, although I did play the source mod "Age of Chivalry" which is pretty awesome. But that is a mod, and I was referring (in hindsight) to a commercial game.

I don't watch, I interact!

Raajts So Sexy
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dejanzie's picture
Location: the land of Belgiums

Quote:
Duke Nukem Forever will be released

I bluffed, and lost.

Roo: "Just to cheer you up if any of the above made you sad: Boobies."
Koning_Floris, on my online 'skills': "Stinking is a skill too!"

Office Linebacker
Uberstein's picture
Location: Ft. Myers, FL

Quote:
- Alan Wake? Not this year.

This will be the game that drives me (and others, I suspect) to take the Vista plunge. To me at least, it's the first must-have AAA title (that I'm aware of) that will require Vista.

"I have not supped of Buffy, nor have I supped in any wise during the absence of Firefly. When Firefly returns again in glory, then shall I sup at the table of Whedon." - Fedaykin98

This is Not a Scary Clown
Donator V5.0
Alien13z's picture
Location: Minneapolis

I think you can give yourself a "correct" on Crysis. Boring.

You can't make somebody love you, but you can buy a bigger television.

uncapitalized
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ranalin's picture
Location: Knoxville, TN

Koning_Floris wrote:
Quote:
My very very sad predictions.

- Quake wars will suck
- No Battlefield Clone will get as big and good as BF2.
- By the end of the year there still won't be a great First Person Melee game.

Now I just hope I am so awesomely wrong.

The problem with my predictions is that they were based on opinions. And in my case, 1 and 2 are dead on. I didn't like Quake Wars, and there still is no good BF2 replacement.
3 is also right, although I did play the source mod "Age of Chivalry" which is pretty awesome. But that is a mod, and I was referring (in hindsight) to a commercial game.

Shadowrun came close but when you had a sword you switched over to 3rd person.

Gamer Tag: Rantyr

Not Without Incident
Donator V2.0
Quintin_Stone's picture
Location: Cary, NC

Did Supreme Commander really get any critical praise from RTS fans? Most comments I remember seing were negative or middle-of-the-road.

Fedaykin98 wrote:

Good lord, I wouldn't have expected brilliance like that from that nemeslut Quintin Stone!

Lord of the Rats
Rat Boy's picture
Location: Hitting. It.

Let's check out mine:

Quote:
- This is the year that X-Box 360 starts to pull ahead in terms of quality. It started with GoW and it looks to only continue with the likes of Lost Planet, Crackdown, Halo 3, Bioshock, Mass Effect, etc.

Ding!

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- Fervor over the Wii will start to slow down up until Mario Galaxies comes out. Likewise on the PS3 until MGS4.

Bzzzt, at least on the PS3/MGS4 angle.

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- A certain announcement by LucasArts about bringing a certain franchise of theirs to the Wii in 2008 will set the nerd world aflame with anticipation.

Kind of.

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- Unfortunately, most will find MGS4 to be too much like MGS2 and not enough like MGS3.

Well, it certainly looks a lot like MGS2.

Quote:
- This is the year that PC exclusivity starts to die off and the impetus to buy a game on a console rather than the PC will reach its highest point. We may only start to see a few PC-only games coming from the big publishers (Dragon Age, Silent Hunter IV, Supreme Commander) as pressure continues to build to release titles on as many platforms as possible.

Ding!

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- Vista won't be the big upgrade that Microsoft wants it to be. Most will stick to XP for the next year or so (assuming Vista ever comes out).

Ding ding ding ding!

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- Master Chief will take off his helmet to reveal...another helmet in an homage to Robert Stack's character in Airplane!

So close, so close.

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- Dragon Age will continue to mock Certis by continuing to exist.

Bwahahahaha!

Quote:
- As an addendum to Certis' Vanguard prediction, Vanguard will be a colossal failure. It'll drag down Perpetual Entertainment and kill the only other project they had running that might have been a better MMORPG: Star Trek Online.

Even when I'm wrong, I'm right. True, Sigil developed Vanguard, but Star Trek Online developer Perpetual is in a deep load of trouble, too.

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- Ghost Recon: Advanced Warfighter 2 will be a disappointment if it brings back the helicoptor gunner stages.

Must have, since I never played it and don't know many people who did.

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- X07 will see the debut of Gears of War 2.

Curses!

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- The UMD format will finally be put out of its misery as Sony frantically tries to jumpstart Blu-Ray.

Bah!

Quote:
- This will be the year that WoW peaks. It's all downhill from here.

Well, when you have South Park and Mr. T plugging your game, it's impossible to get any bigger.

"Men like sex, thus boobies! Oogaba!" - dejanzie

"If ads put your sanity to the test
come on down to Rat Boy's nest!
light up a stogie, and soon you'll see
how rock can be commercial-free!

'I'd hit it!'" - HP Lovesauce

From A Certain Point of View
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Parallax Abstraction's picture
Location: Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Quote:
- This is the year that PC exclusivity starts to die off and the impetus to buy a game on a console rather than the PC will reach its highest point. We may only start to see a few PC-only games coming from the big publishers (Dragon Age, Silent Hunter IV, Supreme Commander) as pressure continues to build to release titles on as many platforms as possible.

Ding!

How do you figure? There was a ton of PC exclusive titles this year, many of which have done very well (though yes, not necessarily in North America) and several of which have received expansions or sequel announcements.

Quote:
- Ghost Recon: Advanced Warfighter 2 will be a disappointment if it brings back the helicoptor gunner stages.

Must have, since I never played it and don't know many people who did.

There was a weekly game of this going on for months. It did have gunner stages as well but I liked it a lot more than the first one as did many. I think it sold better too. *shrug*

"Just because something's popular, that sure doesn't make it right." -Penn Gilette
"You can't fix stupid." -Ron White
blog.digital-lifeline.ca

Lord of the Rats
Rat Boy's picture
Location: Hitting. It.

Parallax Abstraction wrote:
Quote:
- This is the year that PC exclusivity starts to die off and the impetus to buy a game on a console rather than the PC will reach its highest point. We may only start to see a few PC-only games coming from the big publishers (Dragon Age, Silent Hunter IV, Supreme Commander) as pressure continues to build to release titles on as many platforms as possible.

Ding!

How do you figure? There was a ton of PC exclusive titles this year, many of which have done very well (though yes, not necessarily in North America) and several of which have received expansions or sequel announcements.

I was referring to the big publishers and none of the PC exclusives could even hope to touch any of the top console games in terms of sales.

"Men like sex, thus boobies! Oogaba!" - dejanzie

"If ads put your sanity to the test
come on down to Rat Boy's nest!
light up a stogie, and soon you'll see
how rock can be commercial-free!

'I'd hit it!'" - HP Lovesauce

Not Without Incident
Donator V2.0
Quintin_Stone's picture
Location: Cary, NC

Edit: Sorry, wrong thread.

Fedaykin98 wrote:

Good lord, I wouldn't have expected brilliance like that from that nemeslut Quintin Stone!

What's a Tag?

Quote:
I still think MS or Sony will copy Nintendo's Wii controller verbatim. Others may copy it as well like Apple or set top box manufacturers.

Carry over. There are rumors of MS copying it running around lately.

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Spore will be released in 2k8. It won't do as well as Sims or SimCity. It will a big hardcore hit though.

Yep no Spore in 2k7. So far so good.

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Wii will continue to sell like hotcakes because it offers a new experience for the masses. Wii gets a price drop by the end of the year also to accelerate this rapid adoption. I say it tops the 360 by end of year.

Well right except it didn't even need a price drop to sell like hotcakes.

Quote:
PS3 will do better than the media thinks right now. IT just needs games and time for BR to kick in.

The jury is still out. I think it's doing better than how the gaming media potrayed it a year ago, but it still isn't over the hump. It could still crash and burn.

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Sony allows Unreal 2k7 to be played with mouse/keyboard on the PS3.

Yesiree Bob!

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No reason to get Vista for pcgaming this year.

Score!

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Mac pc market share increases 25%.

Yeppers.

The Wizahd
Donator V2.0
Brizahd's picture
Location: hyborea

Quote:
I am pulling these out of my tin foiled cover ass.(don't wanna be probed by aliens you know)

Auto Assault will go the way of Guild wars and be free to play.
Master Chief will remove his helmet and reveal he is a cyborg, but the game will end with his possible death.

Microsoft will add a new feature for adults and start offering porn movies.
At the end of 2007 one of the Big 3 will call it quits and pull a sega and only make games.
Disapointingly still no Halo movie, but a cgi cartoon series will apear
Namco will make a MMO fighting game.
Eberron will be an expansion for Neverwinter Nights 2
Sadly this will be possible due to DDO floundering
Sega having felt the pinch from EA sportswise, and Sonic not doing well will once again develop a console.

Quote:
Ms will release a handheld gaming system, but it will only play xbla games.
Also plays mp3s.
Doesn't cost much either, practically giving them away.

Ah well maybe next year...

Head Coach
*Legion*'s picture
Location: Monterey

Quote:
Draft Losman over Favre

Damn!

Gaming / PC Tech Blog: Blast Processing - www.blastprocessing.net
Xbox Live: Legion SB | PSN: Legion_SB

"Damn, your comedic timing is awesome." -- Spaz, *Legion* Fan #1437

All your sietch are belong to us
Donator V3.0
Fedaykin98's picture
Location: Houston, TX

"Let's see how we did."

Quote:
- PS3 price drops, at least one of which is assured, do not significantly help sales. PS3s will be readily available in stores for as long as Sony makes them. New (as in, non-Resistance or other previously-announced) PS3 exclusives will be fewer than those for the 360 or Wii, and will come only from Japanese companies. The majority of these will be timed exclusives of less than a year.

Yeah, baby, yeah! But a little obvious.

Quote:
- The Wii becomes the most installed console whenever Nintendo's units shipped overtakes Microsoft's units sold, but the 360 maintains a strong position in the market as the console of choice for multiplayer gaming and the hardcore crowd. There will be a price drop in the premium package by the end of the year.

Part one is a carryover I believe, whereas parts 2/3 are right on. But still, not a terribly "bold" prediction.

Quote:
- Vista has a very low adoption rate; most "sales" are OEM. Few games offer any incentive to play on Vista rather than XP. If Halo 2 PC ships this year, its sales will be actively and substantially hindered by the Vista requirement (this is probably true for any year).

<---- very proud of his accurate Vista prediction; things are picking up.

Quote:
- PC gaming continues to decline. Despite the omnipresence of the PC, few outside of the hardcore FPS/RTS crowds play anything other than Solitaire and web-based games.

Boo yaa! Now we're cooking with gas! What has UT3 sold, four copies? Whatever, I'm calling this a bull's-eye.

Quote:
- IPTV will not be worth experiencing in 2007 due to implementation and television programming (shows, sporting events) issues. Current television providers will fight tooth-and-nail to lock up exclusives to maintain their market share, with an emphasis on sporting events.

Wow, I don't even remember thinking about IPTV last year, but it definitely hasn't taken off. I'm not sure about the second part, but I feel good about the overall prediction.

Quote:
- At the end of 2007, the DS will be the most-installed video game system on the planet (of the current gen; excludes the GBA). Between the Wii and the DS, our perceptions of what gaming should look like will continue to be turned on their heads, and hardcore gaming will become ever more niche. More than 3x intstalled DSes compared to PSP, more Wiis than 360s or PS3s, possibly combined. Low price point and simplicity of interface win the day.

Damn, it feel good to be a psychic.

Quote:
- Online voice chat for the Wii! Still, Wii multiplayer functionality will not be as streamlined as XBL. The PS3 will attempt to copy XBL (while posturing their service as somehow original), but regardless of how well they clone it, it will be irrelevant in a world of few installed PS3s and few multiplayer exclusives. Multiplatform multiplayer games will sell best on the 360, already the online console of choice in 2006.

Everything but the Wii voice chat.

Quote:
- Guitar Hero for the Wii, featuring wireless controllers!

YEAH BABY!

Respect the skills, my friends. Respect the skills.

Quote:

Would be a good idea. I plan to have Logan sit in for me when I am on my honeymoon.

- Legion, taking "keeping it in the family" to a whole new level.

Xbox Live: Fedaykin98