Major changes expected in Iraq strategy
Friday, October 20th, 2006 - 11:51am
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/19/AR2006101901907.html
As I've pointed out in another thread, I honestly think this is mostly political vaporware, but it appears that the ISG is likely to make recommendations that are not consistent with the "stay the course" suicide pact. With heavy hitters like James Baker saying that we need to "cut and run", what is our plan going to be?
I suspect we'll start seeing a lot of backpeddling and revisionist history starting November 8th.
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That, and this will all be made to look like "their idea":
"This is not a cut-and-run. This is a strategic reorganization of resources for combined synergistic success."
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Remember, I predict they will blame the whole thing on Democratic intransigence, if not actually on Clinton. There'll be muttering about it for decades on the right.
"Sometimes I go around saying, 'Kommisar Paulson has seized the commanding heights of the economy!'" - Paul Krugman, asked if recent changes to banking are socialistic.
I suspect you are right. The Neocon cult of irrationality is like Glenn Close in the bathtub in Fatal Attraction or Jason's limp body after getting struck by a bus. I imagine some rehashed version of it will come back to ruin America again.
This is the internet! In our natural environment, atheists run in packs and have dictionaries! --- JoeBeDurndurn
Many foreign policy experts believe that the commission could sway President Bush more than most such study groups because of Baker's close ties to the Bush family.
I don't see this happening. I expect this report to just go on the pile and fade into the press's ten-day memory the way all such studies do. Remember all the trumpeting about the new "clear, hold and build" or "inkspot" strategy? That was actually ratified by the White House and Condi, and where is it now?
I suspect Bush is just going to continue this way through 2008 and then dump the problem in someone else's lap. Then whatever happens, they'll blame the new president for "not following the plan that we gave them, which would have worked out if they didn't get cold feet."
I actually tend in that direction, but recent developments are giving me food for thought. I guess I'll see more credibility in the change of direction argument if Rumsfeld abruptly retires and Baker takes his place. Even still, I'd see that as mostly a change of players unless Cheney falls on a borrowed sword and Scowcroft takes his place.
This is the internet! In our natural environment, atheists run in packs and have dictionaries! --- JoeBeDurndurn
Just to let you know what we have to expect from the Neocons:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolchsto%C3%9Flegende
This is the internet! In our natural environment, atheists run in packs and have dictionaries! --- JoeBeDurndurn
What's going on in the news today with Iraq. Their PM is rejecting the idea of a timetable? I know I must be missing something.
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Well, it looks like we've effectively cut the PM off at the knees. Any hope that there would be any legitimacy in the political process just went down the crapper this morning when we decided to bomb Sadr City (and commanding the Iraqi Army to move in) without notifying the Iraqi government. Maliki is promising that that will be the very last time that happens, but something tells me that horse done left already. No one really believes the government is sovereign now.
This is the internet! In our natural environment, atheists run in packs and have dictionaries! --- JoeBeDurndurn
Oh, that's just lovely.
Unfortunately, if I slash my wrist with my lightsaber it cauterizes instantly. - PurEvil on emo Star Wars plots.
So, this shows how even when things look bad, there's even worse I guess.
He must be furious we ordered an attck on his cleric allies stronghold using Iraqi Forces. I suppose it goes to show we dont trust him either if the goal was a high level individual in the clerics militia zone.
Might as well hand the nation over to that cleric and be done with it at this point, or at least half the nation. Pick another powerful Sunni cleric to control the other half and build a fence between them. (Fences are becoming fashionable arent they) We could call it a Theocratic Democracy, err a Democratic Theocracy... oh i dunno
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Oh trust me, it WILL get a whole lot worse as a result of this latest action. Pretty much all hope of a legitimate Iraqi government just evaporated this morning. The Iraqi Army is now simply viewed as local mercenaries under the employ of the Americans.
This is the internet! In our natural environment, atheists run in packs and have dictionaries! --- JoeBeDurndurn
it is kind of starting to look like in about 20 years Iraq will be back to, or worse off, than before. but then again, iraq wasn't invaded for THEIR benefit was it?
"What could be wrong? Hmm. Too many potatoes in my computer, that's it."
Hey. Rome wasn't burned in a day.
This is the internet! In our natural environment, atheists run in packs and have dictionaries! --- JoeBeDurndurn
It is called "scorched earth", and this is what Soviets tried to do leaving Afghanistan and what Germans did leaving Finland. A beginning of a retreat with a bang so big, it can't be called anything else but victorious.
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If that is our intention, that puts us in the company of some pretty unsavory characters. I, possibly romantically, put even Bush's motivations higher than that. That said, I agree that the net effect will be the same. The Iraqis will inherit a broken country and years of civil war. If they are lucky, an Iranian backed strongman will take over quickly (if brutally) and reduce the duration of the slaughter. Bad news for the Sunnis to be sure, but it's just their turn to get screwed anyway.
This is the internet! In our natural environment, atheists run in packs and have dictionaries! --- JoeBeDurndurn
I dont see Iraq as scorched earth. It sounds too medievil, too conventional. Poisoning of wells, burning of cities, destroying everything in the wake of a moving army, yadda yadda.
Isn't scorched earth a bit more along the lines of determined policy of making the country un-liveable. 60 - 100 iraqi's dying a day is an un-liveable outcome in my book, but the factions there seem to have as much stake in causing this as anyone at this point.
Take Chechnya on the otherhand, wouldnt that qualify as true scorched earth policy. An objective of bringing the province to its knees through total destruction of its industry, cities and agriculture?
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This is over the top. There is no evidence that the U.S. military is planning some kind of scorched earth policy or embracing widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure as a punitive measure. We'd love to see MORE infrastructure in place so we didn't have all the Iraqis complaining that they don't have enough electricity, clean water, garbage collection and all the other lack of services that makes living in the place a nightmare.
Yup. It is hard to give the Bush admin credit for this kind of malice when it is so obvious that their sin is incompetence.
This is the internet! In our natural environment, atheists run in packs and have dictionaries! --- JoeBeDurndurn
If we were to exit the country in a haste facing the uniformly hostile Iraqi sentiment, how much would we care what Iraqis are complaining about? If Iraq was to develop into a second Iran after our departure, wouldn't some doctrine in one of the Oval Office's desks drawers call for crippling of that country as much as possible as we bid adieu? It's not going to be called "malice", it's a "strategic contingency". I won't even be surprised if some oildfield charges would happen to blow up to "deny the potential enemy regime a strategic resource" as we're pulling out...
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Since the country is already crippled and we have the example of post-Saddam looting to show what happens when order breaks down, we wouldn't need to bother.
Lets not forget that the Kurds are largely autonomous in Iraq (They have their own modern airport and are making their own buisness deals) and would presumably be able to resist a Iranian dominated state in Iraq.
Do Turkey and Iran team up to crush Kurdish oppositon. Will either sit by and have a Kurdish state on their borders?
Does the whole mess destabilize Turkey over the long run?
All the fun that can be had with lines on a map.
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