The Iran War
Friday, January 6th, 2012 - 5:53pm
I think we're due for an Iran War catch-all.
For starters, Vali Nasr writing in the Bloomberg View explains the situation from an Iranian point of view.
Robert Wright at The Atlantic riffs off that and points to the assassinations and bombings occurring inside Iran, the existing sanctions, threatened sanctions, and the American refusal to even consider diplomacy as evidence that the United States is now committed to provoking a war with Iran.
I think at this point there's a good chance that the United States has already committed to to a hot war with Iran, and that at least a faction of the Iranian government is ready to oblige them.
An army of nightmares, huh? Let's get this party started.



Well didn't we just finish up one on paper at least? We have to have a minimum of 2 wars going on at all times.
Bear wrote:
Seems that way.
Cato's Benjamin Friedman: Iran's Bluster and Weakness.
Interestingly, I take the opposite conclusions from the information he collects in the article. While Iran's military is not an offensive threat, they are well situated to close the Straits of Hormuz, even to a U.S. carrier group (one of three in the region now). A land invasion is (or at least should be) out of the question for the United States, so any conflict would be fought primarily at sea and in the air.
An army of nightmares, huh? Let's get this party started.
US Navy rescues Iranian sailors from pirates
I'm really curious to see what the government's response (or lack thereof) is to this.
"There should be a help line that criminals could call to check out the viability of their plans. Just have them describe their plan, and then the help desk employee could explain, "No, that is a stupid plan. You will get caught immediately." -Funkenpants
f*cking asshole shoots off mouth in yokel backyard
So... I guess if the F-35 ever gets produced, you'll have Canadian backup.
Quote:
— SpacePPoliceman, on Joe Paterno and responsibilityAnd note that Iran, of all the players involved, is the only one that hasn't invaded anyone in many decades. Arguably, if you count the Islamic Revolution as the formation of a 'new' Iran, this Iran has never invaded anyone.
The real problem is that Iran has oil, and they are not subservient to the United States.
Elewis17 wrote:
That, and the insistence of some in that country that Israel needs to be "wiped from the face of the earth".
Other than that, they're downright wonderful.
“When I discovered a new plant, I sat down beside it for a minute or a day, to make its
acquaintance and hear what it had to tell.” -- John Muir
The person who supposedly said that doesn't even control Iran's military so it would be exceptionally hard, if not outright impossible, for him to make that happen. The person who does control Iran's military has only said that Iran would (rightly) retaliate if attacked by Israel or America.
Yonder wrote:
The US now exports more oil than we consume as of 2011.
Steam
It amazes me to find an intelligent person who fights against something which he does not at all believe exists. -Gandhi
Yeah, but we're still holding a grudge for Thermopylae.
I think Americans are starting to get very sick of war. But then most of us are so far removed from the reality of being at war that it might not make a difference.
A Cigar, much like Scotch and Monogamy, is an acquired taste.
McChuck wrote:
Well this isn't going to help the war effort:
Iran's foreign ministry on Saturday labeled the U.S. Navy's rescue of 13 Iranians from pirates who had hijacked a fishing vessel a "humanitarian and positive" act.
"We consider the actions of the U.S. forces in saving the lives of Iranian seamen to be a humanitarian and positive act and we welcome such behavior. We think all nations should display such behavior," Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told broadcaster al Alam.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/01/07/iran-hails-us-rescue-sailors-as-...
“When I discovered a new plant, I sat down beside it for a minute or a day, to make its
acquaintance and hear what it had to tell.” -- John Muir
So, a positive comment from Tehran, mostly un-spun by Fox. Did I wake up in an alternate universe or something?
Ulairi wrote:
That's because it was praising the U.S. military. They were so confused it slipped through.
An army of nightmares, huh? Let's get this party started.
That was a mistranslation, perhaps deliberate. Arabic doesn't map directly to English, but the essence of what he said was that Israel would pass from the Earth in the fullness of time. It wasn't so much a call to action as an observation.
Of course, that's not what you heard in the corporate media. There must be A Big Threat at all times, or you won't buy papers and/or watch the TV, and you won't support wars.
Elewis17 wrote:
NPR has a good story laying out the current American attacks and Iranian counters - except for the unspoken, unverified assumption that Iran is not only pursuing nuclear weapons, but is close to gaining them.
An army of nightmares, huh? Let's get this party started.
And the reason for that isn't because we're afraid of them attacking Israel -- Israel is armed to the teeth, and would turn Iran into glass in minutes. It's because it forever puts that oil out of the reach of our conventional military. And it is not acceptable for a bunch of Middle Easterners to steal our oil right out from under their own feet.
Make no mistake, Iran is a terrible place, but from the perspective of most of the world, America is much more dangerous.
Elewis17 wrote:
I have trouble believing our top brass would allow a hot war with Iran right now. The numbers just don't crunch, especially if they want to wrap it up before Iran gets a nuke. You might say they don't get to make that call, but our civilian government would be wise to listen to their advice on such matters. It is their job, after all.
Speaking of civilians, I don't think Obama wants a war with Iran. Sec. of State Clinton rattled that saber for a while, then vanished off the face of the earth. The same thing happened under the Bush administration, when Powell started to clash with the party line. They were both muzzled. That indicates to me that the CiC does not want that particular saber rattled.
Which makes a whole lot of sense, because war is terrible, even if (and I'm not saying it is) it's the right thing to do.
If you want to play the "some in that country" card, we've got a lot of nutcases in our country, too, and what ever happened to our core beliefs that everyone, everywhere, has the right to express an opinion, no matter how stupid or violent that opinion may be?
I think that Malor has it right. Iran had a moderate, largely secular government. We wouldn't support it because it didn't want to follow our orders, and it was overthrown. Now we have a fundamentalist theocracy. I'm not saying we get to decide which government another nation will have, but we can definitely support opposition movements.
NOTE: Not a doodle bug.
Steam-XBox-PSN: Lobstermancer
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45840626/ns/meet_the_press-transcripts/t/mee...
A presidential hopeful has made a campaign promise to go to war with Iran. And note, Mr. Gregory never asks him if degrading their nuclear facilities constitutes an act of war (which it is), and if he's prepared to violate the Constitution and go to war without Congress's approval (which he would).
Steam | Guild Leader of GWJ on Realm of the Mad God
Rezzy wrote:
Well this prolably won't help:
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — An Iranian court has convicted an American man of working for the CIA and sentenced him to death, state radio reported Monday, in a case adding to the accelerating tension between the United States and Iran.
http://www.cnycentral.com/news/story.aspx?id=705197#.Twr-n3ovcXg
“When I discovered a new plant, I sat down beside it for a minute or a day, to make its
acquaintance and hear what it had to tell.” -- John Muir
It might make sense, if we were not taking the steps we are. Imagine if another country tried to place oil export sanctions on the United States, enforced by a blockade. We would immediately, and rightly, interpret that as an act of war. The Obama admistration has stopped talking and started acting, which to me indicates that the decision has already been made.
FTFY. Our assumption that we can indeed decide which government another nation will have is one of the primary causes of our current problems with Iran. Supporting opposition movements simply strengthens their regime and maintains our status as the enemy of Iranian self-determination.
An army of nightmares, huh? Let's get this party started.
The more I read about the whole Hekmati situation, the more I have to admit that the Iranian allegations seem entirely plausible. If he really was just visiting his sick grandmother, he's got to be the silliest, most naive person on the planet. Even that strains credulity.
I think Paleocon is right about pretty much everything. -- Mex
Paleocon is entirely right --DanB
I agree with everything that Paleocon said... --Boudreaux
Paleo is right on. --Legion
I love Paleocon. --- SallyNasty
A decent story on Hekmati from the Washington Post, including this gem of a quote:
So you'll be letting those Iranian oil ships through to sell their product, right? The double standard is palpable.
An army of nightmares, huh? Let's get this party started.
I think we should just dispense with the whole pretense of the impartiality of international law. We have the only blue water navy. As a result, we are the only nation allowed to park aircraft carriers (with enough nuclear weapons to wipe out life on half the planet) within sight of another country's coast with impunity. Admitting such may make us a bully, but at least it eliminates the piercing irony.
I think Paleocon is right about pretty much everything. -- Mex
Paleocon is entirely right --DanB
I agree with everything that Paleocon said... --Boudreaux
Paleo is right on. --Legion
I love Paleocon. --- SallyNasty
I firmly believe that if Iran powers up a facility capable of producing nuclear warheads, it will be made to magically disappear, just like Osirak.
Quote:
— SpacePPoliceman, on Joe Paterno and responsibilityYep. And then they'll continue to produce warheads at their other facilities, including the underground, strike-hardened ones.
NOTE: Not a doodle bug.
Steam-XBox-PSN: Lobstermancer
Just an FYI but I'm pretty sure aircraft carriers have not carried a nuclear arsenal for quite awhile.
I asked my wife the same thing last night. She replied with "stop being a moron and wash the damned dishes" -- Paleocon asking his wife about zombies
I believe most carrier battle groups have at least one ICBM sub.
Just in case.
Anyone who posted in this thread is a racist.*
*Except me. - Certis
Boomers operate independently. Carrier groups have at least one attack class sub whose job it is find and kill other subs before they can get close to the carrier.
Either way the Persian Gulf is the worst place on the planet for our blue water navy. It's shallow, narrow, and surrounded by land. That's not a good set up for a carrier group that was purposely built to detect and intercept attacking Soviet aircraft hundreds of miles away in the open ocean. It wasn't designed to be a big ass target that operates within range of land-based missiles.
Yonder wrote:
Not to mention, once boomers deploy their job is to disappear. That's much harder to do and MUCH more dangerous in shallow waters. Very few people other than a handful on the ship and land have any idea where they are but they're not getting anywhere near the Persian Gulf. Besides, they wouldn't need to, they are fully capable of hitting most of the gulf from the Atlantic.
We have 18 Ohio class subs, most if not all carry Trident missiles which have a range of 4,000+ miles. Safe to say, the SSBN's are running somewhere deep and quiet.
“When I discovered a new plant, I sat down beside it for a minute or a day, to make its
acquaintance and hear what it had to tell.” -- John Muir
The U.S. Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta, openly admits that there's no evidence Iran is developing a nuclear weapon.
So despite being permitted to pursue nuclear energy under the non-proliferation agreement, and with no evidence that the Iranians are pursuing a nuclear weapon, we'll still attack them because of what they aren't doing. Treaties ... what are they good for anyway.
An army of nightmares, huh? Let's get this party started.
Seriously, though. Treaties have asymmetric value. For the powerful, it is a device to which one can hold the weak to account. For the weak, it is a cause with which they can appeal to an indifferent audience. They are really only of symmetric value between equals.
I think Paleocon is right about pretty much everything. -- Mex
Paleocon is entirely right --DanB
I agree with everything that Paleocon said... --Boudreaux
Paleo is right on. --Legion
I love Paleocon. --- SallyNasty